POTD Josh Lueke (Template)

Q.  Any video available on Lueke?

A.  If you know of any, please hook me up :- )

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Q.  What's the template, then?

A.  There are a number of tall RH relief aces with ballista-arms who (1) throw a slider so tight-spin that it's harder to hit than a knuckleball and (2) throw an easy 95.

Back in the day, you had Jeff Nelson, of course, you had Kerry Wood (who has abandoned his slider), you had Rich Harden, KRod and, before he got hurt, Mark Lowe.  Guys like that.

Nowadays the Super-Slider kings of the road include Daniel Bard, Carlos Marmol, and Luke Gregerson.  

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Q.  Is it legit to compare Lueke to these ML strikeout artists?

A.  Yes, because of his minor-league K rates, matched against his template.  It wouldn't be legitimate to compare the typical minor leaguer to them, but it certainly is legit to compare Lueke to them.

This guy will shortly be a top-5 org prospect, perhaps a top-100-in-baseball prospect.  Talk about buying low.

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Q.  Which of these guys are the best comps for Lueke?

A.  Bard throws 96 with a 75-25 mix; Marmol throws 95 with a 50-50 mix; Gregerson throws 90-92 with a 30-70 mix loaded to sliders.

From reports so far, Jeff Nelson his ownself looks like the prototype.  Hoo-rah.  Easy 94-95, a slider that simply moves too much to be hit.  Leuke may have better control, though; Nellie had to put quite a few years in, to get his BB's into acceptable range.  Maybe that's because his slider moved more than anybody's.

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Q.  Picture kind of looks that way, doesn't it?

A.  FWIW, just noodling around :- ) ...

Lueke's tuck is a Nellie reprise:  very tight, arm against the knee, chin and eyes down, very high CG creating a marshmallow-on-a-stick flamingo effect -- you can't "pause at the top" with such a high, tight coil; you bounce into your stroke.

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Q.  Is a Jeff Nelson type a ROOGY?  Do you need to be careful he doesn't see good lefthand hitters?

A.  Well, for one thing, Lueke is widely reported to have developed a good changeup now.  SSI has no doubt whatsoever that this is because purist coaches insisted that you can't get lefthanders out with sliders.

For those just joining us, RH pitchers use FB + Curve/Slider to righty hitters; they throw FB + Change to lefty hitters.  Even Felix does this.  It's just too easy -- supposedly -- for a LH hitter to whack a slow pitch that is moving in towards him.

But Leuke now has a plus change, they say, so the point is moot, from the purists' point of view.

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Q.  Is this true, that guys like Bard, Marmol and Wood can't throw sliders to lefthanders?

A.  Of course not.

This is another example of using a wise general maxim that applies to ordinary pitchers, and forgetting that super-pitchers make their own rules.

But some RH pitchers throw sliders that move so crazily that lefthanders can't find the ball, either.  Do lefthanders hit Felix' 89 mph slider?

Check Jeff Nelson's line in 2001.  Lefties hit .167/.316/.218.   (It wasn't a lot different in 2000, or 2002, or 2003.  Nelson got pounded by LH'ers early in his career, so his career line shows that he's average vs LH.)

Go through the list of Marmols, KRods and so forth and you'll see that if a slider is plus-plus, it's good against either hand.

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Part 2

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