Doc,
Why look at Branyan in ST against a lefty?
Because it's his job to try and get the MOST out of EVERY player on his team. Watching Branyan against a lefty during Spring Training "might" add some knowledge to his base of what Branyan is doing against lefties. In another article, somebody mentioned that Branyan hasn't had 300 PAs in a season since 2002.
So Branyan only has a .731 OPS against lefties for his career. That's in 328 *CAREER* PAs -- spread over 10 years.
Hey, I know the scouts see things that are "obvious" and probably correctly judge most players who are REALLY platoon fodder - who (for whatever reason) will never be able to hit competently in a lefty-lefty matchup. But, I also know that they get it wrong, too. I know that some lefties, when ALLOWED the chance to play full time and amass a reasonable number of opportunities against lefties, learn how to hit them "better". Not great. Not as well as righties -- just "better".
So Branyan only has a .731 OPS against lefties. The entire Seattle team combined had a .707 OPS in 2008. That .731 OPS doesn't sound tragically awful to *ME*. In fact, it sounds better than the 2008 season line for:
Johjima
Sexson
YuBet
Wlad
Vidro
Reed
Cairo
Clement
Willie B.
Lahair
He had 14 PAs against lefties in 2008. He didn't get a hit.
In 2006, he had 46 PAs against lefties, and posted an .841 OPS against them, (19 points higher than his line against righties).
How much of Branyan's problems with lefties are real - and how much is a self-fulfilling prophecy?
Griffey, in 2008, had 187 PAs against lefties and posted a .649 OPS. For his career, he's 100 points of OPS worse against lefties. In 2008, he's 200. Do we believe the career number or the 2008 figure? Well, 187 PAs is a decent sample size. If you add the .735 in 2007 (218 PAs), Griffey has more PAs in the past two seasons against lefties than Branyan has for his entire career.
I'm thinking the coach wants to get a feel for WHERE the hole in his swing is against lefties. If he learns that, maybe he can have a clue as to WHICH lefties it might be worth to leave him in against.
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My own view is that MANY hitters in the majors get labels -- and once afixed, whether out of respect, ignorance, or laziness, few managers seem willing to challenge the labels. Raul Ibanez was labeled as a meh 4th OF until he turned 30. When he jumped from 250 PAs a season to 500+, he became a completely different hitter.
David Delluci was given the label of hopeless against lefties, (and has a .552 career OPS against them to support that conclusion). But, when he was actually allowed to play FULL TIME, not only did his production against righties soar, (.894), he posted a .706 OPS against lefties. It was only 38 PAs, of course. The following season, DESPITE continuing to post guady numbers, (.904 against righties and .842 against lefties), he was shoved back into a part-time role and managed only 301 PAs in 132 games played.
The question is not whether Branyan kills lefties or not, though. The question is WHO is replacing him against lefties, and what are THEY hitting? Because if its Miguel Cairo, you're probably better leaving Branyan in the lineup. If it's a healthy Mike Sweeney -- Sweeney is almost certainly going to be the call. But, that "healthy" qualifier is a HUGE reason to go ahead and give Branyan some looks against lefties when it don't matter -- because chances are high that at some point in the season, there aren't gonna be a lot of .731 OPS against lefties options on the bench to go to. I'm thinking in 2008, there weren't ANY.
=== Ken Griffey Jr, Sizzlin' Lefty Sock ===
TV game tonight showed highlights of Junior, quicker to the ball than the other night, smoking two rockets to center field. One of them hit 20 feet up a wall that was 410 feet away, meaning that Griffey hit the ball 425 feet to center. If you're just joining us, the bathead is moving faster as it has traveled farther through its swing arc, which is why long home runs are hit to the pull field. Griffey once tried to teach Darren Bragg how to hit. He said, "Get the bathead out here," holding it out in front of home plate, "not back here," he said, holding it parallel to the plate as if hitting a ball to CF. "Back here (to LF, CF) there's no money, no production."
I'm not sure any current Mariners are CAPABLE of hitting a ball 425 feet to center field, ever, unless you count Jeff Clement as a current Mariner. Maybe Russell Branyan. In any given year there are only a handful of pitched balls hit over 435 feet in game conditions -- to any field.
In other words, Griffey's swing looked better; on the highlight reels it also looked quicker and shorter to the ball.
.................
Why hit to center field then, Junior? Classic groove-your-timing concept since the days of Teddy Ballgame. "Start out hitting to center; then the pull takes care of itself." In other words, once you're squaring up the ball with authority, your natural reactions create the home runs.
..................
On TV, Mike Blowers and Bill Krueger were talking about spring training, and about their discussions with Junior this week. As the story goes, Griffey has been hitting BP homers at will, "but I'm not there yet." That's how it goes with the greats, sez Blowers: like pro golfers, they can tell you when they get their groove on, by a little feel in their own bodies.
Where's Griffey, then? Getting closer, sez they.
...................
The moral of the story is: yes, it's just spring training. And yes, it's a little early to be judging Griffey's or anybody's form by what happens in a given March game. True dat.
What's interesting to me is Griffey's own confidence. If he didn't feel right, if he felt himself losing it, I'd expect him to be saying things other than what he is. But that's just me.
.
=== Russ Branyan and Jeff Clement, Lefty Socks ===
Both were in the game against the hard-throwing lefty Kershaw. Undoubtedly Wok's idea is to get a personal look at them "see what they can do" against a star lefty, when the games don't count.
I could tell Wok what Branyan can do against lefties, because they keep statistics on that stuff these days. Career OBP of .284, with a pitiful 34/127 eye ratio.
Last year, Branyan was 0-for-14 against LHP, with 8 strikeouts and 0 walks. It's a little weird; Don Wakamatsu is supposed to be a graduate of the Oakland A's 21st Century School of Sabermetrics. Why's he judging Russ Branyan's L-on-L ability by watching a couple of March games? And it's not like Wok hasn't been in the same league with Branyan before.
....................
This isn't a jump-at-shadows thing on Dr. D's part. Blowers and Kreuger were talking darkly about Branyan being the fulltime 1B, playing against both RHP and LHP -- even with Shelton/Sweeney on the team.
I understand Capt Jack's enthusiasm for Branyan; hey, it encourages US, because Capt Jack had Branyan in 2008 and is a True Believer. That much more reason to believe that Branyan can survive 450 ABs' exposure.
But what's with the talk about starting Branyan against the Kershaws of the game, when you have Shelton / Sweeney / Wlad / Johjima available? I mean, why?
.....................
As Blowers neatly pointed out -- even if Branyan were a platoon player, you'd still have the issue of all those AB's he got late in games after the bullpen came in. And you'd better believe that if the other manager is EVER going to make a platoon switch, Russ Branyan is going to be exactly the time he makes it. Game in, game out.
Wok needs to be willing to swap in Sweeney/Shelton DURING games, never mind BETWEEN games. Am not sure how a couple of March games are supposed to help him determine whether that's the right policy. Are we short on data here? What's the confusion?
Go M's,
Dr D
Comments
*standing O*
Well said, Sandy.
Branyan CAN hit lefties, Doc. The career .731 OPS is low on the OBP, but it's not short on his #1 contribution...pop. If he hits .731 against lefties this year, he'll have an outstanding year, because even with Blowers and company talking about Russell "Grand" Branyan hitting against some lefties, you know he's not actually going to start against the RJs and Kershaws of the world in games that matter and he's going to continue to hit .850+ against the righties. :)
Shelton and Sweeney...whoever wins that platoon job...will protect him "enough". Fear not.
Clement is not ready. He needs another whole year in AAA IMHO...have one of the Mariners' AAA hurlers who has a good breaking ball throw him 15 curves down and in every single day during batting practice until he learns to adjust. I physically cannot watch him whiff on breaking balls and change-ups down and in anymore...it makes me violently ill. The Mariners should break camp with Robb Johnson as the back-up catcher and Johjima the clear cut starter. The one time he hit the ball hard last night, Clement whacked a fastball for a double...but that does nothing to convince me he's prepared.
Someone can correct me if I'm wrong on this, but wasn't Branyan pushed into a platoon role rather early in his MLB career. You don't learn how to hit lefties by not facing them, so it's possible he can and the sample is just spread out so much that we don't know what to make of it. That's pure conjecture on my part.
The more likely scenario is that Cap'n Jack promised Branyan more at-bats against lefties than he usually has and more playing time overall. Spring Training ABs are a nice way of looking like we're making good on that without any real consequences. Later on, if we become more certain that we don't want to run him out against even the lesser LHPs of the AL, then we can make that adjustment in April or the beginning of May, but in the meantime it's a show of good faith to a guy that we are going to be relying on for the next six months.