Q.  Is it really appropriate for the Mariners to make 25-man roster decisions on Moore,  Tui, Fister, Bard and White based on 30 days' performance?

A.  Not appropriate; it's completely necessary.  The greatest organizations in history gave away, or took away, jobs based on performance in March.

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Q.  But we know what Josh Wilson hits.  Why would a .425 spring change his destiny?

A.  In that situation, certainly a good organization would not be fooled by the hot March.  That is the kind of feebleminded mistake that the 1970's Mariners used to make -- they'd look at a 29-year-old meatball and decide he could hit based on a .350 Arizona.

Where a player's level of performance is established, you don't let a month of pre-season -- or regular-season -- production fool you.  Josh Wilson's first month here shouldn't have fooled people, but it did.

If that's what the M's are doing with their March, deciding whether Wilson can hit better than he showed last year, we're all in a lot more trouble than we thought :- )

This is what guys talk about when they warn against over-emphasizing ST performance.  If you're using 50 ABs' or 15 innings' worth of results -- stats -- to overturn a player's evaluation, definitely.  Take the motherboard in for re-soldering there, chief.

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Q.  Then, doesn't the same thinking apply to a player like Adam Moore or Matt Tuiasosopo?  Their developmental arcs are based on 1,500 AB's, and here you are revising the arc based on 50 AB's?

A.  This question has a false assumption -- that the "correct" way to project a player is based on Pascal's Triangle and statistical analysis.

There is another way to project a young hitter:  to stand on the field and observe whether he has learned how to cover the outside corner.  Don Wakamatsu is living with these ballplayers 12 hours per day for a month.  He's getting a 400x-Mag view of whether they have made the adjustments they need to make.

Hey, I can go down to the YMCA and in four (4) minutes, I can tell you which basketball player could play junior college.  It's a matter of a first step here, a head bob there, a dime thrown backdoor in the other place.  An on-field coach might be able to tell you whether a player is overmatched in one day, much less in 30 days.

Give the field coaches some credit.  They can tell you whether Jeff Clement has learned to deal with a breaking pitch inside.   The on-field battle has its own rhythm.  The coaches are tuned to that.

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Q.  Like what?

A.  Wakamatsu, after Tui's two* HR's yesterday, opined that "Matt has learned to let the bat do the work, and not try to muscle it all the time."

Hulking up on a pitch actually slows you down, among other problems it causes.   At what point does a hitter learn that a relaxed swing still takes him yard?   That's not a saber call.  It's a skills call.

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Michael Saunders is a prime example.  Don Wakamatsu is going to be the best man to guess about his 2010 results, don't you think?

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Q.  Do you really trust coaches to make the call as to whether Luke French's stuff has got some pop this year?

A.  That's the difference with the good ones.

Earl Weaver, Lou Piniella, Mike Scioscia, they can look at a player for one day's worth and visualize him at the All-Star Break.  And they will be right.

Piniella famously added Norm Charlton to the miracle Mariners by watching him throw ten (10) pitches on the side and going, "OK, that's enough."  Charlton carried the M's bullpen for two years.

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Luke French's 2010 is not triangulated by his past K/BB/HR ratios.  Pitchers can, and do, change plateaus.   Some pitchers in 2010 are going to be much better than they have been.  Every org must try to identify, and then bet on, these dark horses.

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Q.  The bottom line being?

A.  Saber is important, but on-field assessment is too.  There are many things that are completely opaque to saber, and the coaches are in the process of analyzing these as we speak.

M's fans can relax about the fact that five jobs will be decided in March.  These days, the right players are competing for them, and the right shot-callers are judging them.

See you at the ballpark,

Dr D