Dee Gordon's SS-->2B-->CF Transition(s)
Various opinions on Gordon's (latest) position shift.

So the internet is rightly ablaze with the Ohtani and Stanton news, but slipping through the cracks is some fine analysis about new M's player Dee Gordon and his upcoming shift from 2B (where he was elite defensively) to CF, where he's never played during his pro career (unless you count that one season in the Caribbean...).

First up is a killer comment by AndrewMcQ down near the bottom of this thread over at LookoutLanding.  Contained therein is a thick wad of evidence which points favorably to Gordon's speed turning him into an asset in CF, along with some specific IF-->OF conversion examples which, while not inspiring unmitigated confidence, do lend credence to the notion that Gordon's prospects to become a quality defensive CF are indeed strong.

Next up we've got a post over at RotoGraphs by Jeff Zimmerman, aptly titled 'Can Dee Gordon Play Center Field?'  Short version: probably a safe bet, but not without some risk.

Thirdly, we've got an SBNation article which takes a little more cautionary approach to the conversion.  

Also noteworthy (and, indeed, noted by several astute SSI'ers already in various threads) is that Dee Gordon has *already* made a position shift from SS-->2B, and not only did he survive the transition--he flourished after making it!  This position shift demonstrates his willingness to (some might even say gift for) tackling adversity head-on, which is a MAJOR plus in his favor.  Indeed, within hours of learning about his new position, he was already recruiting next-door-neighbor Ken Griffey Jr. as a Special Adviser for his Transition Team. His arm, which was rated strong enough to play SS, certainly won't be a liability in CF.  And his legs...well, we already know that his legs are elite, and a CF's legs are *probably* his most important asset.  The ability to get jumps and take good routes to the ball are important, obviously, but without good speed nobody can play a + CF in the big leagues.  Nobody.

Personally, had you told me a day before Dee Gordon debuted at 2B that he was going to move off SS, I'd have laid good money down that his destination was going to be CF.  It's just too obvious of a fit for him, and all of this hand-wringing about the transition being foolish really does have me scratching my head in confusion.  Apprehension is one thing, but doom-and-gloom, 'This'll never work--we need Gulliver!' nonsense is pretty much enough to make me roll my eyes at otherwise astute observers of Major League Baseball.  I remember getting into arguments over on LL about Cruz's contract, which I called 'market-rate' and 'fair for a player of his skills' and getting sneered at.  Turns out he's been one of the best FA bargains in all of baseball, while his contemporaries (namely Victor Martinez) were closer to average-ish FA acquisitions.

Cruz to DH in Safeco, after a career year in the comfy confines of Baltimore, was a risk.  No question about it.  Just like Dee Gordon to CF is a risk.  But there's precedent for Gordon having success in this transition, and he's already demonstrated himself capable of succeeding in--if not being entirely eager about--making a major position change mid-career.

Personally, I'll take the 80 tool player and figure out a way to cram him onto my roster with a smile on my face.  Dee Gordon is precisely such a player, whose speed is going to be a major asset to this team.  I doubt he scores as many runs in 2018 as he did in 2017 (Yelich/Stanton/Ozuna was as good a 3-4-5 as there is in baseball) but he won't have to in order to make himself a key piece of the puzzle going forward.  To do that, he's just got to post average-ish defensive numbers in CF while being himself with the bat and on the bases.

I like his chances.

Comments

1
tjm's picture

. . . Mr Jonez. This is a classic conversion done by a hundred guys from Mantle to Yount.  Now I want Dipo to go get some more of those Marlins.

3

of the trade.  Good 'put, Matt.  Without asking for any violations of NDA's on your part, are you aware of a strong correlation between first step speed and strong OF defense?  Stats analysis is well outside of my wheelhouse and well within yours; would be curious to hear your opinion, as someone who's actually worked in professional baseball and as a valued commenter of this site for many years before that was the case.

4

good first step speed/launch *should* be correlated with getting a good jump on a flyball, just like having superior reflexes *should* correlate with a lower K% and higher BB%.  Not that it's an absolute, obviously, but it does *seem* like a quick first step would dovetail nicely into superior routes in the OF.

5

Franklin Gutierrez puts that theory into question, given that he was a poor baserunner with average home to first times but a brilliant center fielder. But, in general, top base-stealers have tended to be great outfielders. Otis Nixon, Kenny Lofron, etc. The correlation isn't perfect though.

6

No doubt about it.  But I share Doc's reservations about Guti's defensive prowess.  He had three elite defensive seasons (08, 09 & 11), and a bunch of others that were average-ish.  He was closer to Torii Hunter than Mike Cameron, to my untrained eye: talented, even especially so (for a MLB player, at that) but not someone who, for whatEVER reason, was able to produce elite defense year-in, year-out (like Cammy did).

I dunno.  He, as Doc would say, 'did done' that one KILLER year in CF where he was worth 30+ runs saved, and he 'did done' two more 15+ run years with his glove, so he's not exactly chopped liver out there in his prime.  But it *could* be that the lack of elite speed is part of what kept him from maintaining elite defensive performance (just noodling; I know his peculiar health issues robbed him of a ton of his athletic ability, which is a shame).

8

...when I was calculating defensive numbers using a combination of Bill James' unit-driven production stats and more modern approaches to defining replacement level defensive play, I found only two center fielders in the history of the game with numbers remotely comparable to Andruw Jones. Paul Blair and Curt Flood. Lots of guys one shade down, either because they were inconsistent or because their peak was less impressive, but Jones and Blair were stunningly close in terms of career defensive value as of 2005.

9

I've shot my own argument (that speed is essential for top-tier CF defense) in the second, third, fourth, and fifth metatarsals since never in his ENTIRE CAREER did his baserunning amount to anything *remotely* resembling a strength offensively (his BEST year according to FanGraphs saw him squeeze 3.7 runs out of his legs, another year showed 3.4, and his third best season ever was 1.5).  I could (and, I suppose, will after thirty seconds' careful deliberation) hide behind the 'exceptions exist to prove the rule' defense.

10

I remember you trotting out DNRA(correct acronym?) back at D-O-V and being thoroughly impressed.  It's good to know people who know things :-)

13

Aha. So what I detected was a natural osmotic process. (I will suppress any temptation to throw in a joke about MiraLax.) 

Good on ya, sirjonez. The resemblence was strong enough to make me post. Doc's influence is, indeed, a good thing. And we recognize the talent on your part that stands on it's own.

14

Great point Terry, Yount.

Dale Murphy was a catcher and transitioned to a GG CFer.

As I said earlier, at worst he is a good glove LFer.

15

Made the move to center field very late in his career and was still a plus defender there.

17

But while great speed is an excellent asset for a centerfielder...having great speed does not make you a great centerfielder.  I used Ichiro before as a prime example.

Don't get me wrong.  Not only is this more than worth a shot...I really like Gordon on our team.  He plus Segura at the top of the order in front of our 3-6 hitters is not bad at all.

But I'll just believe it when I see it--which you can take as a repeated vote of no confidence in Servais' coaching staff.  

18

is MORE than warranted after multiple decades with ZERO home-grown offensive stars.  Seager's a FINE ballplayer, but no threat to win the MVP, and he's EASILY the best offensive player we've developed (and deployed) since A-Rod, no?

That said, Gordon has already been with two different organizations, and has shifted positions previously in his career (as I repeat ad nauseum, I know...).  There is a DEFINITE chance (20%?) that he fails to become an average MLB CF defensively, but that's about where I'd put it.

And at that level of 'risk,' it's a play I make every single time--ESPECIALLY when the 'backup' plan is to shift Robbie over to 1B and install Gordon as the everyday, GG-caliber 2B.

19

Officially made available by the BoSox, although I have been suggesting that he was.   Controllable for three years.

Nelson Cruz for Bradley?  It might take another part from each team to get it right, but would you do it?

If you can move Cano to 1B and Healy to DH, then I would do it.  

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