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relievers at some point. All Cy Young winners at this point. You have to try and maximize a great arm and if it doesn't fit one role then try another.
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Cases For and Against
In baseball history, you could find dozens of RP-SP conversions that worked, and dozens that didn't. Run your little "study" :- ) and you're going to wind up concluding this: All you can do is try it, and see how it works for this guy.
(Nate Silver studies 100x of the SP-to-RP, not RP-to-SP, conversions here. He opines, from a statistical viewpoint, that you want "wild" pitchers to walk people in the bullpen, but he isn't asking whether a guy like Wilhelmsen might find a starter's rhythm in longer stints.)
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Nope
Rick Aguilera was a star closer who tried the rotation, wasn't good at it, and, um... simply moved back to the pen.
Daniel Bard had a shattering psychological experience in the rotation, one that resonated throughout the Sox org. That is a horror scenario for you.
Neftali Feliz started out fine in the rotation, but got hurt. Of course, Feliz might have been headed toward the DL in any case.
Danny Graves is my idea of a perfect case-against. He was a tremendous Scot Shields-type reliever for the Reds, threw 80-100 excellent innings a year ... hit the rotation and was a bug on a windshield, 4-15 with a 5.33 ERA.
You could find plenty more. Braden Looper, maybe? Brian Tallet? I vaguely remember them having issues, but could be wrong.
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Yep
Alexi Ogando was overpowering in the 'pen, switched to the rotation, and was ... overpowering. He's 17-11, 3.43 lifetime in the rotation; his last start, Friday, he beat Oakland 5-3.
Chris Sale became a big star in the rotation. Imagine if the Sox hadn't had the guts to try it.
Jeff Samardzija has 180 strikeouts in 174 innings for the Cubs this year.
You might not evern remember that C.J. Wilson was a bullpen conversion, so natural is he in the rotation. (Wilson got rocked hard as a starter early in his minors career, and needed some big league time before he finally settled in as a starter. Compare Wilson's arc to Wilhelmsen's.)
In fact, now that you mention it ... Jeff Fassero was like that. Tons of guys were "surprises" who were brought up to the bigs, pitched great, and then "promoted" to the rotation like Fassero was. I'll bet there are any number of SP stars who were "promoted" out of the pen and we wind up forgetting that they came up as relievers.
eeeeYup ... Ryan Dempster had a rocky start as a young rotation guy, was 1-5, 7.08 in his first ML trial there. He established himself for several years as a reliever... he went back to the rotation at the age of 31 and won 17 games, finishing 6th in the Cy Young. A lot of times pitchers fail their first few times in the rotation, and then they get better as pitchers, and then they star in the rotation.
I wasn't even aware that Jonathan Sanchez came up as a reliever.
Justin Duscherer was an okay minors starter, was brought up to relieve, and then at the age of 30 converted to the rotation. He ripped off a 2.54 ERA in his first season there.
Some guys need a few false starts, and then they mature, and they get so good that you forget they ever had problems. Would Wilhelmsen be one of these? Dr. D would certainly be interested to find out. Why would you want to go into spring training next year without half-a-dozen games to go on?
Comments
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For a time, the Twins were masters of taking a starter and "introducing" him to the Majors as a reliever.
Johan Santana
Francisco Liriano
They both began their MLB careers in the pen. But, they were always SPs in the minors. Not sure how you quantify the type. Does Morrow count?
I would suspect very few RP to SP conversions were attempted with guys who came up as relievers in the minors. I suspect most were always SPs and 'snuck' onto rosters in the bullpen due to situational circumstance. TW may qualify there ... but really doesn't have enough of a minor league resume to draw too much in the way of conclusions.
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Thanks Merks. I know doodly about the NL and wasn't even aware that Wainwright had been a reliever.
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But, yeah, these RP to SP conversions definitely follow that pattern.
Mostly starting in the minors
Introduced as 80% RP's, or 100% RP's, in the majors
Tried a few times in the rotation, failed the first time or two
Changed to the rotation later, big success.
Would guess that you're right -- that pure relievers out of college and the minors are seldom converted.
Wilhelmsen in the minor leagues has had 41 starts and 5 relief appearances to date.
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Derek Lowe, as I recall, was primarily a reliever his first few years in the majors before becoming a pretty good starter.
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Try Storm Davis, Scott MacGregor, and several others.
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Especially considering the stuff and demeanor (sensitive AND very serious on the mound) is Dave Stewart. Not an overwhelming reliever, but decent. Some thought he was a bit soft. Dave Duncan gets ahold of him and suddenly - Smoke! 4 years of dominance starting at age 30.. Tom should look him up and talk to him. Maybe a Ryan-Unit conversation will result and the light bulbs will come on to match the stuff.
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Seems like this would be a great winter ball project. Is winter ball even something players do anymore?
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When the minors season ends, I hope a few of these guys can get some exposure to the Dave Stewarts, Dave Duncans, and others before they go off to work on stuff for the off-season. Painter is from that "school" - maybe the Ms need to let him arrange something on pitching psychology. Orel Hershiser is another one that might be able to get some connection and turn on some lights. We saw it work with the Big Unit - and maybe he's another one to pass it on, also. Pitching goes on between the ears - isn't that exactly the pattern recognition / pattern dispersal intelligence that we've been talking about? "Hitting is timing; Pitching is disrupting that timing." (loose quote) - Warren Spahn. Ya, 363 wins has some cred.
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How many of the guys that made the transition from RP to SP were 30 years old, as Tom will be next season?
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As mentioned above, Dave Stewart was 29 when traded from Philly to Oakland and 30 when he started his 4-year run of dominance under Duncan and LaRussa. He's a good comp for stuff, too.
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If the successful transition from RP to successful SP at 30 is limited to one guy, color me skeptical. I'm not into chasing odds that long. I might start him for the remainder of the year in AAA just to get him a lot of reps but I would still view him as a RP.
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Ryan Dempster was a reliever through age 30, went into the rotation at 31.
Fassero's transition year was age 30 ... 41 games out of the pen, 15 starts, and the next year he at 31 was a Grade A starter.
CJ Wilson relieved through age 28, "tried" in the rotation at 29.
Samardzija was a reliever for 4 years in the majors, put in the rotation at 27.
Duscherer moved to the rotation at 30.
Derek Lowe was a pure reliever through age 28, tried in the rotation at age 29 and won 21 games his first year. Odd, in fact, how many of these guys had their best years in their first seasons as starters.
Dave Stewart, as mentioned.
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An amigo brought up Earl Weaver and as he did, it occurred that it's a perfectly NATURAL process for pitchers to start in the minors, pitch fringe in the majors for years, and then evolve to where they're ready to star in the rotation.
Sometimes the difference between SP and RP is a little overstated. :- ) It's four balls, three strikes and a guy with a stick in his hand. A pitcher can throw 100 pitches, or he can't...
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Bullpens grew after teams figured out that there were a lot of guys out there who could be nasty for an inning or two but couldn't hold up over 6 or 7 innings, either because of bad mechanics or stuff that had decreasing returns the more hitters saw it.
This happened about the same time that baseball guys figured out that throwing a ball is an unnatural motion, so rather than finding the few guys who can throw 300 innings a year it might be smart to split the workload, save some arms, and try to extend careers.
When converting a reliever to starter, it's really just stuff and mechanics to me. Wilhelmsen has a bombshell curve that he can't throw for strikes out of the pen 4 times out of 5. He has a 97 mph fastball, so losing a little velo wouldn't kill him. His changeup is actually pretty decent, he just doesn't throw enough pitches in his appearances to do more than tinker with it. And his mechanics are fine - he's no Stephen Pryor.
So I don't see the holdup. As you said, the conversion of relievers to starters does happen. It's not a singularity. Look, if we had Fister as a long man and somebody talked about making him a starter, there would be concerns about whether he could keep throwing darts like that over 6 innings, or keep fooling hitters, or if his fastball would hold up to more intense scrutiny. But it'd be worth trying.
This is too. The worst thing that happens is he's no good as a starter and transitions back to the pen as a long man or 7th inning guy who tries to work his way back to the back end. The best thing is that we don't give some other team a wobbly reliever that they turn into a great starter. I mean, isn't that the Morrow complaint? We bullpenned him, then traded him as a bullpenner when he should have had starter value which some other team saw from the start?
Consider this a potential correction in that dynamic.
~G
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Only having him start to enable him to work on things in a more structured manner.
http://mynorthwest.com/374/2329801/Notes-Wilhelmsen-not-converting-an-ho...
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Could be that TW reacted in a certain way, and exec X told him this, and then coach Y told him something else, and then coach Z gave his own opinion to the media...
The Willis quote linked was definitely in that territory, "Hey hey, nobody's saying you're not up to the closer task." A lot of people strongly interpret a conversion as an insult to TW. But things can evolve over time ... let's say as TW warms up to starting or whatnot.
Could be that Willis' quote can be literally taken at face value ... more often it's a reaction to all the internal upheaval going on in a situation like this. Or could be that they're playing their cards close to the vest, and want a bit of success before 'announcing' a trial -- nobody wants two trials as a starter and then THAT to be a disaster ALSO. Good way to take pressure off.
But we'll see soon enough whether TW starts getting the 3rd and 4th innings... odd that he is on a 4-day rotation...
thanks Spec...