I actually am one of the few that want Morales back.
Many would argue with Hart/Morrison/Smoak now it would be a waste and meaningless to sign Morales. I've been pushing to get Morales back to DH against RHBs, and play 1B against LHBs when Smoak should be sitting. That was before the Hart/Morrison signing/trade. But I still am for it, considering Hart/Morrison can play LF/RF/1B/DH.
It was reported that Hart put together a pretty intense and awesome scouting video to supposedly "prove" he is more than 100%...and very impressive. Our Infield is VERY set, and 1B/DH can be played with great matchups, with the only exception being we need a backup Catcher....which I'm hoping we land Kurt Suzuki (the best Defensive catcher on the market) could be a great/positive influence on Zunino.
We have to remember that we still have numerous teams with "Strong Interest" in Franklin, and a number of teams with 1B needs not knowing what they are going to do. I'm expecting a trade, that will knock us all over.
I wanted Ellsbury and Granderson very badly too in the OF, so yes our OF isn't at the level that I was personally hoping for, but I did want Gutz back on an approx $2M base salary. And now $1M base is even better. With Saunders, Ackley, Gutz, Morrison, and now Hart all rotating through the OF...I think that is an OF that can hold it's own in 2014 defensively and offensively on proper pitching matchups!
We are currently sitting at $80M in 2014 Payroll, with an additional $9M in incentives. I "think" the M's budget for 75% of contract incentives, so that puts the current payroll in the $86M range. Lincoln stated in late October that we would surpass the 2013 $95M budget that we never spent. Plus we have $25M in MLB TV money coming to us early in 2014. Paid off stadium, so no lease fee. We won't even touch on the ROOT Sports Network Ownership deal, since no one has any clue on the revenues that will generate.
Seattle could "easily" take payroll to $120-$130M with the $25M in added cash from MLB TV.
I would like:
1. Kurt Suzuki $1.5-$3M
2. One of Price/Lee/Hamels (whichever one doesn't require us to part with Walker/Paxton OR Zunino
3. Tanaka "if" posted
4. Morales $8M/yr 3yr (Can't see him getting more at this point). Considering he may have to wait until after 2014 draft to sign, Seattle would do well to just resign him if we end up losing the draft pick. Just my thoughts.
5. I also wanted Balfour or Benoit, but now would be ok with Rodney who will be a lot cheaper then Benoit and Balfour.
But, depending up the Balfour physical with the O's this could be a major blow on his expected salary & years, enough to put other teams in question. This will devastate Balfour's value like the Napoli issue last offseason going from an expected 3yr $39M to a 1yr $5M deal in BoSox. I'm still shocked after BoSox pulled that off that he resigned with them this offseason. Of course a WS Ring changes things, which us Seattle fans wouldn't understand.
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Q. Why should we care about Kendrys Morales? The Mariners have five big slow guys who hit as good as him.
A. Actually not.
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Q. How so?
A. Sometimes, we sabermetricians get snow-blinded by RATE stats. Sometimes, we can gain in the "sense of proportion" department by considering VOLUME stats.
Here is a table of the Mariners' leading hitters, the last five (5) years, by Runs Created.
| Year | Player | Runs Created |
| 2013 | Seager | 89 |
| 2013 | KENDRYS MORALES | 86 |
| 2009 (!) | Franklin Gutierrez | 79 |
| 2012 | Seager | 77 |
| 2009 | Jose Lopez (!!) | 77 |
| 2009 | Russell Branyan (!) | 77 |
| 2010 | Chone Figgins (??) | 68 |
| 2013 | Rauuul | 66 |
| 2012 | Michael Saunders | 66 |
| 2013 | Smoak | 64 |
| 2010 | Franklin Gutierrez | 58 |
| various | Jaso, Smoak, Montero, Ackley | 58, 55, 54, 54 |
| 2009 | Ken Griffey Jr (!?) | 53 |
I left off three Ichiro seasons, for dramatic effect - he got 103, 90, and 61 in those seasons. But with Ichiro's three, and the 17 above seasons, you have the top 20 hitting seasons since The Jack and Tony Show began.
There were a grand total of 20 player-seasons, the last five years, in which a Mariner totaled fifty runs created. That's four a year -- your middle of the order. Suppose I told you, "Hey! I can get you a left fielder and that dude will rack up 50 RBI for you!"
That will be Blengino's legacy: "In those years, the Mariners were searching for 50-RBI players."
Without the slightest exaggeration, that's where the Mariners have been. A 50-RBI man, or a 50-runs man, has been a hard target for them. Sixteen player-seasons, the last five years, have exceeded 50 RBI. Three guys a year have topped 50.
We ain't talking 80 here, gentlemen: the Mariners can't find a player to drive in fifty. And that's because they can't get a player worth 50.
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Q. Why should I EVER look at volume stats? Rate is where it's at.
A. Dr. D also starts with rate stats. But you better not allow yourself to become OBLIVIOUS TO the volume stats.
In the NBA, the San Antonio Spurs have a part-time center who consistently nails down Top-10 finishes in WAR. His name is Tiago Splitter. (Not that kind of splitter!)
The problem is, he does it in 15-, 20-minute flashes, against second stringers -- much like John Jaso put up a 142 OPS+ here by doing it in spots, against opponents who were not focusing on him. It's one thing for a "two" guard to shoot 45% off the bench, drifting into the soft spots of the defense; it's another thing for Kobe to shoot 45%, taking 20 shots a game against defenses that are maximized to stop him.
The fact that Tiago Splitter has a fabulous lifetime WAR rate ... well, that doesn't exactly make him equivalent to Dwight Howard and Tyson Chandler, now does it?
The fact that a John Jaso can post a 100 Runs Created line, in part-time play, isn't quite the same as Frank Thomas banging in 100 RBI every year for a decade.
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Q. Meaning?
A. The fact that the Mariners have had a few, part-time, 120 OPS+ performances ... that isn't quite the same as Kendrys Morales being a certified 120 OPS+ hitter.
Check the table again. Morales is a legit 80, 90 runs created in 2014, hard on the barrelhead. The Mariners have a few players who aren't. ::coughlomocough::
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Q. You're recommending a signing?
A. Not at all. Just pointing out that there are petted sabermetric favorites, and then there are MOTO hitters. Kendrys Morales would be the latter.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
The Kendrys doesn't play outcome is absurd. He hits better than everyone on the M's except for Hart, Cano and Seager. It gets old to see good hitters, such as Beltre, Sexson, Morse and Johjima live to regret playing for Seattle. The badwill amongst hitters probably hurts future signings. Kendrys is the super switch hitter we hope that Smoak may one day turn into. There should be room for him on the roster. If there isn't then room could be made very easily. I hear that first basemen are a hot commodity this season.
or maybe it's more about the money which might be required to land him. I don't think he's a killer add to this org with the depth they've built at 1B with Smoak, Hart and LoMo, but I side with Doc in wanting a diamond-hard HITTER in the middle of the order. I've seen too many rallies absolutely DESTROYED by an Endy Chavez, or Brendan Ryan, or , etc.. to be ok with not ensuring a rock-solid middle of the order. Kendrys accomplishes that, so he's got that going for him. Nelson Cruz even accomplishes that, and on paper he seems like a slightly more valuable player in general, and maybe even more so to this team specifically.
Kendrys Morales vs. Nelson Cruz is a tougher pick for me than I expected. Morales isn't likely to get $50mil, so what's he looking at...$10m x 3years? Cruz is still being discussed as a legit '#2 add' contract, something well over $50mil with his asking price closer to $100mil.
So which is better: Morales at $10mil x 3years or Cruz at $15mil x 5years PLUS the forfeiture of the draft pick to the M's BIGGEST CURRENT RIVAL?
To me it's pretty easy at those numbers...close the gap in their salaries and I'm obviously adjusting my thinking. But I do think one thing is pretty clear: Kendrys Morales won't be signing any time soon. The M's would be well-justified in putting his ~$10mil/year toward a ~TOR pitcher, and I assume pretty much every other team in baseball is thinking the same thing. Once the SP market sorts itself out, we'll see how badly teams want to spend $10mil/year for Kendrys Morales. I don't think he's bad value at that whatsoever, but he's a complimentary, non-impact piece for a winning team; there are still impact players on the pitching side of the FA market, and their fates will likely decide his.
Signing Kendrys makes Smoak and LoMo that much more valuable to other teams in trade packages since he's off the table. There just aren't that many 1B out there, and with guys like James Loney getting multi-year contracts there is legitimate value to those two as trade pieces -- NOT throw-ins, as it so often suggested in the local blog-o-sphere.
Now we're getting into the meat and potatoes of roster construction and maximizing a position of strength ;) If Kendrys really can play 60-100 games at 1B, then the M's should absolutely be first in line with an offer. If he can't, then he is still quite valuable as a solidifying MOTO presence. If LoMo and/or Smoak are hitting like Kendrys at mid-season and everyone's healthy, then you can flip him to plug a hole. If they're struggling (as both have been known to do for, oh, multiple years at a time) then he's a stabilizing force and gives matchup options.
Don't get me wrong; if Andrew McCutcheon was available I'd break the bank for him. Good glove men with plus bats earn MVP votes for a reason, but if what's available is a bunch of bashers who overlap positionally, be thankful you've at least managed to shore up the offense -- something we've FAILED to do for most of the last decade.
McClendon has already been talking about rotating guys through the DH slot to keep them healthy. He's going to be relying on three hitters that have been very frail the last couple of years (Hart, Morrison and Gutierrez). Given that, I doubt he's interested in a full time DH like Morales. That ship sailed with the Hart and Morrison acquisitions.