State of CF

=== Franklin Gutierrez ===

M's broadcasts continue to show that Gutierrez has a marvelous zone rating.  It's cool to see the M's sabermetric team linked up with the face of the franchise up there in the broadcast booth.

How does this happen?  Typically, the saber employees sit in meetings with Tony Blengino, to whom they have full access on a day-to-day basis.  If it's a typical white-collar enviornment, you as a saber employee can talk to Blengino just like you talk to the guy in the cubicle next to you, though when you do get Blengino, it's usually in a small, casual committee, or perhaps in his office for 15 minutes at a time on his agenda.

Blengino can talk to Zduriencik with full access.  Zduriencik goes over and talks to the TV production guys about things he'd like to see.  The result:  you start seeing stuff like Zone Rating on TV, and you see it in sound-bite form, again and again and again until it's part of the common consciousness.

Or that's the way it would have happened in the places I worked, anyway.  So, that's one more very cool thing about Capt Jack's administration.  Sabermetrics gain traction in popular consciousness.

...............

By the way, center field in Safeco makes everybody look great.  Randy Winn looked like an elite CENTER fielder when he played there, posting a 2.95 range factor compared to a league of around 2.6 per game.  Hey, Winn catches 50 more balls a year than other quality ML center fielders!  Great!

Jeremy Reed ran stats that were considerably better than other AL center fielders (a very high standard). 

Mike Cameron admitted that the ball "floats" in center at Safeco and, in effect, Safeco gives each CF an extra three steps on the ball while it hangs.  Give Torii Hunter, even now, a 3-step time warp in Safeco and see what the sabermetrics say about him.  :- )

.................

I think that Gutierrez is an above-average center fielder, but I also think that there is about to develop a giant myth around his defense.

Angles and jumps-on-the-ball are fine, but most ML center fielders get a jump on the ball.  Gutierrez isn't a speed burner; if anything his speed is routine.  The developing myth that he's Richie Ashburn out there is out of contact with reality, in my view.  

There isn't much point in going to try to count up where F-Gut is, using stats; Safeco doesn't allow it IMHO.

He's a plus with the glove, of course.

...............

I have a feeling that Gutierrez' current 93 OPS+, with a 1:2 eye ratio, is about what you're going to get from him in Safeco.   He'll get older, but Safeco will wear on him more.   Could be wrong.

Objectively speaking, he's part of the reason that our scoreboard is always 2-1 in the seventh.   Both ways.

................

Just the same, Gutierrez was the first step in Capt Jack's master plan -- play crisp defense ... do it with less-narcissistic personalites ... play crisp baseball .... and pay attention.  I'm down with that 100%. 

If the M's could get hitters in the corners, Franklin Gutierrez would be fine.   He isn't anybody I'd keep Dustin Ackley out of CF for, but he's a good soldier in a worthy battle.   The next wave of G.I. Joes will, hopefully, do even more.

Cheers,

Dr D

Comments

1
Taro's picture

I think Safeco does pad D stats in the OF to a certain extent, but I think Gutierrez's defense is absolutely legit. Franklin Gutierrez has Cameron-esque instincts in CF. I think that his routes are even BETTER, which makes up for the difference in speed.
He leads the league in RZR and UZR and was #1 by a large margin the past few years by Bill James' plus/minus in RF. Gutierrez is THE best defensive CFielder in baseball IMO and hes already the 3rd best overall position player for the Ms.
Winn's RZR as a full-time CF in 2004 btw was .825. Thats Safeco.  

2

Doc...you are badly...badly misinterpreting some things when you talk about CF in Safeco.
1) the 2004 Mariner pitching staff was extremely flyball oriented.  Seriously...check out the guys on that staff...Moyer, Pin-AIR-o, Franklin, Madritsch, Mateo, Guardado, Villone, Hasegawa...all flyball pitchers in 2004.  The team's GO/AO ratio was 0.83 to a league average of 1.04!  That's what's causing Randy Winn to have a 2.95 RF in center.  Much more than Safeco Field.
PCA picks up on this, BTW, and gives Winn 2.3 defensive wins in center that year (a .280 PCA-BA, .270 being the average fielder)...right in line with the entire rest of his career, including San Francisco and Tampa Bay, neither of which have the CF bias you believe yourself to be observing).
2) Franklin Gutierrez isn't just doing well by RZR like Randy Winn.  He's doing RIDICULOUSLY ASTOUNDINGLY well.  His .984 (!!!!!) RZR is head and shoulders better than anything Randy Winn could have dreamed about.
3) I see no discernable sabermetric evidence that Safeco FIeld has been pro-CFer in its history...you've got these PCA-BAs for the position since the park became our regular home (2000 onward):
.288, .306, .295, .389 (Cameron's great 2003 season), .280, .272 (Reed), .291 (Reed and Ichiro)...Ichiro himself didn't rate as anything more than a pedestrian good CFer at Safeco...so are you ready to claim that he was only average and that Safeco made him look good?  I think not.  The Mariners like to get good defensive players in center...the park demands good defense in the outfield and they get it.  They also have had primarily flyball pitching staffs since Safeco came into being, perhaps because they know they can get more out of flyball guys than most other clubs.  That's the bigger reason Safeco range factors look a little high.

3

Though if you don't want me to be real sharp with you when I believe you've messed up, then return the favor.  The game plays two ways.
......................
The information you provide is interesting, but
(1) name the CF who ever looked BELOW average in Safeco (and Winn/Reed are definitely below the high bar that exists there).
(2) I'm going by eye.  That's not a legal defense, but in terms of baseball chat, I'm sitting there in the 3rd deck all year -- not in NY -- and I am seeing that ball hang in the air.
(3) If you're going to say stuff like "Ichiro's stats looked pedestrian" then please specify that you're holding up your own favorite metrics as the gospel.   
Ichiro in 2006 had a 3.06 RF and threatened for a while to set an ML record for putouts.  If you want to use PCA or whatever, then asterisk it.
...........................
It's possible that I'm "wrong" but it's not possible that I'm misinterpreting stats, because the basis for my belief is my eyes in the 3rd deck, and Mike Cameron's evaluation.

4

A legitimately plus glove, but I don't believe that he is a great defender.
Have you guys ever played OF?  What do "instincts" mean compared to a 10.4 100 meters?  Diddly squat.
That "gets a good jump" and "has good instincts" is pretty much liverwurst.  Nothing replaces track speed in the outfield.
;- ) Love and kisses, Dr D

5

Who the AL center fielder is that you amigos believe gets a *poor* jump.
Do you ever see a ball hit, pivot your head to the OF, and *not* see Torii Hunter or Josh Hamilton in full stride?
We're not comparing Gutierrez to you or me, when discussing his "jumps".  We're comparing him to other players who get awesome jumps, too.
.................
I can believe that Smooth Outfielder X is good.  I have a hard time believing he's the very best, if he's not fast.

6

That's what i was primarily questioing, Doc...your field-level view could still have at least SOME merit, but that's twice now that you've used range factor incorrectly.  2.95 from Winn (correct for the flyball staff and his RF looks perfectly in keeping with his career) and now 3.06 from Ichiro (again...the 2006 Mairners were a flyball staff outside of King Felix, though not to the same extreme)...
But I was not actually talking about PCA...I was talking about UZR, RZR, and PMR, which by the end of the season in 2006 made Ichiro look like a good center fielder but not a particularly eye-popping one...and that is, once again, perfectly in keeping with his performances in right field and his reputation.
RZR for Ichiro in 2006: .938 (very good but short sample),  in 2007: .893 (solid, but not eye-popping) UZR/150: 1.1, 6.7 (2006, 2007), Pinto: +19 plays 2006 and 2007 combined
Analyzing his performance with a statistic that is not badly biased by context significantly reduces the possible influence of Safeco on performance stats for our center fielders.
BTW, Reed, by UZR rated a +9.3 per 150 in 2006, but a -5.6 in 2007 and Randy Winn was a pedestrian +4.4 in CF in 2004.
Ask yourself, Doc...when was the last time the Mariners had a below average defensive center fielder starting full time?  Randy Winn was at least average out there, as was Jeremy Reed.  Cameron, Ichiro and Gutierrez were all noticeably better than average.
I'm not saying there's no bias...I'm saying it's probalby pretty small and it does not explain Franklin Gutierrez' far superior numerical performance in CF.

7

Lastings Milledge got TERRIBLE jumps.  Until this year, Adam Jones was getting pretty darned terrible jumps in the OF.  For all the ballyhooing about Hamilton, I don't much care for his jumps in CF either.  Juan Pierre, for all of his track speed awsomeness is a DREADFUL defensive center fielder and has been his entire career specifically because he has a noodle arm and gets terrible jumps and routes on the gappers.  Ken Griffey Jr., in his prime, was a lousy route-runner even though he looked all smooth and cool out there...he was also bad at defensive positioning and gave up too many singles to cut off the doubles.
There's more to CF defense than speed.  You need speed, but the outfield game isn't quite as one-dimensional as you're making it sound...you need to have a minimum-standard arm (this is part of the reason Damon and Bernie Williams failed in CF over the long haul), you need to be intelligent with defensive positioning (the achilles of Griffey, Milledge, and in a recent Devil Rays contest...Kapler), you need good outfield instincts and the aggressive ability to run to the spot rather than having to adjust to the ball flight, and you need to balance aggression with risk aversion (One of Ichiro's many strengths...he doesn't dive or slide for balls he determines have a low probability of being caught...he's maligned for this but it's probably better for the defense).
And yes...I think the little things that are not raw track speed can and do make big differences.

8
Taro's picture

Gut is fast. Hes not blazing fast like a Carl Crawford, but he definetly has above-average speed.
Focusing solely on speed in the outfield is like focusing solely on power at the plate. It helps ya (and I believe you need to have above-average speed to be truly elite), but theres so much more to great defense.
By that logic theres NO QUESTION that Wlad is a better hitter than Ichiro. Hes stronger after all.

9
Taro's picture

Using the track analogy lets pretend we have two trackers going against each other. In 20 meter dash what if one guy consistently gets a 0.3 second head start against the other? That ALONE is enough to decide the race.
What if that same guy gets to run 15 meters as opposed to 20?
What if that same guy also get to run a STRAIGHT 15 meters as opposed to the other guy that gets to run 20 meters at an angle?
Also what if the first fielder was standing within 10 meters of the goal line in the first place while the second fielder was standing 20 away?
And if a fielder MISreads a ball? Game over. A Sumo Wrestler is going to get to the ball before a track star does if he reads the ball on point. Well not that far, but I think I'm getting the point across.
In the big leagues nobody that isn't fleet-footed is playing in CF. What seperates them defensively is skill, skill, skill. The marginal differences in speed matter much less in comparison.

10

In order to try to get some context, here are the percentiles for speed score various centerfielders belong to by my eyeballing the chart on their PECOTA card:
Gutierrez- 73%
Jeremy Reed- 72
Randy Winn- 74
Mike Cameron- 79
Torii Hunter- 66
Josh Hamilton- 62
Carlos Beltran- 89
David Dejesu- 79
Adam Jones- 80
Gary Mathews- 76
B.J. Upton- 88
Vernon Wells- 58
Chris Young- 84
 
Reminder, that's based upon a weighted average of the past three years, not including this season.

11
Sandy - Raleigh's picture

Almost nothing ...
Let's face it, guys.  Everyone who has spotlighted defense in their sabrmetric scope over the past decade HAS to understand one thing.  We STILL *know* a lot less than we don't.
I think everyone here understands that even using the best, most modern major metrics for defense remains essentially "suggestive". 
Honestly, I'd like to see home/away defensive splits.  Road defensive numbers, (IMO), would be VASTLY more useful for identifying INDIVIDUAL defensive skill, rather than organizational.  As a rule, I would expect the best defenders to be able to learn to play their own backyards superior to opponents.  If a team has a staff built to take advantage of a park, then there should be skewing.
But, road stats - where some of the parks will skew plus - some minus - for any particular staff, I think you're more likely to get a better read on the individual ability to defend, and suppress some of the organizational stuff.  I don't know anywhere to get Z rating splits for home/away -- but I'm hoping Matt can take a stab at doing that for PCA.
 

12
Fett42's picture

The two fastest players I can think of in recent memory are Juan Pierre and Joey Gathright (who was timed with a 6.1 second 60 meter), and while above average neither of them were near what Gutierrez is in the field, either aesthetically or statistically.

13

The home/road split question was for a time, partially addressed by the F/S Matrix.  One of the variables the matrix tested was how each team's offense and defense uniquely reacted to each park in which they played.  Solved for simultaneously with all of the other variables (offensive skill, defensive skill, strength of schedule, intrinsic park factor, umpire factors, league context), I got some rather interesting and suggestive results, mostly for "extreme" teams.  The 2001 Mariners, for example, reacted uniquely well to Safeco Field both offensively AND defensively (their net mark reaction scores were +0.326 R/G scored and -0.605 R/G allowed)...i.e. a lot of their success that year may have been attributable to their being ideally taylored to Safeco.
When I put starting pitchers into the matrix (to improve my understand of the strength of defense faced by each offense), the park reactions became highly unstable and caused everything to look way wrong.  We think that having too many small-sample variables in the matrix causes it to lose sight of the best solution.
The alternative approach, at least in the PBP era, will be to rate everything as normal but account for how defenses react to each park as a sort of side-calculation for further research.

14
Sandy - Raleigh's picture

Well, it doesn't help in terms of individual defensive assessment - but bbref does provide the BABIP numbers for pitching staff, both home and away.  The 2009 numbers so far?
Home: .287 --- Road: .282
While there is a major home advantage in opponent OPS -- and the bulk of that IS slugging and HR-related, (.361 slugging in Safeco and .410 away -- with a 29/39 home/road split in nearly identical PAs), the evidence in 2009 says ...
The defense at home is EXCEPTIONAL at preventing XBHs -- turning both HRs and 2Bs into singles.  But, the defense at Safeco (this year) is NOT producing a lower BABIP.  Of course, 2/3 of the Ms OF this season were brand new to the team, so experience in the Safe was minimal. 
The only certainties are:  The 2009 defense is drastically better than the 2008.  The primary difference in defense is in CF/LF.  The defense (in terms of making outs), is not significantly better at home than on the road. 
The lack of HRs -- and the reduced XBHs both support (to a degree) the concept that balls are getting "held up".  But, the evidence does not suggest that this is producing additional outs, (and thereby skewing RF results - or even ZR results).  Of course, if the "held up" ball theory is true -- then a potentially viable strategy is to play deep - and instead of attempting to steal outs on short balls, you steal bases from the opposition. 

15
Taro's picture

.328 wOBA, 99 OPS+. Hes an ABOVE-average bat at CF and brings the best defense in the game.
Its time to admit you were wrong on Gutz Doc. Not only is he an above-average player, he has developed into a STAR player. 2.2 WAR in a less than half a season. Hes every bit as good as Cameron was in his prime.
For me I don't want to see Gutierrez go anywhere. Hes a fixure in CF for the next several years. With Ackley projecting to LF now and a Langerhans/Wlad platoon capable enough in the short-term, I REALLY wouldn't mind auctioning off pieces like Greg Halman and even Mike Saunders for long-term middle infield solutions.
ANY OF propects in A+ or higher are probably NEVER going to see the light of day. Its time to trade from a position of strength. You don't want another situation like Wlad where you don't have space for a guy and he loses all his trade value. None of these guys in the mid to high minors are going to make it in this outfield.

16
OBF's picture

Average.  Doesn't a 99 OPS+ make him slighlt bleow average with the bat?  IIRC OPS+ takes psoition and park values into account, right?
Anyways I understand with the OUTSTANDING defense why the total package is a VERY nifty player and one we need to hold onto for a while, just getting clarification on the offense.
BTW, in last nights game Gutz ran down a long fly ball off Melky Cabreas bat that would have been a sure double for pretty much every other CF in the game.  MAYBE Torii gets to it two years ago ... MAYBE.  Cameron when he was in his prime probably gets to it as well, but no one currently would have I don't think.  Adam Jones probably runs into the wall trying to get to it (missing it by 15 feet) and turns it into a triple ;)  Certainly last years CF's (Reed and Ichiro) don't get anywhere near it, although both of thee would have played it nicely off the wall :)

17

:- ) But you're picking a little uptick in his offense ... he spikes up to 99 for a second and BOOM "it's time you admit you were wrong".
Wrong about what, by the way?  What is it you think I have asserted about him?
................
My fundamental opinion about Gutierrez is that (1) the jury is out on his offense; (2) he's a terrible match for Safeco offensively; (3) I'm not sure whether he is GOOD vs. GREAT on defense, but considering his lack of speed, I'm skeptical that he's great.
What about that has been proven wrong?  :- )

19
Taro's picture

OPS+ doesn't adjust for position though, but I agree with the rest of your points. :-)
Either than Torii Hunter though, I think he was a good CF in his prime but slightly overrated.

20

When it comes time to run a long ways to get a ball that is hanging in the air, Gutierrez does shine.
Also loved the ball he came in on the other day.
..................
What I don't get, is why Seattle fans are forgetting that fans in other cities get their CF's on the highlight reels too.  :- )  
The disconnect here seems to be people forgetting just how good people like Granderson, Upton, Morgan, etc. are.   I'm not saying Gutierrez might not be in the top 6 or 8.  But most Seattle fans seem to imagine that Gutierrez outruns Curtis Granderson by three strides every play. 

21
OBF's picture

I am talking about above?  Which other CF in the league gets to that?  My contention is that NONE fo them do, and certainly none of them on the run (without a dive), making it look easy as pie.
So yeah if a player does something that no one else in the league can do, I think that defintely puts him in the category of GREAT not merely good, timed foot speed be darned ;)

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