Honestly, I'm more worried about the bullpen than the rotation. I think the odds are extremely small that the club won't find at least two guys that can carry a sub-5 ERA ... and hopefully, that only matters until the end of May, when Bedard returns.
I think back to 2008, when the club had NOBODY to look to after Weaver and HoRam. Today, there's a grab-bag of SIX guys that (if Bedard returns), are competing for the 5th slot. The odds are ridiculously positive that SOMEBODY in that group takes a step forward (control, consistency, new pitch, new arm slot, better attitude). You're not getting 6 rolls to get Yahtzee -- you're getting 6 rolls to make a pair.
The bullpen has me more antsy, where it wasn't as good as perceived, and the top of the bunch has some major question marks. But, to me, Cordero could be the key piece (acquired LAST year), that moves the club from .500 to a true contender.
Seattle led the AL in bullpen LOSSES in 2009 (20-37). With the current offense, that loss total won't drop to 14. But, if improvement in the pen could change that to a 22-20 record, then the club has a legit shot at the post-season.
== 7 ==
Seems to me that the pitching staff starts with seven guys who have established MLB track records and ought to be healthy. Write them in with ink:
Rotation:
1. Felix
2. Lee
3. RRS
Pen:
4. Aardsma
5. League
6. Lowe
7. Kelley
== 2 ==
Then there are two guys with established MLB track records who may not be healthy, but, assuming a return to health on the established and expected course, will fit right back into the staff. Pencil them in:
Rotation:
1. Bedard
Pen:
2. White
== Grab bag ==
Then, WITH EXCEPTIONS, there's a pretty sharp drop down to the "grab bag" of remaining options.
Snell is a POSSIBLE exception, but until proven otherwise, he stays in the grab bag. The Vargas/Olson/French scrum is now the Vargas/Olson/French/Feierabend/Hill scrum, but it is still a contest among guys who have yet to show consistent MLB stuff.
Fister may have the inside track, especially as a righty in a sea of lefty options (excluding Snell), but he, too, is a guy that you HOPE can make it work in the majors. Texeira and Petit are mysteries, but they don't seem to have made their way toward the top of the stack yet.
Rookies: Fields, Varvaro and Orta all have a chance, but the idea of Fields as "instant closer" seems to have faded to "useful bullpen guy."
== Deeper minors, too far away for 2010 ==
AA: Wow. Look out Southern League: Pineda, Robles and Hensley are coming.
A+: Cleto and Kasparek are likely sentenced to High Desert.
AAA is mostly going to be the discard pile from the MLB draw. But where are the guys in between?
== The 2 ==
Between the established list and the mushy grab bag, there are two options who deserve a little more scrutiny.
CHAD CORDERO: Anybody know what this guy did in college?
Frosh.: 64 IP, 12 BB, 63 K (0.4 HR/9, 1.7 BB/9, 8.9 K/9)
Soph.: 55 IP, 20 BB, 81 K (0.3 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, 13.3 K/9)
Jr.: 57 IP, 8 [!!] BB, 68 K (0.5 HR/9, 1.3 BB/9, 10.7 K/9)
He was pitching in relief, but at a slightly tougher level (CalState-Fullerton) than Strasburg. Anyway, he was unhittable (not quite Strasburg, but sub-Strasburg). Went in the first round, went straight from the College World Series to A+ ball, then right to Montreal all in one summer: appeared in 12 MLB games and walked 3 and struck out 12 in 11 IP.
So this is not a guy who was intimidated going more-or-less from college to the majors. Two years later he's an all-star at 23.
Of course, things went off the rails, he got hurt (labrum), gained weight, didn't have his stuff when he tried to come back.
But ... the Ms had no obligation to bring him back this year, but they did. They saw something. He lost 26 pounds. They say he "found his arm slot." They say his velocity is coming back. He says he feels like he did in 2005. He is only 28. Pitched a scoreless inning the other day, and is scheduled again today.
There is no downside here. They aren't asking him to be an all-star closer, only contribute. The upside could be big.
DANIEL CORTES: In 2007, Cortes nailed down A+ ball at age 20, after which he was the #2 BA prospect in the Royals org and #57 in all of baseball:
24 GS, 123 IP, 3.07 ERA, 0.5 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, 8.8 K/9
In 08 at AA, his stock slipped some as he drifted up to 1.0 HR/9 and 4.2 BB/9, then in 8 games in the Arizona Fall League the trend continued and he was up to 1.3 HR/9 and 5.0 BB/9. Still was listed as the #3 Royals and #90 overall prospect in baseball by BA.
Then he repeated AA in 09 and just went totally out to sea, with BB increasing again, to 5.6 BB/9, and Ks dropping to 6.4 K/9, and gaining a rep as a total head case. Cortes-for-Yuni was a mini version of Silva-for-MB, with both teams shedding guys for whom they had thrown in the towel.
His West Tenn stats after the trade don't look too good in the aggregate, but you have to look closer.
Before Aug. 24: 7 GS, 36.2 IP, 28 BB, 31 K (6.9 BB/9, 7.6 K/9)
After Aug. 24: 3 GS, 18 IP, 8 BB, 24 K (4.0 BB/9, 12.0 K/9)
So, at 23, Cortes started to show the signs of turning the corner, and the coaches all agreed. At 6-5, 205, he's got the goods, and he HAS shown that he can go a whole season at 3.3 BB/9 (albeit in the low minors) when he has his head straight.
Maybe at this point he's just a younger and less-experienced version of Snell: a guy who MIGHT put things together, but of all the guys who will be at AAA, he will be the one who could be the most exciting #5 starter by the end of the year.