Interesting thing about the Tiggers is they finished #2 in both OPS+ and ERA+. (and runs scored and runs allowed).
The fact Boston outscored them isn't a surprise. The fact the ROYALS allowed the fewest runs in the AL ... *THAT* makes the head hurt. (Oakland allowed one run more than Detroit, just in case anyone is interested).
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But, since we're talking playoff teams ... my realization when skimming through stats recently is that Adam Wainwright is probably the most under-rated pitcher in baseball. So ... how many Ms fans are going to even think to include Wainwright in the discussion of best pitchers over the last 5-7 years? You know ... pitchers as good as Felix? Anyone? Bueller?
The usual names are Halladay (though he obviously hit a bump recently)... Verlander ... Cliff Lee maybe ... at the moment Kershaw would be an obvious choice.
And to be fair, I'm not suggesting Wainwright is in the running to LEAD the class. He's not. But, take a look at his resume:
Year - ERA+ - K/BB
2007 - 119 - 1.94
2008 - 132 - 2.68 (only 20 starts)
2009 - 155 - 3.21 (3rd in CY voting)
2010 - 160 - 3.80 - (2nd in CY voting)
2012 - 96 - 3.54 - (missed 2011 due to injury - pitched well, but had lousy ERA given his peripherals)
2013 - 123 - 6.26 -- (his 1.3 BB/9 this season is Cliff Lee territory!)
His career totals are: 99-57; 3.11; 129-ERA+; 0.6 / 2.3 / 7.7
Where does Felix stand?
110-86; 3.20; 127-ERA+; 0.7 / 2.6 / 8.4
Honestly, I think if he had not missed a season, he might be viewed as one of the current elite pitchers. But, because he did get hurt, and because his 2012 ERA was sub-par, (despite otherwise stellar numbers), he's kind of missing from the discussions of current greats.
This season, the NL CY talk was all about Harvey and Kershaw - (until Harvey got shut down). And Kershaw is really in a class by himself right now. But, Adam Wainwright has largely been the invisible pitcher. I doubt many Ms fans would have believed after adjusting for league and park Wainwright would actually have a BETTER career ERA+ than Felix. But, he does.
At the moment, Kershaw is on an island and there are lots of pitchers (the entire Detroit staff, Felx and Kuma, Darvish, Sale) that are all legitimate nominees for 2nd place ... and Wainwright should definitely be in that discussion. But, for whatever reasons, he has been largely ignored. He may need to actually best Kershaw in a head to head (good luck doing that, Adam). But, until then, I just thought it would be nice to give him some love, especially after his performance last night.
.
Imagine, for a moment, that you had an MLB expansion team. Imagine that you were Bud Selig's daughter, and that the rules were:
- Draft anybody you like, from any team
- Then every team gets to protect 1 player
- Then draft anybody's #2 player that you want
- Then every team protects its 2nd player
- Then draft anybody's #3 player that you want
- etc
How many games do you think you'd win -- 120, or 130?
.............
Stretching the imagination just a bit more, imagine you went into the playoffs with this crew:
- SP1 - Felix Hernandez
- SP2 - Roy Halladay (Cy version)
- SP3 - Orel Hershisher (in his prime)
- SP4 - A.J. Burnett
.............
- #1 - Angel Pagan, CF
- #2 - Hunter Pence, RF
- #3 - Hank Aaron, 3B (1970 version)
- #4 - Joey Votto, 1B
- #5 - Joe Mauer, DH/C
- #6 - Matt Wieters, C
- #7 - Howie Kendrick, 2B
- #8 - Brandon Phillips, SS
- #9 - somebody, LF
Would you expect to win the World Series? If that team wouldn't do it, what hope do the Seattle Mariners ever have? :- )
We're talking about the 2013 Detroit Tigers, of course. The above "comparables" aren't very precise, but almost all of them are taken from the top three or four names on each Tiger's b-ref.com card.
Having a great lineup is no guarantee, of course, but the Tigers' juggernaut put up some pretty sweet numbers in 2013. Here are the numbers for their SP's:
| SP | ERA+ | K | BB | HR | Remark |
| Verlander | 120 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | HOF'er |
| Scherzer | 145 ! | 10.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 21-3, 2.90 |
| Sanchez | 163 !! | 10.0 | 2.7 | 0.4 ! | 2.57 ERA |
| Fister | 115 | 6.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | Not one of our 5 going forward |
| Porcello | 97 | 7.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 13-8 record in #5 slot |
| TEAMWIDE | 117 ! | 8.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 |
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As a team, the Tigers had 8.8 strikeouts with 2.8 walks and a gopher rate way below average. What single starting pitcher was closest to those 13 Tigers, as a group? That would be Stephen Strasburg. Also Madison Bumgarner. But they compiled their stats in the National League...
Would Felix Hernandez be ashamed of an 8.8 / 2.8 / 0.8 three true outcomes? Glad you asked. That was almost exactly his aggregate line from 2009-11.
So you've got a pitching staff of Felix Hernandez, Larry Bernandez, ..., 5, 6, 7, ... Jerry Quernandez. Would be fun to play a season with 13 Felix's, no?
And then the offense was Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera ... and 7x more hitters who were average-solid. The Mariners' very dream: to play 9 solid hitters, except we don't even deign to hope for a Miguel Cabrera... here are the Tigers' hitters:
| Basher | OPS+ | Remark |
| Jackson, CF | 103 | 99 runs scored |
| Hunter, RF | 114 | 37 doubles, 84 RBI, 90 runs |
| Prince Fielder | 120 | 106 RBI, 75 walks |
| Miguel Cabrera | 187 | .348 / .442 / .636 |
| Martinez, DH | 111 | Mauer comp |
| Infante, 2B | 113 | .318 AVG, .450 SLG (Ackley dream season) |
| Dirks, LF | 86 | |
| Peralta, SS | 119 | .303 AVG, .457 SLG (Miller dream season) |
| Avila, C | 87 | |
| TEAMWIDE | 110 | #2 in American League in runs score |
.
There are people who claim that Jim Leyland costs his team a good steady -15 wins a year. The above array of talent Pythag'ed 99 wins, ho-hum, and actually won 93.
If Taijuan and K-Pax are going for the co-Cy Young win in 2014, I hope Jimmy Boy ain't managing them.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
Every time I look at MLB pitching stats, Wainwright and Felix are right up there near the very top in everything that I find interesting.
Not denying Pujols' epic greatness over several years, but obviously the Cards have sustained losing him pretty well with Wainwright as a key reason.
Enjoyed the article! re: Leyland he's not my favorite and I agree he as some major flaws. He does however still have the desire to win and isn't afraid to show it by being ejected or coming out to get in the umpires face, both to protect his players and voice his opinion, right or wrong (9 ejections in 2 years). For the record Wedgie was thrown out of 3 games over the last 2 seasons, in addition only one M's player was ejected over the same period. Per my calculation the only MLB team not to have a player thrown out during that time period was the LAA, however Scioscia was ejected 5 times in addition to other LAA coaches ejections. Also for the record, Carp was ejected twice this season...Hmmm curious. Maybe we could get some fire in the M's clubhouse and dugout...Perhaps build a firepit or maybe a space heater??
My personal favorite 2013 ejection: http://wapc.mlb.com/play/?content_id=31043255&topic_id=0
Playoff Formula = Core lineup + Horses in the Starting Rotation
Looking at each playoff team this year they all have 2-3 #1 type starters and 2-4 great hitters bunched together. I feel the M's have the starting horses in Felix and Hisashi Iwakuma we need 2 real hitters. The addition of two hitters makes everyone else better. I wonder how good Miguel Cabrera would be without Prince, V-Mart and Torii Hunter hitting around him. What numbers would Miguel Cabrera put up in the M's 2012 or 2013 lineup? Food for thought.
As good a yellow hammer as any right hander in baseball ...
When you talk about power RH'ers with big hooks, and complete repertoires, it's never been clear to me whether Wainwright was going to emerge as a Greinke or sink back into Nolasco territory. But it's clear now that he can make his variety show work at #1 starter level.
Great post San-Man :- )
... as James said. When I think playoffs, I think aces...
2014 M's are definitely looking like the kind of rotation I want to take to war in October, brah...
I was mulling over the 2013 team batting stats, and Detroit and St. Louis' running numbers jump out. Detroit had the 4th most ground into double plays, at 146, and were dead last in stolen bases at 35. St. Louis was second to last in SBs at 45, and was second worst in GDPs at 154. Detroit also had a 64 percent stolen base attempt conversion percentage, for 28th place in MLB. St. Louis only had a 67 percent conversion percentage, for 23rd place in MLB.
While these teams were tops in slug festing, their small ball games were beyond deficient. I'm not sure about STL, but I'm sure that the base clogging prowess of Fielder and Cabrera had something to do with this. Note that each of these teams made the pennant series and STL will probably go to the World Series. Maybe the lesson here is that small ball is something that teams should do only if they don't have slugging percentage, or maybe the lesson is do the best with what you have, or maybe the lesson is that neglect of small ball cost Detroit some wins, but extra base hits play better in the post season.
Boston was 4th in Stolen bases at 122, and first in stealing percentage at 87 percent. These stats were only surpassed by KC. Boston took sixth worst in GDP's at 137. This is because Ellsbury, Victorino and Pedroia stole all the bases, and everyone else hit them in. Maybe it is preferrable to have a small ball crew coupled with a slugging crew on the batting order.