Whereas I only play a (roto) doctor on the internet, Kelly actually has his sheepskin ... he also had a 5-for-5 night, so:

I few notes I find interesting about Pineda's performance.  Pineda has a strikeout rate of 15K/9 in the first inning of his three starts, compared to a rate of 6.06K/9 in all other innings.  The hitters are coming up in the first inning looking to do damage, are realizing they are overmatched, and using their pepper swing for the rest of the game.

Had not seen this stats split.  What a g-r-e-a-t catch.

In Kansas City, this syndrome was not only the reality, but also was as obvious as a coal pile in a ballroom.  But the 15 vs 6 K rate is a double underline.

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We spoke of the conditions under which a pitcher can lose consistently, despite throwing 97-99 mph.  We longtime M's fans got doctorates in this back in 1989-1992.

For hitters to beat a wild 98-mph thrower, they do start with the pepper swing.  They also need to lurk for a particular location -- fastball down, fastball away, wherever the hitter chooses to plan his attack pre-swing.  In Pineda's case this has become "look for a FB out and over."  Hence the hard base hits on 98 fastballs off the black, wide.

KC indeed re-calibrated its game to this "look for a fastball out and over" from inning two on, and that's why Pineda's slider yielded 19/25 strikes, 0 base hits, and some Bugs Bunny swings from LHB's who were approximately 3 seconds early.  

Randy Johnson 1989 could not throw his slider for a strike...

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This syndrome, the "pepper swing the fastball in a certain location" is precisely why some super-fastball pitchers run modest 7K rates.  Colon did, Schilling did, Verlander did, and Pineda is right now.  

There is a curious parabola to the outcome, in which a pitcher becomes SO dangerous that hitters retreat -- neither striking out as much, nor hitting home runs.

One of the downsides is that the hitters take a lot of real close pitches.  So far the ump isn't giving them to Pineda.

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Pineda is not the first pitcher to torch the league his first time through, but if he consistently brings 97 mph located to the perimeter of the zone, he's not going to struggle.  Note, 4-seam fastball don't have a large platoon split, unlike Felix's 2-seam fastball. 

Again 100% true.  (Is that redundant?)

And not only does Pineda's 4-seam (faster, straighter) ball not project to a platoon split ... it does not have armside run.  The "fadeaway" run that lefties crush.

Pineda's FB is a huge problem for LHB's, who are used to seeing armside run for lefties; in effect, Pineda's fastball breaks in to the handles of their bats.

Check out these run values.  In the table below, the far right column means that Matt Cain's fastball saves the Giants 1.25 runs per 100 fastballs thrown:

That 3.90 run value (!!) comes after Pineda has faced lots of LHB's.  Lefties are 6-for-33 off him, righties 7-for-43.

And, as Dr. K (and Dave Henderson) notes, that 3.90 run value occurs despite the fact that batters are looking for nothing else, ever.

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If you can throw a baseball 100 mph, I promise you can also get a good late break on the ball.  A tight break is much harder for soft tossers to achieve. Consistent control of the break, that is a different issue altogether.  This is why I'm excited about Pineda.  He has a natural gift for commanding the baseball, while sustaining elite velocity.  He did it in low A (though prior to elite velocity), he did it for 50 inning in A+ before elbow troubles, he did it in AA, and he's doing it now in the bigs.

Never saw a Doc Gooden, Nolan Ryan, or what have you, without a Nintendo breaking pitch.  It's physics. 

If you go through GameDay on Pineda's sliders one by one, you see he can throw it for a called strike as well as can, say, Felix Hernandez.

Some he buries for swings, some he leaves up for called strikes...

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It appears he is developing two slurves, one with a smaller break he can through for strikes (fairly consistently so far) and a second one with a larger late break he can use as a strike out pitch out of the zone (like the pitch he used to strike out LH Travis Snider). 

Ya, neither have I triangulated Pineda's breaking pitches.

vs. KC, he did throw some sliders that didn't break much at all.  His "slider" was pegged by Brooks as having a mere 9-inch break.  

As Dave Henderson tells you three times per broadcast, it is the change of speed that is the real point.

I almost liked the change/slurve better.  It was a guaranteed strike, and they're not going to hit it anyway if they're cheating 98 mph.

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While Felix is more fun to watch, his game is more challenging to keep fine tuned because all his pitches move like crazy.  This, however, creates a clear game plan for the hitter.  Hope to get ahead and then wait for a fastball up where the natural movement of the pitch will drop the pitch into the optimal hitting zone.  Pineda looks to have a very straight fastball,  but this makes command much easier, so he falls behind less and doesn't have to aim for the heart of the zone, or at least hasn't to date.

Follow on to say, the game plan for the hitter becomes --- > wishful thinking:  hope he throws the FB you are looking for (in, out, up, down) and hope even harder that he doesn't throw a slider.

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Muchas gracias very much K ...