Seattle Sports Insider

Alex Gordon vs Billy Butler

Sooooo many WAR, sooo little time

Posted by

11/5/12

Mo' Dawg sez ...

Gordon's nice, he ain't special. ... Gimme Butler and we will talk. But I'm not 2 fer 1'ing for Gordon.

To which 13 confidently replies, "Huh?" ...

Gordon hits almost as well as Butler while playing great defense at a much more valuable position. I'm not sure where the idea that Gordon isn't a uber-talent is coming from, because I've seen it a couple of times here... the last two years, Gordon's been the third best LF in baseball. Only Trout and Braun seem like good bets to be consistently better. To put things in perspective... last year, by fWAR, Gordon was worth almost two of Butler. The year before, he was worth almost four Butlers.

Don't get me wrong, Billy's a great hitter. But while I'd twofer for Gordon, I don't think I'd do it for him.

=== Pro-Gordon Camp ===

The argument for Alex Gordon, in this 2-player smackdown, is simple and obvious. As 13 says, if Alex Gordon hits almost as well as Billy Butler, and is a great defender, then obviously he's simply a better player.

Fangraphs gives 5.9 and 6.9 for Gordon's WAR totals the last two years, meaning that he has added about +60 and +70 runs to the Royals' ballclub above what a decent AAA player would have done from left field. Billy Butler, on the other hand, calculates out at 3.2 and 1.8 WAR the last two years, a total of 10.2 the last four ... meaning that (if Fangraphs' assumptions be legit) then Country Breakfast is adding only about +25 runs per year over what a good AAA DH would add.

A simple argument and it has traction. How could there even be a case-against?

=== Pre-Butler Camp ===

1. Butler makes less money than Gordon, who is paid for his advantages. (It's not a lot less; Gordon is signed at a tremendous club-friendly contract of $11M x 4 years, while Butler's at $9M x 3 years.)

2. You may have a better alternative player in mind for LF than you do for DH. Maybe Alex Gordon isn't necessarily better than whoever you've got slated for left field ... (We cheerfully admit that this point also is fairly weak.)

3. Maybe Butler's bat is legit and Gordon's is dubious. Here is what Mo is getting at, we think.

There are a lot of guys whose WAR hits 5 for a year or two, and they turn out to be mirages. You might recall Chone Figgins. Production is a different issue than is talent. I don't say that Alex Gordon is a dead man, but I certainly have questions about how well he'll hit the next two-three years.

A lot of sabermigos sniff, "His OPS+ was 141 and 126 the last two years. That's the correct projection for him the next two." NO WAY HO-ZAYYY. What a player did in the past is NOT his "correct" projection going forward. It's not as simple as that, and GM's don't make decisions like that. You have to judge what you expect from Alex Gordon going forward. The man who judges it right, that man's team wins games.

Watch Butler hit and you get real images of Mike Sweeney. His production seems much "harder" than Gordon's, and Butler has upside remaining. At age 26 he raked for a .313 / .373 / .510 slash line, 29 homers and 107 RBI, and there could be considerably more coming. From a tools standpoint he's huge and strong, takes a VERY compact path to the ball, and if there's going to be a way for pitchers to adjust to him ... I for one can't imagine what it would be.

.............

You have competing paradigms. Who gives you the most WAR? Certainly Gordon has done so, but since Chone Figgins the Seattle blog-o-sphere has learned to use WAR with discretion. Who gives you a difference-making bat, one that "legitimizes" the lineup against tough pitching? That's Billy Butler.

=== Two-Fer Dept. ===

Having acknowledged the case for ... Dr. D isn't actually all that enthused about Billy Butler. If you're getting a pure DH, or a lousy first baseman at best, you'd better be getting a franchise bat. Edgar was cool as a DH, but he was one of the great right hand hitters who ever lived.

Dr. D watched James Paxton in the AFL All-Star game. POTD forthcoming, but I'll tell ya this much. Dr. D isn't trading James Paxton, period. All this stuff about giving him, and Nick Franklin, up for a fairly-good club controls player ... you'd have to be loco.

I've got no idea why the blog-o-sphere doesn't get James Paxton. But they'll see.

BABVA,

Dr D

Comments

Butler >>>2012 Seattle DHs

Door #2 says it's easier to get a good LF than a solid MOTO DH. Just look at the Mariners. We had solid players try to DH in 2012, but could only hit while they played in the field. Butler is a proven solid MOTO DH against LHP/RHP, and he hits in the Safe. A player like that makes our lineup more respectable. Gordon would help solidify the OF, but we'd still have the black hole at DH. However, If we traded for Butler, we'd have to move Montero to 1B or to another team's 25 man roster.

Edwin Starr

Edwin understood, Doc. WAR isn't all it's cracked up to be.
That being said, I like Gordon. Really! But I'm not sending KC two guys who might be just as good, individually. Wouldn't be prudent.
Butler is a mashing-cleanup-hitting-lineup carrier. Since we're an AL team short on that template, I'm taking him over Gordon.
But I said "...we will talk," not "we will swap." Now I'm sniffing at a deal but I'm still just sniffing. What else do I get from other angles? Would make a difference. Is Franklin a SS? If not, we've got lots of 2B/3B types, several of whom might just be better. His position would make a difference, certainly.
Can you include Hultzen instead of Pax? What is Hultzen and Franklin worth? Butler?
KC is loaded with young bat mojo, not with arms. How desperate are they for arms? Pitcher #2, Hultzen and Franklin? What's that worth?
Butler becoomes our Posey. Enhance him with some very safe 100-115 guys like Saunders, Seager, dare I say Ackley, and Jaso and you have a fine and dandy lineup.
If Butler is there for the getting, even Gordon, our play isn't one of desperation. We've got chits. they aren't all named Paxton.
But I'm sniffing all around that Butler dude.
moe

Montero

It kind of comes down to what folks think we have in Montero. I'm higher on him than most so no way I trade for another DH. I'm OK going into 2013 with the infield and DH, excepting some Smoak insurance.
It's the OF that worries me. Gutz is fragile. We have hopes for Saunders but he needs to take another step forward in order to be the guy we want him to be. Then there is the Wells/Thames/Robinson grab bag - none of whom I really believe in. I would pay a little more to lock in that 800+ OPS that Gordon would deliver for the next three years than most, I guess.

Futures

"I kept tellin' ya, Homer, ya gotta sell your pumpkin futures before Halloween. BEFORE!
The M's are left this offseason without any Pumpkins to flip. Any prospects the M's have are blue chippers on the rise whose value is only set to increase over the next season. No obvious "sell high" types left.
I bet Z has received more calls about his young talent than has any other M's GM. I do dig how Z and T-Mac's drafts stock the coffers with the most valuable commidity in MLB. Does seem as though Z really only has to press the "talk" button on his blackberry this time of year :)
Other GM's want to get a hold of that commodity before the price explodes after their first couple weeks of MLB successs. I find it comforting that OTHER orgs are going to have to verpay for OUR futures :)

A few more data points

Franklin in the AFL:
SS 2 games
2b 9 games
DH 3 games
[All the nitty-gritty on all the Ms guys (including the actual rising star -- Carson Smith) here.]
vs. RHP in Arizona: .343/.465/.657 (yowch!), 6 XBH, 8 BB, 6 K
vs. LHP in Arizona: .308/.357/.308, 0 XBH, 1 BB, 4 K

Who can they flip?

The only possibility is Vargas and then you lose an inexpensive lefty. He's only going to cost around $7M a year, pitched well in 2012 and wants to play here. You only trade him if you can get a cheap #2 that you've fallen in love with. Here's another thing, if you sign Vargas for $7M this year, you have spent $75M of your total Budget and don't need another corner outfielder or 5th outfielder. You can trade for catcher at the minimum, platoon Wells and Thames at one outfield position, and use Peguero, Robinson, or a Rule V player for the 5th outfielder. They don't have to spend more money if they don't wish to. It's pretty obvious that the Budget is going to be at least $90-$100M this year at a minimum so there's as much as $25M space for salary and they could make a few trades where the cost would be much less. Zduriencik has excess inventory this year and needs to make some trades. I expect him to do this before the 40 man roster is set on November 20th if he possibly can. Jay Yencich has a post up on this at USS Mariner and you can make your own mind up on just how much excess inventory there is.

KC needs pitching, not Franklin

I would think they'd be more interested in Paxton and Vargas. I'd also hope they could be steeredtowards Hultzen in place of Paxton.
If I were KC, having 2 spots now fairly well filled in my rotation, a deal including Vargas, Paxton/Hultzen, Beaven + would be pretty appealing to me. I don't hate Beaven, i'm actually trying to view it as what I would want for Butler/Gordon +. Maybe cash from the Ms depending on which of the 2 and the rest of the particulars.
Doesn't Vargas make a lot of sense for the Royals, just like their established hitters do for us?

don't need another corner outfielder...

Where do you suggest putting a bat or 2 at if we don't need an outfielder?
Besides that, you're starting the offseason with $15 million going to pitching. I could see Vargas being kept, but it seems possible to me that he helps get a bat or more as a part of a deal. So many moving parts that it's so hard to guess.

If Zduriencik can't make a trade or get a OF in FA.

My comment that they don't need to increase Payroll at this point is nothing more than to show that Zduriencik is not in a position where he is going to be forced into doing something stupid as he has a complete team right now. There are only a few moves that are left to be made and they will be obvious if they are made. Even if they keep Vargas, they still may want either a #2 or a #5 SP and trade a SP away at the coming trade deadline.
And thanks Jeff, I can post now.

Payroll

On the payroll... Most estimates I have seen take into account Vargas getting 7-8 mil in his arb 3 year so even if we sign him for 2/14 or whatever we should still be below $75 mil at this point. In the $67-69 range

Vargas

is a major risk for pretty much all teams not named the Seattle Mariners. His extreme home/road splits and his flyballing lefty tendencies mean he's basically the perfect Safeco pitcher, a guy who is better for us than he will be anywhere else.... sort of like reverse Beltre. Most teams, I imagine, recognize this fact and will be wary of giving up too much for him.

#2 SP

As much as people seem to want Z to spend on offense, I really do think that if he's going to hit the upper end of the budget without making any egregiously bad signings he's going to have to add one of the upper-mid range starting pitcher options. And I think he should, too; Beavan isn't exactly irreplaceable and neither is Vargas. I disagree that the Mariners are "complete" (I don't like our outfield depth, our rotation depth, our first base depth or the idea of starting a Thames/Wells platoon in one corner), but I agree that he may come in underbudget--and that's OK. Hey, use the spare cash to extend Felix!

Complete

This was used in the sense that he has a team he can play with right now and I believe that to be correct if nothing else could be accomplished this year. Zduriencik is going to trade for a back up catcher which he will get done. He can get a #2 or #5 SP in FA if he chooses. It's the corner outfielder that is the problem and if he can't get it done this year, do it next year when the FA crop is better and our prospects have another year under their belts.

More on Payroll

I have Vargas at $7M which would put me at $68M without him.

Vargas splits

I guess his 6.92 career ERA at Kauffman might scare them off, though it's only 13 innings. The only teams stadiums he has any significant innings of decent performance: M's, Orioles, Marlins, Athletics and Angels. All but Safeco are pretty insignificant samples of 8 or less starts. 3 of those 5 parks are ones that the mariners play in regularly, which seems to be a positive going forward. However I can't help but think it's a chicken or egg scenario. That's why he has more starts in those parks in the first place. I understand the premises and can't argue that he doesn't have flyball tendencies.
I guess the Royals don't seem like a likely fit but the park seems to be more middle ground on flyballs leaving the park than it being a homer haven that would destroy him. I'm not suggesting the Reds, Rangers or Rockies though, just the Royals.
Just considering options. If he's traded with Hultzen or Paxton that's 2 lefties out of possible future rotations. That's not ideal either. I'll stop dreaming of getting 2 decent royals bats in one trade now.

THIS

Butler is mini-Gar...I'll take line-up glue over a great defensive LF any day for THIS team because...we already HAVE a great defensive left fielder. His name is MICHAEL SAUNDERS. :) Guti is in CF unless he gets hurt, and if he does, we have Wells to fill in there. We have gloves in the OF...we need BATS. Butler is a significantly better bet to be a good hitter for many years than Gordon.

Yeah, but what are we going

Yeah, but what are we going to do with Montero? Looks like his future is at DH, at least much of the time. Unless he is not going to reach his potential, Butler is not a huge move there. And if we do land Hamilton, he's going to need some time at DH too.

Nope...Montero can't hit as a DH

He struggled badly last year when not catching...very badly. Maybe he'll learn, but he can't be our primary DH in 2013 and have us win that way. If Montero can't catch...he can't play with us. At least, that's the way I see it. Trade him to someone else if you can or catch him for now...

Yes, I've heard that before,

Yes, I've heard that before, but IIRC, there was something not clean about those numbers at DH vs catcher... L/R splits, home vs away, small samples etc. Trading him would be fine, depending on the return, but I would doubt he'd catch much once Zunino gets to the show.

DH/C splits can be used in two ways

1. To argue that Montero can't learn to DH.
2. To argue that Montero should NOT be stripped of a catcher's glove, on the dubious basis that "of course you'll hit better, if you just DH."
Personally am not too worried about a rookie pressing when he's "iced" in the DH role, so would not argue #1. I would, however, argue #2, and some day might do just that...

Churchill

Churchill indicates that it might take Walker + Franklin or Paxton, Franklin and one of Maurer/Ramirez to land Gordon.

I don't think that a good

I don't think that a good idea, unless we totally strike out on the FA market or the risks are just too high there. That's the trouble I guess with Paxton having not yet demonstrated ML success... he seems a lot less valuable than Pineda was. I wonder if Myers would take much less to get since he too is "unproven"?

Paxton, Walker, Franklin AND Maurer for Gordon?

LOLOLOLOL...
Not a chance that we would do that. Gordon is not Josh Gibson, sheesh. He's not Stanton either.
I've already said I'd be willing do to something like that to reel in Stanton + Johnson from the Marlins. I'd swap Montero and some serious minor league talent to make that happen.
But as much as I've been an advocate for trading with the Royals, I'm not giving them their future #1-3 playoff starters to add a nice bat to our lineup.
I'd rather sign Melky Cabrera and run Paxton out on our own mound, thanks kindly. We're not gonna set our talent on fire like the Joker with that big Pile O' Money Just because we have a lot of it. The goal isn't chaos, it's competing.
~G