.
... of course we are discussing a Golden Principle. Golden Principles are not absolutes. They are compass headings. Many times two or three Golden Principles are in play, and have to be weighed against each other.
It's a Golden Principle, in boxing, to protect your chin (the 'magic button' that concusses) and to go after his. But what if his hands are head-high, he's standing straight up, and his solar plexus is the opening? Then is the Golden Principle to take what he gives you?
What if you decide that you will take $1.25 on the dollar, but you are receiving only a 50-cent piece and three 25-cent pieces for a single $1 player? You wind up making this trade:
.
| cents |
Player |
cents |
Player |
Remark |
| 1.00 |
Doug Fister |
.50 |
Charlie Furbush |
M's thought Furbush SP > Fister |
|
|
.25 |
Casper Wells |
Age 26, he looked about like Saunders |
|
|
.25 |
Francisco Martinez |
Fairly shiny grade B prospect |
|
|
.25 |
Chance Ruffin |
Looked about like Tony Zych |
| 1.00 |
|
1.25 |
|
But count your fingers again |
.
And the above is EXACTLY what happens in these 4-for-1s. Two years later you have completely forgotten about three of the four pieces, and you're left with Hisashi Iwakuma for Booger Powell.
And, and ... this doesn't even consider the fact that you run in the chain-link fence that is the 25-man roster. only get 25 slots on your roster. Even if Ruffin IS worth 25 cents (which he was not) then don't forget your NEXT-best reliever has value too, as a delta. What is that value? Is it 27 cents, or only 23? Never forget that that roster slots #26-30 are 22-cent players. So let's say that the "Replacement Level Players" are 23-centers, what does it scan like then?
.
| cents |
Player |
cents |
Player |
Remark |
| .77 |
Doug Fister |
.27 |
Charlie Furbush |
M's thought Furbush SP > Fister |
|
|
.02 |
Casper Wells |
Age 26, he looked about like Saunders |
|
|
.02 |
Francisco Martinez |
Fairly shiny grade B prospect |
|
|
.02 |
Chance Ruffin |
Looked about like Tony Zych |
| .77 |
|
.33 |
|
Nice thinking there, Jack |
.
Bill James wrote, 20 years ago, "there exists NO QUANTITY of lower-tier players you can trade for Barry Bonds and make the trade work out." You could literally trade 100 Chance Ruffins for one Felix Hernandez and remain a fool.
.
AS IT APPLIES TO OZUNA
This is why Dr. D's bearings are so fixed on the question of --- > Taijuan? or Karns? or Elias? Dr. D isn't focused on whether the M's could get back a reliever with Ozuna if we coughed up Taijuan Walker. Those "bulk players" will be gone in two years. Dr. D just wants to give up Elias, and get back the best player in the deal. That's the way to look good 2 years on, and it's the way to keep your 25-man roster flexible.
That said, EVERY major league team is aware of the above. We will absolutely guarantee you that - as confidently as we ever put ANYthing on this blog, we advise you that these GM's are swordfighting to give up / get back the better ML player and throw in the extra fodder.
In fact we asked James about this just recently. He said, Every GM thinks he's getting back the best players; the difference is only in the evaluation. Texas thought that Tom Wilhelmsen was the best player in the Martin deal. DiPoto is hoping that Leonys Martin was the most important player among all four, or if not, that Boog Powell will be. Dr. D fancies Texas' side of the deal, on the basis that both Martin and Powell will be very forgettable.
...
Adam Conley - good suggestion for a LH reliever who could help the M's next year. He had a 8.0* / 2.8 / 0.9 slash line in 2015 but couldn't really crack their bullpen priorities, it doesn't seem. AT A GLANCE Dr. D would like to have him, BUT. In a deal where we give Elias + Romero + Ramirez + Nuno + 20 players who are not in our plans. Not as a way to make up the difference between Ozuna and Taijuan.
Justin Bour - alternatively, we could trade for Logan Morrison.
;- ) Actually this is what DiPoto is doing a lot of -- trading sideways, but for players he believes in. Reminds me of Arsenal. They pass the ball around the perimeter, biding their time, knowing that things will show up. Jerry DiPoto is not going to hear us, on this blog. We're talking about which deals that fans should be rooting for.
Other Marlins - they've got any number of useful pieces. If it's me, I give them Elias and my OWN "useful pieces" :- ) or I do not make a deal. Sometimes the best deals are the ones you don't make ... like, saying No to the Doug Fister trade woulda been a whale of a trade.
.
ROTO FILES Dept.
Matty had a cool shout:
.
From my fantasy #Baseball files - the three trades I've made that took my wobbly, bottom-feeder team to back to back champion status were all one guy the other guy severely coveted for three guys I wanted type deals. (The actual numbers of players varied...but still)
(2014) George Springer (hotly coveted prospect) to my top rival in exchange for Matt Moore (d'oh!), Chris Tillman, and Alex Rios (later turned Rios and a pitcher into Cano for the stretch drive)
(2014) Mike Trout, Kendrys Morales, Luke Gregorson, Hector #Santiago to my chief rival at the time in exchange for Alex Gordon, Mark Teixeira, James Paxton, Koji Uehara, and C.J. Wilson
(2015) Michael Brantley and Andrew Miller to another club in exchange for (wait for it)...Josh Donaldson, Matt Wieters, Chris Archer, and draft cash.
The axiom that you always want to get the best player in the deal is a nice guidepost, but you do have to look positionally...
.
Springer for Moore, Tillman, and Cano ... :- ) this is exactly what James was talking about. You're fine to deal 1 bigger name for 3 lesser ones, as long as the lesser ones include Matt Moore.
Trout for five ML'ers who take up slots #4, 5, 8, 10, and 12 on your roster? Sure t'ing. If the Marlins want to give us five All-Stars for Taijuan, I'll consider it.
Donaldson was the best player in the deal even pre-season. Then you get Chris Archer, LOL ...
Nice trading Matty. The application to Elias and ? for Ozuna and ? we'll leave to the reader. ;- )
.
DR'S R/X
If DiPoto gives up James Paxton and window dressing for Marcell Ozuna and a "useful piece," I'm going to rip the trade. ... well, it would be a statement from DiPoto that he thinks Ozuna WILL break out. That, or Jerry DiPoto is too concerned with his own preferred style and "Run Prevention Model" to be objective.
Run Prevention Model. Don' that sound soooo much cooler than "Good pitching beats good hitting?"
:- / Let's not get so carried away with *a certain kind* of good player that we give up great players for good ones. Bottom line is, you need good players period. Good players against "certain kinds of good players," that's dollars against dimes.
Free K-Pax,
Dr D
