San-Man with his usual contrarian freshness. Not often that we debate lately, but since our good bud Sandy took his 15 minutes, I guess we'll shuffle on up for our 15. :- )
.
I/O: While I think a lefty goes to the pen with Lee's arrival (cause the pen has no lefty). I'd agree that *TODAY* Snell is likely to follow when Bedard arrives. Except, Bedard doesn't arrive today. So, I think any of the bottom three could play themselves out of a job between now and B-Day.
CRUNCH: Ya, and this is exactly what the Mariners themselves are saying right now. They want to wait until the last possible second to make a call. Reminds me of June draft day, when a Max Scherzer type can go from #2 overall to #19 overall to #5 overall based on his last two starts. :- )
Which means that these April starts matter a whale of a lot - more than I'd like them to. SSI pegged Snell as the odd man out long ago, and wouldn't be revising this day-to-day. But, yeah.
.
I/O: I think anyone "assuming" perfect health from the guys coming off the DL is just asking to be frustrated. And there is the rub. Once you trade away Snell, he ceases to be a fallback option. Who is next in line? French? Olson?
CRUNCH: Yes I have tired of the straw-man tackles. SSI wishes that San-Man would credit us with a bit more intelligence, but it is what it is.
Nobody "assumes perfect health" (?!) from any pitcher, much less from Erik Bedard, Rich Harden, or Ben Sheets. We have all, each one of us on this website, carefully marked out the injury scenarios all around.
Every team does need 6, 7, and 8 starters, and SSI has listed its own:
- Felix
- Lee
- Bedard
- Kelley
- Fister
- Vargas
- RRS
- French
- Hill
- Pauley
There isn't a single one of those 10 pitchers that I wouldn't be comfortable giving a month's worth of starts to. In 2011, that expands by two: Pineda and Robles.
True, the more starters the better, in the abstract -- but at a certain point there is a traffic jam to think about. Everybody deserves a chance at a career. You can't just hog mediocre ML starters to yourself, without considering the ballast effect.
A team only has 40 roster slots, and it can't spend them on umpteen MLB(TM) vets cooling their heels for them in AAA and the bullpen. 40 roster slots do not allow all contingencies to be double-redundantly covered. A certain amount of injury risk is part of 40-man-roster management.
.
I/O: Everyone but me seems to be confident that Fister's 80 innings are an indication that he's going to be PEACHY going forward.
CRUNCH: Again, SSI has pegged Fister's chances to succeed at 40-60%. Others' expectations seem to be lower.
Problemo is, SSI pegs Ian Snell's chances to succeed in the AL about about 10%, and we need the roster slot. It's not a question of pegging Fister at 100% and Vargas at 100% and RRS at 0% and Snell at 0%. The opinion at SSI is that Fister has a higher chance of success than Ian Snell.
.
I/O: But, a continuance of a 4.3 K-rate is a SABR death-sentance, (and Doc knows this). There is an ASSUMPTION that Fister is going to get his Ks back up into the 6s. It may happen ... could be in 2012. The key here is we don't KNOW anything certain with ANY of these BOR guys.
CRUNCH: Pretty rare that San-Man and I are on such opposing ends of the see-saw :- )
Actually, Shandler's magic 5.6 K rate refers to a finesse pitcher's chance to be a star, not to his chances to avoid death.
In 2009, SP's in the low 4's included Nick Blackburn, Joel Pineiro and Mark Beuhrle. Jarrod Washburn, Joe Saunders, Jon Garland and others frequently live in the 4's. Paul Byrd, Jeff Suppan, lots of guys.
4.3 strikeouts will prevent you from starring. However, if your BB rate is 2 and your control rate is 2:1, then 4 K's certainly won't guarantee death. Especially not in Safeco, with our gloves.
......................
If Fister's K's get into the 6's, he will be a star in the major leagues, end of story. My question is whether he can bump it from last year's 5.3 to about 5.6 and present a shot at an impact pitcher.
Personally, I'm guessing that with a plus change and sharp curve ball, it's quite possible. But it's not necessary.
.
Add comment