Nice article, Doc. And while there's a lot of truth into the 'general' concept of managerial changes having immediate (and 100% mental) benefits to a club.
Unfortunately, in the particular scenario, it's really not what has happened.
Before the change - the club had two hitters - Ichiro and Gutzy. They continue to hit.
Strugglers under previous regime: Johnson, Figgins, Jack Wilson, Lopez, Bradley, Kotchman, Griffey. So --- which of THOSE hitters has specifically picked things up?
(Okay, Sweeney and Moore were also struggling - but they were also not getting much PT).
Who has the HRs in the current run? Saunders (2), Langerhans (1), Sweeney (3), Moore (1). Kinda silly to include Gutzy and Ichiro HRs in the mix - since they WERE hitting.
Bradley is out for fairly typical Bradley reasons. That opened the door for Saunders and Langerhans. Griffey was finally benched and Sweeney actually played enough to get into a groove -- (and has everyone forgotten the EXACT SAME situation happened last season, when Sweeney was the undercard - and was ineffective for most of the season - getting 10 starts a month - UNTIL AUGUST - when he instead of 40 PAs, he got almost 60 -- and was hitting over .900 for the final two months.
The REALITY here is that the coaching change has had ZERO obvious effect -- because 98% of the offensive surge has been provided by NON-STARTERS under the previous regime.
The Sweeney anecdote is the one data point that might play a little into the idea. Of course, on May 8th, Sweeney had a .469 OPS. After playing three consecutive days from the 13th-15th, he has an OPS of .787. That kinda points out how few PAs he had previously. (28 PAs in 30 days in April -- 22 PAs already in 15 days in May).
SOME players can pinch-hit twice a week and stay effective. Evidence suggests Sweeney is not - never has been - and never will be - such a player. This may well be one of the issues with Adam Moore. Has he ever played so little? He was playing 115+ games in the shorter, minor league seasons.
Go back and look at Rob Johnson -- he actually put up decent numbers when Joh got hurt and he became *THE* primary catcher (for awhile). But, when he went back to playing every 3rd day, his producting swooned. (And there are the issues with his injuries, complicating the picture, of course).
The point here is that the PRODUCTIVE players in the recent surge have had changes in their PT -- all the minor leaguers who had none previously - (and were not negatively impacted by either the former hitting coach and/or the general malaise of the offense) - and the former bench players suddenly being pushed into more prominant roles.
The REAL gains have not materialized (yet). Bradley, Kotchman, Figgins and Lopez. Those four guys were supposed all supposed to be 100 OPS+ producers. Instead, they currently sit at: 90, 74, 60, and 44. The good news? The recent offensive surge has come without ANY of these guys hitting. The bad news? If these guys don't come around, then the offense is worse than 2009.
I still believe that all four of these guys CAN come around - post 100 OPS+ figures, and Seattle could end up having a middle-of-the-pack offense by year end.
Paradoxically - all the walk-off losses are actually a sign of HOW CLOSE the club is to turning the corner and becoming a legitimate 100-win juggernaut. If 8 of the top 11 hitters were hitting over .700 instead of under .700, then the walk-off losses would be a condemnation that the season is very over. But with 8 of the top 11 hitters under .700, the walk-off losses are an indication of just how large the winning streaks can potentially become if/when even 2/3 of those slumbering bats finally awaken.
=== Blame Game Dept. ===
None of which is even to say that Cockrell did anything wrong. He probably didn't. It's just that sometimes relationships get stale.
Bill James once said, "For a baseball fan not to notice that strikeout pitchers tend to be effective, would be like a basketball fan not noticing that NBA players tend to be tall."
Paraphrasing Bill a bit: for baseball fans not to notice that coaching changes can lead to winning streaks, would be like.... I dunno. Like 'net rats not noticing that Dr. D is peddling shtick, I guess.
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Tim McCarver made the observation on Saturday that the Mariners were swinging for the fences. He made this observation specifically re: the Mariners. McCarver compared it to a quarterback throwing deep from his own 18 -- sometimes you are going for the 7-yard slant, and other times you open it up and go up top.
What, exactly, is so hard to believe about this notion? That the Mariners' hitters were locking up under the constant micromanagement, and that left to their own devices, they went out and unloaded 10 homers and 10 doubles in a week's time?
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=== It Ain't an Act, Dawg ===
McCarver also noted that after Sweeney hit his 3rd home run today, he high-fived everybody ... and then immediately stepped up and started chatting with Alonzo Powell on the rail. They watched the game together for an inning or two, Sweeney "picking Powell's brain" about hitting.
This, explained McCarver, was a huge favor to ex-Rainiers coach Powell: it creates the dugout vibe that Powell coached Sweeney to his success, and that Sweeney is interested in more coaching so that he can hit more home runs.
Imagine yourself in this situation: newbie coach, not yet totally accepted, and either (1) hitters strike out and come gripe at you on the rail for an inning, or (2) hitters rack up big hits and then come stand next to you in the afterglow.
There's a blinkin' reason that Mike Sweeney's clubhouses are productive.
..............
Didja see the home runs? Three in three days, every one of them intentional from the swing trigger out to the seats. Two of them were outside black, yanked down the LF line with authority.
How many current Mariners are capable of three homers in three days? Sweeney deserves a shot.
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=== Way Too Early to Panic ===
The M's are 3-3 and would be 5-1, except for two more walkoffs. (Saturday's game was lost when Adam Moore pulled up lame on an Ichiro double, setting up a sham DP next batter.)
This offense gets to 90-100 OPS+, well, the pitching staff is bubbly and there's all kinds of time left. The Royals would be done. This team has Felix and Cliff Lee.
The M's aren't going to lose another 10 road walkoffs in six weeks again. This club has swindling prospects.
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Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
It's not like Moore isn't playijng much...he's playing quite a bit for the back-up position. Granted, he's not starting every single day, but he's playing half the games. Maybe Moore needs to be a fulltime player, though.
That's the tricky thing. It's possible BOTH catchers would improve offensively playing 75% of the time. The 50/50 could be 'just enough' to prevent either from getting comfy at the plate.