I/O:  Luke French now on the cusp of getting some Safeco starts.  Amidst much weeping, wailing, and gnashing of teeth.

CRUNCH:  SSI has been a bit mis-read on Mr. French.  He has a very low chance of having a good career in the long term, we sez.  But! that doesn't mean he can't cobble together a dozen okay starts.  Any quality AAA pitcher is capable of winning 50% of his MLB games for a month or two, and certainly French is better than "any quality AAA pitcher."

French has a big time yellow hammer and three pitches, and though he's fringe ML, that doesn't mean that the M's can't win 50% of his starts over a short stretch.

Actually think French has a little better shot in the long term than Vargas.  You can visualize the Bansai tree of a 100 ERA+ from French, whereas SSI sees Vargas as defying gravity with no way to adapt.

.

CRUNCH:  But whether Snell, French and Vargas are SSI's kind of pitchers, I'll take a million of 'em before I take the $8-12m Batistas and Silvas.  With gusto. 

Stars & Scrubs baby.  At least we can do something about it, if and when they struggle.  Mix and match until you find a hot hand.  Remember, it's now [Cliff Lee and our pick of Fister-Vargas-French] vs [Batista and Silva].

And I'll take Snell, French and Vargas over the random meatballs that the 80's M's used to choose...

.

I/O:  David Pauley on the M's radar.  Baker with an interesting anecdote that he sits on one side of the locker room by himself, and for two weeks they've been coming in, expecting to see his locker boarded up.  He just keeps hanging around.

Good outing today.

Is apparently the M's #7 starter right now, not counting Lee.  If French went down, Pauley would be next man up.  Or so we hear.

.

CRUNCH:  Pauley is a Padres / Red Sox journeyman who throws 87-89 mph, groundballer but not extremely so (1.8 ratio), will definitely give you strikes.

There are dozens and dozens of these guys around baseball, and Pauley's presumably one of the better ones.  He's got a lifetime 2.0 control in the bigs, across a few seasons.  There are a whale of a lot of guys who don't.

As Baker has pointed out, Zduriencik places a HUGE amount of his evaluation on a player's head and heart.  The M's obviously like Pauley's makeup.

SSI goes to the cold, unforgiving lens in the sky.  There is no signature weapon here to transcend AAA.  Value is at org level, giving depth, and maybe a stoploss for a month in the bigs.

.

I/O:  Looks like Vargas and Fister start the year in the rotation.  Presumably if one outpitches the other in 2 GS, that one sticks.

CRUNCH:  Fair enough.

But hopefully the M's will expand this to say, "whichever 2-3-4-5 gets bashed first, steps out for Lee."  I'd just as soon Ian Snell go to swing man, if Vargas and Fister throw two good games and Snell gets smashed.  Same goes for RRS.

And the same goes for when Bedard gets back.  That is precisely your saving grace with Stars & Scrubs -- keep the fish that measure 12 inches, throw back the ones that don't.

CRUNCH:  The Sept. 2009 M's evidently were as impressed with Doug Fister as SSI was, because he clearly came into camp as the #5 starter.  Forget which amigo admonished me on March 15, "don't worry, Doogie isn't on a short leash," but he had that right.

Again:  I think there's a good 40% chance that Fister will be a nice surprise at the ML level.  Think about that 7:1 PCL control, too.  But Fister isn't a mortal lock the way Shawn Kelley would be.  Don't hold us to a guarantee on 'im.

.

Good show,

Dr D