.

The PRVB column, on SSI's stats page (which see), ratios four (4) other measurements.  PRVB gives us a single number -- like the WAR statistic -- that captures an enormous amount of information within a tiny collection of alphanumerics.  

PRVB itself derives from four component metrics:

• VERAC - the proportion of any number that is in accordance with fact or reality
• AXM - the degree to which any number can be generalized to a large number of situations
• PITH - the briefness with which such critical info can be delivered, especially with respect to shock emotional impact
• MAXM - the simplicity with which a PRVB can be used, the speed with which it gains traction, based on common sense and originality

.

"Two-pitch rookie starting pitchers are a moneyball opportunity for the alert rotisserie owner."  This had a PRVB value of .003 going into the 2011 season.  Following Michael Pineda's rookie season and a certain Think Tank campaign, its value was no less than 87 by the All-Star intermission.  

Following James Paxton's 2014 season, it now boasts a .92 value.  All that remains for K-Pax is for him to rotate his glove slightly into his chest so that the Blues and the Grays of Alpha Centuari will have to squint when they wish to signal the hitter what pitch is coming next.

....

Thanks to the the .85 value Taijuan Walker's in AXM column -- this particular two-piitch PRVB applies to him particulary solidly -- Tiajuan goes into 2015 as one of the top 16 roto-draftee SP's in the American League.

....

"Many, perhaps most, playoff races are decided by 3 or fewer games."  This insight had a PRVB value of .79 heading into July 2014.  Seattlites, sadder but wiser, are wont to place this value at .98 for nextseason.

G-Moneyball wrote a classy article in which he (a) conceded that ANY of twenty executive decisions would have put the 2014 Mariners in the playoffs, but that (b) he was utterly grateful to get a little taste anyway.

Like we said:  classy of him.  Dr. D's only VERAC column-check, though:  suppose we miss out by 1 game again next year?  Will the lack of URG be equally worthy of tolerance then?

....

The Mariners did a great many, many, MANY things (Cmmd. Loussard) that gained them +2 games in 2014.  Reaching down and picking a few out of a heavy cutpurse of suggestions:

• The Robinson Cano recruiting trip
• Cano's own Zen-like acceptance of the home enviornment (which eventually transferred to his teammates)
• The handing of the closer role to a man truly desirous of the role, ratchet-clicking others into comfortable roles
• The baseball instincts that handed an 86-MPH pitcher the ball at #4 SP
• The hair-fine baseball judgment that gave Lloyd McClendon the reins to a neophyte bullpen and 9-to-make-5 lineup card
• The guts to get a AA Cuban the ball in the #3 SP slot (score one for "Makeup")
• The wisdom to buy insurance policies all over the yard, such as LoMo for Smoak

True, there are plenty 'nuff things we could pick out of the "Lack Of Urgency" bag over on the other hip.  That last week, all the shutouts, that ballclub looked to like a team that had been told "We don't believe in you."  And that's what they got.

1. For want of a nail, the shoe was lost
2. For want of a shoe, the horse was lost
3. For want of a horse, the rider was lost
4. For want of a rider, the battle was lost
5. For want of a battle, the kingdom was lost
6. And all for the want of .... Michael Cuddyer

This, gentlemen, is why we talk "sense of urgency," the reason we chip our teeth when James Paxton cools his heels for an extra 10 starts before returning.

But still.  The 2014 Mariners racked up a +80 run differential this year, and it looks like a reproducible +80 runs from here.

In constradistinction to the last ten winters, this winter is pregnant with possibilities.

Enjoy,

Jeff