In the words of my anti-spam password: "enjoy".
Doc, I understand that you want more offense. For SABR guys, offense is 95% of what is actually understood.
But, I'm very disappointed that you either don't mention defense at all (in some posts), or dismiss out of hand that it simply doesn't make that much difference. Hey - I get that there's a Kingdome sized area of doubt and uncertainty when it comes to defensive assessments. I do. But, I gotta step in and note:
2009 - SEA - DER = .739 (1st in AL - 2nd in baseball)
After 8 games, (they haven't updated BB-Ref for game 9 yet), 7th in Ks, 8th in BBs, 3rd in HRs. The run prevention is *NOT* a result of pitching excellence. (If anything, the run prevention is DESPITE the pitching).
But, #1 in fewest hits allowed - #1 in fewest runs and ERs allowed.
It really IS that simple. You allow the fewest hits -- 9 times out of 10, you're gonna have one of the best teams at preventing runs in baseball. You CAN prevent hits by getting more Ks. But - you don't HAVE to.
What would your response be to someone who SCOFFED whenever a HR hitter won a game with a dinger -- "Well, you only hit dingers in every 4 or 5 games, so he's worthless in 75% to 80% of games?" Because that's kinda what I'm getting from you in regards to defense.
Can the Ms maintain a .739 DER? No. That's impossible in exactly the same way maintaining a 74 OPS+ is impossible. But, they CAN maintain a .710 DER.
I think what frustrates me is that you keep harping on the glove guys in the OF -- Chez and Gut -- "They're #4 OFs".
Well, Johjima is the one with a -3 OPS+ -- and Lopez is posting a 60 OPS+ and Beltre a 53 OPS+ through 8 games. Gut and Chavez are *BOTH* beating those guys OFFENSIVELY.
Chavez has a 75 OPS+ for his career - served primarily as a backup. He's posted an OPS+ of 101 as recently as 2006, (in 390 PAs). In truth, he doesn't need to hit .390 or .360 to be valuable. If he hits .290, then he can post a line of something like .290/.331/.400. No, a .730 OPS isn't flashy. It isn't gonna produce lots of ESPN highlights. But, he CAN put up an OPS+ in the mid 80s to low 90s. That's not fantasy. He's done it before. In fact, he did it on a team that WON ITS DIVISION -- while replacing Cliff Floyd, (actually that was the season he went .779 with a 101 OPS+).
And here's some food for thought in regards to the importance of that glove. In 2008, the Mets started slow, but made a run to get back to the top of the division. Endy Chavez was a regular in much of that run - starting for most of that July 18-8 spurt. But, then he was summarily returned to the bench. The Mets swooned in September. The blame was foisted on a collapsing bullpen.
NY Mets - September BABIP allowed (2008) = .331
The worst month prior to September was a .307 in June -- with BABIPs ranging from .278 to .289 otherwise.
Tampa jumped from last to first in DER and in the standings in 2008 - yet, you continue to dismiss the importance of defense.
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Ultimately, even with what I believe is a major blindspot on your part - your desire to see a weakness and fix it is admirable. But, here I think you're just slightly off target. In the end, it is NOT a "big bat" that the club needs to enhance its offense. It is to REMOVE the weakest link(s) in the offensive production department, (ideally, without doing serious damage to the defense in the process).
You have annointed Endy and FGut as those weak links. While they may BECOME the weak links - they certainly have not been thus far. Catcher, prior to the offensive explosion in game 9 was the offensive nightmare for the team.
But, it is FAR too early to be certain of much of anything. The 4 for 5 combined day for Joh and Johnson was obviously a major improvement. I want to see some more of Wlad. I'd also like to see Sweeney and Beltre and Lopez get untracked. But, it's going to be WEEKS before anything resembling a fair assessment of this offense can truly be contemplated.
I/O: On the day that D-O-V laments the 74 OPS+, Griffey bombs the M's into the lead and Ichiro's grand slam collects 10 team bases in one swing.
Crunch: :- ) Am only too glad to see a game in which the M's ram my shtick back down my throat, and here's hopin' they do it about 153 more times...
Even sweeter to see Jered fold under the pressure and fumble the ball that opened the floodgates. Console yourself with another doob, pokey.
If, with Ichiro, the M's claw and scratch their way to a teamwide 100 OPS+, they can challenge... perhaps now that the three-backup-OF's plan is history, they'll do precisely that...
As mentioned above, what the M's braintrust needs to do is keep a very keen eye on that offense. If it drops below league-average, as Dr. D expects that it will if Gutierrez and Chavez continue to start, then they need to address it.
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I/O: Endy Chavez continues not only to hit well, but also to look like a hitter.
Crunch: As long as he's hitting .394, he's a starting player, no argument.
For the moment, I'll probably continue to project him for the 75 OPS+ that he's compiled in 2,300 plate appearances, as opposed to the 120 OPS+ he has this year in thirty-odd PA's. But if he finishes the year at .394, or even .392, I'll be only too glad to reverse myself.
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Chavez' HR Wednesday was a true Funk Blast, probably the funkiest HR swing I've seen. But hey, Little Ichiro is taking a mighty wallop at every pitch and catching the top half of the ball almost every time. The little dude is locked in. Give 'im credit.
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I/O: Jaka replaces RRS after only one start.
Crunch: This kind of sheer agility looks s-t-r-a-n-g-e from our perch in Young Frankenstein's tower. After ONE start, they noticed that RRS can't defend himself out there? Where are the four games they use to confirm their suspicions? For that matter, where are the eight games they use to prove that D-O-V doesn't influence them? ;- )
The quotes that came out Wednesday are definitely those that you hear associated with phantom injuries -- being on the safe side, RRS being frustrated about it, it's only a muscular thing (read: routine postgame stiffness), hopefully I get to play after the 26th, etc.
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Jakubauskas gets the nod? Yowch. They're trying to make Dr. D fall in love. It won't work, we assure you.
Jaka has had wonderful command USED SPORADICALLY. Am going to be awfully eager to see what happens if he gets into a rocking chair over a 100-pitch span.
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Jakubauskas-for-RRS, in mid-April, is a Detectovision.com-friendly decision if we've ever seen one the last four years. I wish it were an 8K/game pitcher that we were staking our rep on :- ) like we did on Lincecum and on Morrow's early promotion .... but hey. We'll take what we can get. The current regime only leaves so much room for suggestions.
We don't say that Jaka's a guaranteed star. But I do like his chances to run a 4.35 ERA starting right now. And am not sure which other #7SP we'd say that about.
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I/O: Torii Hunter's view from field level, via Larry Stone:
Torii Hunter had a great quote in the Angels' clubhouse that reflects the fact that the Mariners are starting to impress their opponents.
"They look different than last year,'' said Hunter. "They look hungry. They've got new life with Griffey, and they still have Ichiro.
The "Master Plan" Wok speaks of, in my view most fundamentally meant a change in the culture from losing to winning . It turned out to be more complex than D-O-V thought it would have to be. It has involved at least five or six separate tactics, one of which has been Griffey's and Sweeney's presences.
That change also happened much faster than D-O-V thought was possible. In ST, Griffey growled at the Ichi-reporters "that was last year," and apparently it actually was.
Chuck Knox and Lou Piniella changed losing Seattle cultures within the space of one year, but Zduriencik and Wakamatsu seem to have done it between games (#162 last year and #1 this year). Remarkable, and of course Griffey is a huge part of it.
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I/O: Ichiro returns with a 10-base hit.
Crunch: Ichiro was born to play on a winner.
On SOOOooooooo many levels, Ichiro was born to play on a winner. That double back- and head-slap that a beaming Griffey game him, after the 10-base parabola, symbolized everything that Griffey has done for this clubhouse and that Ichiro will do for the W/L column.
Ichiro gets along poorly with teammates who lose 100 games and finger-point at the players better than they are. He got along very well with the 116-win types.
The 2007-08 finger-pointing was one of the most shameful things I've seen in 30 years of watching baseball, but in 2009 it's ohwell whatever nevermind. Time for Ichiro to resume his rightful place as the HOF leadoff hitter for a team that wants to win.
Because of the poison excised, Ichiro's return may be the very sweetest note in a week-and-a-half of ... um, FUN ... baseball.
You Go Wok,
Dr D
Comments
Oh, no, the defense has been a big plus in the first week-plus. And you must have missed the several plaudits we've thrown Gutierrez and Chavez already. Like we say, the Endy Chavez of the first 9 games has been Little Ichiro.
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A 75 OPS+ at LF or 1B just doesn't work, regardless of whether he's a Gold Glove, and my projection remains that LF will be a team weakness when Chavez reverts to an empty .270.
But certainly between the two of them they've helped the club, and Wakamatsu himself continues to emphasize that very point.
The DER is #2 in the majors, early on, and the defense is one of those five-six factors that have re-invented the team culture. No doubts there.
Kudos so far to the glove-first lineup. My PREDICTION is as above, but as you (and I) note, the PAST certainly gets tallied up for the glove fans. :- )
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If you recommend the Chavez-Gutierrez outfield ongoing, that's great. It'll give us a chance to debate.
Actually, no I'm not saying I'm "for" (or against) the Endy/F-Gut/Ichiro outfield.
I'm for the best COMBINED offense/defense outfield the club can assemble, (be it with current parts or via trade).
The problem is that it seems to me that when people (not just you) get to talking about improving offense, the whole discussion of what the COST in defense might be vanishes in a puff of smoke.
NOBODY, (and that includes me), has any real solid understanding of how important the TEAM aspect plays into good defense. But, if you assemble a defensive-first team -- and put the gloves out there (over the better bats) - *AND* you have success doing it -- then IMO, if you suddenly swerve to swap out a glove for a bat, you're taking a HUGE gamble on the unintended consequences of swapping out that glove.
The mindset of sabrdom (and when it comes to defense, I think it's more like sabr-dumb), is that defense is all about the individuals -- and that *A* left fielder can only save 20 or so bases -- so if you get a batter who can add 40 or so bases, it's a mathematical certainty of improvement.
I don't think that's how it works. I think bowing to the lumber *AFTER* saying you're serious about defense and *BEFORE* you start losing games from lack of offense, could end up costing you 100 bases from the negative defensive response from the other 8 glove positions.
I'm aware of at least three times where team defense has prevented 200-300 hits between consecutive seasons. And in all of those cases, at least 6 gloves did NOT change. That means EITHER - single positions *CAN* prevent 100 (or more) hits -- (which I think most defensive systems would heehaw at contemplating) - or changing one defensive player can have positive (or negative) impacts on the defensive results of other players.
My position is simple -- an Endy who is posting an 85 OPS+ being swapped out for a Swisher posting a 110 OPS+ *could* end up being a net negative. Not that it WILL. But that it COULD.
More later.
The 2008 Devil Rays offense by position, in terms of their positional OPS+ relative to the league averages at that position:
Stacked below that...VEERRRY conservative projections for the 2009 Mariners using the same reference levels (remembering that league averages drop when you play half your games at Safeco instead of Tropicana)
C: .276/.330/.399 - 104
1B: .244/.369/.486 - 109
2B: .276/.351/.390 - 99
3B: .275/.345/.519 - 122
SS: .273/.323/.389 - 98
LF: .259/.318/.401 - 83
CF: .260/.368/.382 - 101
RF: .244/.330/.442 - 93
DH: .246/.342/.428 - 94
These Mariners:
C: .255/.300/.350 - 92 (Johjima/Johnson/Burke/Clement)
1B: .260/.325/.470 - 100 (Branyan/Sweeney/Lopez/Shelton)
2B: .285/.325/.440 - 108 (Lopez/Cedeno)
3B: .270/.325/.470 - 112 (Beltre/Cedeno)
SS: .280/.315/.390 - 101 (Betancourt/Cedeno)
LF: .275/.320/.390 - 81 (Chavez/Balentien/Griffey)
CF: .245/.300/.370 - 85 (Gutierrez/Chavez)
RF: .315/.370/.420 - 105 (Ichiro/Balentien/Chavez)
DH: .260/.355/.460 - 109 (Griffey/Branyan/Shelton)
Anyone see any reason these Mariner figures are too optimistic as a group? Any reason to think anything other than...if anything this might be too conservative? Speak up if you disagree and I'll consider what you have to say...but I aired WAAAAY on the side of caution on each of these. Now...can you explain to me why this team is so bad offensively that it can't compete for the division?
I'm pretty much with Sandy on Doc's distaste for the D.. Why Doc, why? I blame the Pokey Reese experience. :-)
Still, Endy over Swisher? REALLY? Its not like Swish is a lead glove, hes rated as on the top defenders in LF for several years in a row.
Is he better than Endy with the glove? No. But hes still very good and the offensive difference is MASSIVE. He also fits our need of hitting vs RHP AND hitting vs GB pitchers. You don't GET a better fit than that with his unluckly 2007 season bringing his stock down.
Its irrelevant now since Swisher isn't going anywhere, but would you also be against my suggestion of Gross+Zobrist too?
Agreed that the offense isn't as bad as it looks on the surface, but we could really use a LH FB hitter with good D in our OF rotation, and a LH middle infielder with some bat. Gross and Zobrist would give us a pretty substantial upgrade in areas of weakness.