It took Kershaw 4 years in the bigs (granted, 4 young years) to become the Cy Young bundle of C-4 that he's become. His first 3 years?
1: 9 hits, 8.5 K, 4.5 BB per 9
2: 6.5 hits, 9.5 K, 5 BB per 9
3: 7 hits, 9.5 K, 3.5 BB per 9
Years 4 and 5 are where he took off:
4: 6.5 hits, 9.5K, 2 BB per 9
5: 6.5 hits, 9 K, 2.5 BB per 9
Guys with good heat and a good breaker can survive wildness, though - his year 2 and year 3 returns were nothing to sneeze at (ERA+ of 143 and 133 those years).
You wanna see what Paxton's first two years in the system have been?
1: 7 hits, 12.5 K, 4 BB per 9
2: 8 hits, 9 K, 4.5 BB per 9
Paxton's HR rates are miniscule. He simply can't be squared up, and he'll never pipe you an easy one even when his curve isn't dropping in.
And pitchers with excessive heat and repeatable mechanics tend to get it figured out - it just may require patience.
Randy Johnson took until year 5 to become the HOF version of himself, but his ERAs were in the 3s from year 2 on. Kershaw's ERAs were great in year 2 and beyond even though he wasn't TOTALLY dominant. Brandon Morrow (a righty, but with a similar arm) took until year 6... but Brandon WILL pipe you a HR ball, and his higher ERAs reflect his ability to be hit. When his walks came down and he couldn't be hit as easily (because he didn't have to throw hittable balls down the chute in hitter's counts) his ERA came down to where it should be.
Paxton is hard to hit, for either average or power, and I expect him to carry that over to the bigs. In fact, in a league where they'll call the curveball for a strike (a notorious problem in the minors) he'll probably do better-than-expected at carrying that success over.
But if he starts off with high walks.... DON'T FREAK OUT. Price walked 4 per his first year. Bedard? 4.5. Lester 4.5, Gio Gonzalez 5+.... CJ Wilson's walked 4 per for his career, and he's done all right because he's hard to hit.
Odds are, Paxton will walk guys. As Doc said, his foot plant is inconsistent and he's compensating. When he gets it worked out the walks will magically disappear, but even WITH walks he's a TOR starter thanks to what I expect to be low hits and low HRs. Paxton is the sort of arm you deploy knowing that his first 3 years will likely be as your #2 or 3 starter, and his next 3 he may be your ace.
Which is why I don't want to give him up - he can fight a rearguard action while getting the league figured out, and then once he does... boom. And what's fun about this team is we have several pitchers who may be able to do that. We'll see how many we keep to allow them the opportunity. So far Morrow and Pineda have been moved on, and the returns haven't been what we'd hoped at this point.
I would like to see us roll out a couple of those types in the 2013 rotation, though. Felix, Iwakuma, Ramirez, Paxton, and Hultzen could be a formidable rotation with a low disaster-potential. We'd have to keep em around for that to work.
~G
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So the pro scouts rave about Paxton as having #1, #2 starter stuff and usually they are not giving much credit for the curve ball. What are they talking about?
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=== Fastball ===
In the AFL Rising Stars game, Paxton was clocking 90-93 ... it was clear that he was taking it easy, not finishing his pitches, not putting his shoulder into it. Maybe he didn't want to get hurt, revving up from a cold start.
Even so, the gun looked kinda slow; the catcher's mitt was yanking as the pitch slammed it and the hitters were behind several times. Mayo, in the booth, gave Paxton credit for an upper 90's fastball earlier in the 2012 season
In 2011, we ran this article Let the Wookiee Win, which demonstrated the amazing proportion of LHP + 90 MPH success stories there are in the majors:
There were 58 starting pitchers in the AL and NL who averaged 90.0 MPH or more on their fastballs last year. Of these, 12 threw with their left hands:
SP MPH 2011 ERA+ David Price 94.8 107 (and 144 in 2010) Derek Holland 94.2 113 C.C. Sabathia 93.8 147 Clayton Kershaw 93.4 163 Matt Harrison 92.8 131 Jon Lester 92.8 122 (worst year of his life) Gio Gonzalez 92.5 130 Ricky Romero 92.1 146 Cole Hamels 91.7 138 John Danks 91.6 97 (and 111 lifetime) Cliff Lee 91.5 161 C.J. Wilson 91.0 152 That's every left hand starter who threw 90.0 or above.
And in 2012, here's the list of LHP's with fastballs anywhere 90 and above:
- David Price
- Matt Moore
- Clayton Kershaw
- Gio Gonzalez
- Derek Holland
- Jon Lester
- CC Sabathia
- Matt Harrison
- CJ Wilson
- Cliff Lee
- Chris Sale
- Cole Hamels
- Ricky Romero
- Jon Niese
Maybe throwing 90.0 MPH and above isn't a guarantee that your LHP will be a Top Of Rotation starter. But you're telling me you don't like your blinkin' chances here? "Lots of teams have better young pitching to offer the Royals," do they. Wake up and watch a ballgame, dude!
We don't say that every minor leaguer who ever touched 91 MPH is a mortal lock to win fifteen games. The above guys do a lot more than just "touch 91 MPH." They throw hard, and they've got secondary pitches, and they throw strikes.
A lefthander with stuff as electric as James Paxton's, who has shown the ability to throw strikes? Yes he IS two-thirds of the way there. Most fans have not noticed this general truism about baseball talent development; they undersell the value of high-octane stuff from the left side.
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Paxton doesn't throw as hard as Cole Hamels or Jon Niese. He throws as hard as David Price. You're at the higher end of that velocity table. NOW how do you like your chances?
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Paxton's fastball is heavy, "CLONKING" the bats when they make contact. He's a groundball/K pitcher, like Bedard was.
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Paxton's got the EASY velocity, the velocity that comes off leverage and long arms. He's got the velo that will sustain in the 7th and 8th, the Kershaw velocity.
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=== Deception ===
Lemme catch a blow here. Take Sabathia's fastball, Bedard's curve, and now tack on George Sherrill's deception.
Paxton has a real high front side, hides the ball, comes through with great arm action, and you just flat can't read the curve until it's halfway there - wayyyy too late. Like Zito used to.
Paxton hides the ball. A lot better than most guys. Move on.
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===Curve ===
If Paxton didn't have anything but the heater, he'd be a Grade A pitching prospect. For easy velocity, for workhorse mechanics and for deception.
The curve is the best thing about him.
So why are Seattle-ites going "ahhhhh, he ain't as good as the good kids, but he's a'ight." ... ? Because 99% of 'net rats have to see a pitcher win before they perceive that he's got the goods. At what point did any other blog believe that Michael Pineda was a first-class pitching talent? Some of them are still arguing that he never was. Takes a lot to get past a label. Paxton's is that of being wild.
Whateva man. :- ) Other fans will wait around to see whether Paxton's good. You, the discerning SSI consumer, know exactly how good he is, and how good he's going to be ... pending one asterisk. And you know what the asterisk is, too.
That being ...
NEXT
Comments
A rotation including three of the young guns is exactly what I would like to see, too. You should give precocious talkent a chance to show itself. It means that Vargas or Beavan go.....perhaps both, or one goes to the pen. But you invest in Hultzen and Paxton in '13, and the big payoffs start coming in '14.
Good call, G.
moe
What most of us fear will happen though is that Hultzen & Paxton & Zunino all start in Tacoma... and they all come up in early August.
There are worse things that could happen though.
'cause in Zduriencik's fifth year, I doubt he's got that kind of margin for error...