Remember that a team pays twoce to sign a posted player. The first time in the sealed bid ($5.3M in this case) AND THEN AGAIN to actually sign the player.
So in this case, it isn't unreasonalbe that you're looking at an $8 or $9 million dollar SS (for this season).
The M's certainly have SS candidates (cheap or already purchased) laying around and may have figured that they might have better places to make that level of investment.
And since it is a sealed bid it is very possible that the M's made a serious offer for the guy but that the Twinkies were more serious.
Remember the opportunity cost here is what they M's don't get with the money they might have spent on him.....the other players they could spend that money on.
M's have been quiet. I think Z has a trade coming up. Not the Upton one, either.
Stub thread begging for further commentary from Doc or others...
To my admittedly primitive eye, it sure looks like the Mariners need a shortstop, considering they have no SS prospect anywhere close to ready (Franklin is at least 2 years away...minimum) and no legitimate major league options that can hit better than .650 (OPS).
And it sure SEEMS like the guy who just hit .340 with a near-one EYE ratio and played well-above-average defense at both short and second in the NPB...might just hit better .650 for the Mariners. Especially since he's a switch-hitting contact/line drive type who uses the whole field like Ichiro and can run pretty well. How the heck did a 5.3 million dollar bid from the Twins win this chase? What in blazes does Z plan to do to fix this long-standing gaping hole in our line-up? Why should I NOT take this as evidence that the Mariners are going to be cmopletely pointless to watch in the next three years? Why shold I even bother following this slap-shod team any further?
Inquiring minds want to know.
Comments
...I am of course aware that we would still have to sign him to a contract...that's not the point. The point is...we certainly do NOT have "options around" to play short...unless you enjoy the prospect of watching Josh Wilson or Jack Wilson attempt to hit again. We have ZERO shortstops that are anywhere near replacement level players.
How often can you get a 3 WAR shortstop under contract for 8-9 million dollars? How many 3 WAR SSs are there right now in all of baseball...and how many of those are cheap? This is just plain stupid...you do not commit minor league assets to acquire a shortstop at enormous cost when you can sign one relatively cheaply by market standards and trade for pieces to fix OTHER problems.
I am rapidly losing faith in Zduriencik.
I think this is a huge opportunity missed. Nishioka went very cheap and hes a long-term move due to his youth..
We're still looking for a SS... I guess we hope Luis Rodriguez breaks out (which is possible).
No average shortstop, no average catcher, it makes me miss the days of Dan Wilson and Carlos Guillen and Kenji Johjima. You don't know what you got 'till its gone. What about an average left fielder? What happened to Raul Ibanez and Jose Guillen and Randy Winn? Weren't they traded or dismissed upon suspicion of being average? Sounds pretty good to me. I miss those guys.
It takes a team full of at least average players to play .500 ball. Do y'all remember the good old days under Bob Melvin when the M's were a .500 ball club with average pitching, and average hitting? When are we going to get those days back? All this stars and scrubs stuff sounds good in theory (which is often more fun than watching games) but this year it seems deficient in practice. The problem being that most scrubs only aspire to be journeyman position players, and after watching them, you realize what a high and lofty goal averageness is.
Everything I've read sees him as a needing to move to second-base. Which is incidentally where the Twins see him, too.
The only thing I can conclude is that Jack is either:
(1) Jack is not as high on him as most here. By my observations he has a super glove with fantastic mobility and agility, but he also has a noodle arm which will ultimately relegate him to second base. Sure, he could play short for a year and you could figure his range and glove will offset any plays where his arm costs you.
(2) Jack has what he thinks is an even better option.
However, we all thought last offseason that Jack had better options and they didn't materialize. If that happens again and next season we just trot out a couple of rookies to anchor the lineup, then my opinion of Jack will drop significantly too.
I usually don't skip any opportunity to flay Howard and Chuck, but in this case I find it hard to believe the cost was the issue. I think it must have had to do with Jack's plan and his talent evaluation. I could be wrong, though.
Which is my polite way of saying that scouts are intellectual bigots.
They think he's got to move to second because his arm is not strong. But he's got phenomenal range from all the video footage I've seen in the run-up to this posting. Just because he doesn't have a strong arm doesn't mean he's not a good fielder at short. But to scouts...it's an absolute rule that he's no good there if he doesn't have a cannon arm.
This is why I generally don't much care for scouts.
If we don't put a quality player at short and find a big bat at one of the corners to add to Ackley and Smoak...then Z has utterly failed in his duty to this team and I will have lost a huge chunk of my respect for his leadership.
When it comes to the Mariners and Japanese players, there is a ton of politics that goes on. If Yamauchi doesn't like a guy for whatever reason, the M's won't pursue him.
Question: how does Nishioka's arm compare to David Eckstein's?
In general, its impossible to tell how good or bad a guy actually is until he proves it. Anybody can tell if a guy is extremely good or extremely bad defenseively (well, most of the time). Anything in between is mostly guess-work.
There have been plus defensive SSs with worse arms than Nishioka. The fact that Nishioka led the NPB in putouts and asssists weighs higher to me than the fact that he has a below-average arm.
Regardless, the Twins will probably play him at 2B since they have Hardy. Maybe next year Nishioka moves back if he outplays 2B at the MLB level.
I'd say his arm is definetly better than Eckstein's, maybe a little better than Ryan Theriot.
Ryan Theriot is a pretty weak armed SS/2B, but was a comfortably above-average defesive SS in his prime.
Check out Nishioka making a throw running toward 3B at around 3:18
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6fRGv-35WM&feature=player_embedded
His arm is below-average, but I think its being a bit overblown. Nishioka gets rid of the ball very quickly, perhaps to compensate.
This may not be a first, but I do believe it says a lot when these two agree on something... Jack better do something quick!!!
...we even, I dare say, think very similarly about how to appraise teams and how to approach making improvements when a team is failing. There are some points of disagreement, but I'd hardly say us agreeing on something is all that stunning. :)
It's been clear for a long time that Yamauchi selects the NPB imports, based primarily on personal impression.
Even if Yamauchi had no impression of Nishioka, there are only X number of NPB players that they are going to bring in, and it's very reasonable to assume that the only NPB players who come here will be those of whom Yamauchi is proud.
Very unlikely that the baseball people (1) asked for permission to post, (2) got the permission, and then (3) underbid such a low amount.
....................
You take the good with the bad, I guess. When Yamauchi bought the Mariners, it was as a (sincere) gift to Seattle. Without him and Slade Gorton, the Mariners wouldn't be in Seattle. No surprise that it became a rather static gift, by MLB standards.
You would have to assume, for Yamauchi to have been involved, that not only did Zduriencik think it was necessary to ask permission to get a player he needed...but that Yamauchi HATED Nishioka. Why would Yamauchi stand in his team's way of acquiring a player (for relatively little cost) that the GM was telling him he needed? It wasn't a matter of Yamauchi not having an opinion. There are only two explanations here...either:
1) Yamauchi shot Z down because he actually disliked Nishioka (and that would be hard to believe...the kid just won the Pacific League batting championship while playing an above average shortstop)...or,
2) Zduriencik never asked to bid on Nishioka because Zduriencik didn't want him (which is a spectacularly bad talent assessment or tactical decision, depending on whether Z didn't want Nishioka because he didn't think much of him as a player or because he didn't think it was a good idea to spend money to upgrade at short).
I have a hard time believing Z didn't like Nishioka as a player...and I have a hard time believing that Yamauchi didn't allow us to bid on Nishioka over Z's objection. The only explanation that makes any possible sense is that Z had other ideas for how to spend his limited budget and so did not even ask to bid on Nishioka. And that, IMHO, is one of Z's biggest mistakes.
Art Thiel covers a fair amount of this in his book.
Aside from that, there have been several times that the Mariners passed on this or that player and *publicly stated* that the decision was made at a higher level -- on Dice-K, for example.
The Mariners' M.O. on this has been clear since Thiel's book or before. CPB has it right.
Based on those clips, which are highlights I know, he can survive at SS. His arm may not be a cannon but he covers a lot of space and gets rid of it quickly.
What I was most impressed with, however, is how well he covers the entire plate RH'ed and LH'ed. He can drill the down and in pitch into the corner or into the stands and he drives the outside black pitch into the gap.
He can play.
Minus signing a few MILB FA's, this has been a quiet period for the M's. I think something is going to happen via a trade. Jack may be sitting on that.
moe
OR, Jack just doesn't have the money to spend. It's amazing to me that not one single thread on this considers the financial angle. The payroll is staying at $92 million-ish. Take the current obligations, add your $8million SS and see where that takes you.
It really doesn't matter that the iPad was on sale for $488 yesterday if you've got a big family and your entire budget for the Christmas season is $500.
Sounds to me like the pot was still too rich, and/or Jack doesn't think he's a 3 WAR player. I don't think he's gonna be a great player, but a decent SS would be worlds better than what we have now.
If Jack intends to hold on to Franklin and believes in him, then no, you don't block him off with an immovable Nishioka. I still have my doubts that we can EVER trade a Japanese player.
Hasegawa, Johjima, Sasaki, Ichiro...no trade rumors on any of em. Extended and inflated contracts on a couple, and a couple of save-face retirements back to Japan when it was turning into a disaster over here.
If you can't trade your decent SS when a better SS comes up through the system, and you can't move him to 2B because your All-Star Ackley is there, then you're kind of stuck.
I would be wary of Japanese imports as a Mariners GM. I just would. Once they get there the negotiations and outcomes are out of your hands (See: Chuck Armstrong negotiating Johjima's giant raise instead of the GM).
We can live for a year with a giant hole at SS. We can't live with a hole at SS and 2B and 3B and LF and C and DH. Figgins needs to be better at 3B immediately, Ackley needs to be up sooner rather than later (would they really burn a year of eligibility in order to get him the extra two months of play?), Smoak has to hit from day one...and we still need 2-3 bats.
A catcher who can put up at least a 90 OPS+.
A LF who won't embarrass us, posting something in the 100s.
A DH who can do what our new LF does.
If we can patch the other holes, I can live with a SS issue for 1-2 years. But not moving on Nishioka means we're not patching SS with any free agents, foreign or domestic. So it's either a trade to do so, or it's a known and accepted hole in the 2011 lineup, used as a tradeoff to patch the other holes.
I'd feel better about that if we were currently PATCHING the other holes.
~G
"We can live for a year with a giant hole at SS. We can't live with a hole at SS and 2B and 3B and LF and C and DH. Figgins needs to be better at 3B immediately, Ackley needs to be up sooner rather than later (would they really burn a year of eligibility in order to get him the extra two months of play?), Smoak has to hit from day one...and we still need 2-3 bats."
I believe you pointed out what's the real trouble, lot of holes and a couple of rookies who have STILL to show they belong to the show. Lot, lot of work still for Z and it's hard to imagine he can solve everything by next season.
6 spots in the lineup to fill is quite a bit and this team still needs a starter or two. They also need several relievers. All of this with very limited payroll space. Right now the Mariners need to get MUCH better and they will probably need to do that via trade.
I'm sure money was a factor. Maybe Jack is considering L-Rod as his short term SS gamble. Maybe Jack promised him a shot at being a full time starting SS in order to get him. If L-Rod had indeed jumped a plateau then that will end up looking like a good move.
Does no one remember that this chump is 30 years old? IKs there any evidence that L-Rod did anything unusual last year other than get lucky on some doubles becoming dingers? Not a drop. He's a 30 year old never-was...and he's Z's brilliant gamble? GREAT!!!!
If money is an issue for Nishioka...then we might as well just quit right now and fold the team...because we're screwed if we can't even afford to pay for league average production at a skill position.
"Right now the Mariners need to get MUCH better and they will probably need to do that via trade."
Sure, but who is really interesting for other clubs to obtain what the M's need via trade ? I'm afraid the usual names, Ackley, Smoak, Pineda. And so we'd be again in trouble, maybe for years to come. If there're really problems with payroll to upgrade roster there's only one option left, forget Upton and all that kind of stuff and going on with the farm system players.
Yeah... I agree it is not the high percentage play and it is disappointing. But if he pulls an Ibanez then he could be this year's Russle Branyan.
If he thought Nishioka was a good SS then he'd have to go get him. We need a SS and our minor league replacement option is at LEAST two years away. Could be 4 years, could be never.
We needed a SS and we passed on this one, which means either he thinks he can patch a couple of just-as-bad holes for the price of this one (where a terrible bat can still be a passable hitter) or he doesn't think this one is actually a shortstop.
Either way, I accept that SS will probably not be filled before ST with anyone not named Wilson.
Now I need to see what holes we will fill. If we go into next year with 4 giant holes in the lineup patched by has-beens or never-weres, then I'll be feeling what Matt's feeling now: betrayal.
I don't expect that - but Jack has a couple of months to disappoint me still, I guess. ;)
~G
...the WHOLE TEAM...hit WORSE...than WILLIE effing Bloomquist. When that happens...you OWE it to us to do something big to fix it. You OWE it to us to make changes. If Josh Wilson is our SS (Or Luis Rodriguez) in 2011 and there aren't three much better hitters at the other positions of need (LF, DH, C)...then Z has lost me forever.
Jack, that is most likely kills this or any other move for SS. Too bad, terrible move in hindsight and the 2 year deal to erase last years' hit stings now more than ever. I'm afraid of this off season.The team needs some pr moves, a big splash, and to be more competitive next season. All of that adds up to money, and the M's have a clear history in rebuild situations... the money goes down, not up.
really, we are on the verge of a perpetual rebuild situation here. Ive never agreed with saving all of our prospects, but would have liked to see a few more of them excel early in their careers, it would have made the other necessary moves more clear in hindsight. Some is luck, some is lack of superstar talent in the minors. Again, too bad. Adam Jones (who I was fully ready to trade for Bedard) turned out to be better than I thought, though well short of some well thought of wags locally would still be here with a faster start. Saunders pains me, I'm pretty sure he will be a fine player, 2 years later we have to look to upgrade his position. And so on. Tough to make these calls, can't be done SABERly cant reliably be done with scouting forecasts. Just one position player (Ackley) coming up and producing right away sells the base on the rebuild. Hope it happens
I think its really difficult to be successful by building solely through the farm system. You have to mix it up with saavy trade, FA pickups, minor league pickups, etc.
This is why Nishioka hurts so much. He was cheap, he was a long-term solution, and he filled a huge organizational hole. Hes no gaurantee, but that would have been a very low risk, medium-to-high reward type move.
Its hard to see what else is realistically out there at SS...signing a DH stop-gap for $4-5mil will likely only tick me off right now unless SS is already filled.
Well, when we do disagree it gets pretty noisy. :-)
Ya, the age for L-Rod is the downside here.. Middle infielders tend to age early anyways, so even if he hits his 90%, hes probably not a long-term solution.
Z needs to figure something out here. Is there a better or comparable long-term SS solution out there to Nishioka for around the same cost in either $s or prospects?
Jack Wilson has to be considered a sunk cost on a rebuilding team. Thats just wasting valuable time. We need someone with upside at that position for a reasonable cost.
Bill Bavasi's desire to win, regardless of the strength of his club, squandered the best years of Felix Hernandez's club control.
His win now mentality kept the club from investing playing time into younger players, led to horrible trades and terrible contracts to mediocre players. After watching the Bavasi years, I am content to wait for this team to turn around.
I hate to say this, but barring a miracle the M's will not win the division this year. They were a team that Pythag'ed 59-103 WITH 103 innings of Cliff Lee at a 2.34 ERA and 249.2 IP of Felix at a 2.27 ERA. The rest of the rotation was above average despite being a generic pitch to contact rotation. Even David Pauley had decent results. I think the offensive regression will be offset by the pitching staff's regression.
Even if Nishioka is who you think he is, failing to add him won't cost us a pennent this year.
To the subject at hand, I think we can agree that our situation at SS is not ideal, but we are paying Jack Wilson 6 million dollars to be that guy and if he can stay healthy I expect him to provide more value than a replacement player. Dustin Ackley might not be ready on opening day but by June 1 he will be the teams starting 2B because he was the 2nd pick in the draft. These major league AB's are critical to his development. Chone Figgins could also man the MI positions on a temp. basis and will probably settle in at 3rd base. Again, this is not an ideal situation, but they are paying him good money and he's not terrible so you shouldn't bench him unless you have a clear upgrade.
I have heard Nishioka's bat and arm questioned by scouts and they have serious doubts that he will be able to stick at SS. Maybe you agree with this and maybe you don't. But, if I am the Mariners GM and I ask my scouts if they think he can handle the leather well enough to stick at the position in the majors and they aren't 110% convinced that he is a significant upgrade I pass on him. The Twin's scouting department is top notch and if they say he's a 2B, I'm inclined to believe them.
To the subject at hand, I think we can agree that our situation at SS is not ideal, but we are paying Jack Wilson 6 million dollars to be that guy and if he can stay healthy I expect him to provide more value than a replacement player. Dustin Ackley might not be ready on opening day but by June 1 he will be the teams starting 2B because he was the 2nd pick in the draft. These major league AB's are critical to his development. Chone Figgins could also man the MI positions on a temp. basis and will probably settle in at 3rd base. Again, this is not an ideal situation, but they are paying him good money and he's not terrible so you shouldn't bench him unless you have a clear upgrade.
I have heard Nishioka's bat and arm questioned by scouts and they have serious doubts that he will be able to stick at SS. Maybe you agree with this and maybe you don't. But, if I am the Mariners GM and I ask my scouts if they think he can handle the leather well enough to stick at the position in the majors and they aren't 110% convinced that he is a significant upgrade I pass on him. The Twin's scouting department is top notch and if they say he's a 2B, I'm inclined to believe them.
I think this community has consistantly over stated the impact of Japanese baseball players. Dice-K's, Kiroda's, Igawa's, Johjima's and Iwanura's reputations far outweighed what they were able to deliever on the field. This doesn't make them lousy ball players but they haven't been the bargains many have thought them to be. I realize that Ichiro, a player with a historically unique skill set, was thought by some to be a fringe player. I think scouts would have made a similar error if he had white skin.
I'll defer to Jack Z on this on and see what the rest of the offseason has to offer.
Joh and Kuroda delivered just around as expected. Igawa was a bust, and changed my view on poor command types transfering over (you can also add K.Matsui to that group_. Matsuzaka has just declined. I think its a physical issue with him.
You're going to have hits and misses, whether already MLB-proven, NPB, or prospect. The attrition rate in baseball is crazy. Chone Figgin and Jose Lopez are good examples
Heck, two of the biggest FAs last year were John Lackey and Jason Bay. They were signed to be star players, were proven at the MLB level, and have regressed to mediocrity overnight.
Its all guess-work. I think he could play an above-average SS since he is elite at that position in the NPB and has a very solid overall skillset, but he isn't proven yet. The arm is the exact reason he went so cheap IMO (and possibly undervalued). That, and the lack of power.
The uncertainty though, is the reason there was profit potential. If Nishioka pans out, hes a solution for several years. I sure hope we don't end up using that money on a Matsui/Branyan DH stop gap.
I would agree that Seattle fans, due to early success and exposure, are more inclined to believe that Japanese players will translate. Doesn't always happen that way. I know little of this latest batch, though the bail out swing rings a bell (Ichiro). My beef is with Jack Wilson's contract, and what that has done to payroll this season. We now have to seemingly replace him while still paying him, and that can not be seen as anything but a lousy decision within the org.
I think both Joh and Kuroda hit the low end of their DOV projections. Again, I think this community (myself included) felt they would do more.
So I remain a little skeptical when I hear about a player who is going to set the world on fire coming from Japan. I also think a healthy Jack Wilson is a decent option at SS. Both of these opinions lead me to believe that the money would be better spent elsewhere.
I agree that uncertainty leads to profit potential but the Mariners are positioned very poorly to take advantage of this situation. They desperately need some thump in their order and I think we can all agree that Nishioka is not going to provide much of that. If the Mariners were coming off an 81 win season and they were trying to win the pennent next year they should do it. But we have 2-3 years before we will be positioned to contend which adds more risk to the equation for a team like the Mariners than it does for a team like the Twins (who will be in a position to repeat as division champs).
We have had too many hitters the past few years who are unable to hurt you even if they get their pitch. I feel better about Ackley and Smoak getting pitches to hit if they are followed by Branyan. In some ways it is actually refreshing to see the Mariners FINALLY go into rebuilding mode after spending much of the last six years DENYING the need to REBUILD.
Priority #1 should be to build around a core of Felix, Smoak, Ackley and Pineda. They need to have the pieces in place to win the division when these guys get ready. Guti and Ichiro could still be important pieces to this puzzle, while Moore and Saunders need the opportunity to sink or swim.
I couldn't agree more with this. The focus on modern stats has lost power hitting as a goal. I've said before and have yet to been refuted that while OBP may be a more integral part of scoring runs, that only happens in an environment where that skill exists THROUGHOUT the lineup. Last years team never had a chance, because there were too many holes from this perspective at the outset. The saber-set seems to gloss over this point. Thus, the most glaring weakness of this team is in the power dept. and it must be fixed. Doc has lobbied for a Dunn like player for years, now is the time. Except now, we need two of them.
Kuroda's MLB numbers are better than his NPB numbers. How did he not meet expectations? If anything, I am suprised at how well Kuroda's skillset translated. Hes been a top 10 NL starter when healthy over the past three years.
Joh hit very early on in a park terrible for his skillset and then hit age decline. It happens. Joh pretty much did what I thought he would (well above-average C in his first two years), though he aged earlier than expected.
I hear this a lot, but we were also comfortably last in OBP last season as well. We need to get better everywhere and the focus needs to be beyond 2011.
Our SSs had a 570 OPS last season.
Getting a SS who can OPS in the low 700s and play average or better defense, would be like swapping Milton Bradley for Joey Votto.
MLB SSs hit for a 669 OPS last season.
More than that though is the big picture. You look at the big holes on this team beyond '11 and I see SS definetly, probably C, maybe LF. Nishioka was a shot at fixing SS for a cheap price, so we'll see if Z has something up his sleeves thats even better.
Dh is a hole too, but those are so easy to fit with cheap stop-gap vets that its not even worth worrying about. The Ms have been uniquely incompetent in filling that spot the last several years and its led fans into thinking that its a hard-to-fill premium position.
That would be an interesting case-study actually. Are the '04-'10 Ms the worst 5+ year stretch at the DH position in baseball history? I'm guessing they probably are by a good margin.
You may hear my argument a lot against OBP as the ultimate skill, but my question to you is what would you do about it? The saberistas have decided that it rules the roost, most on line discussion gives it credence, but one for one, is OBP more valuable than power? Second, is OBP more valuable than power in our lineup? My thoughts are no, to both and we need to find some extra base hitters at any position possible.
The perfect fit would be a high OBP together with a high SLG of course. I think OBP alone is too much overrated. Just a point on that regard, have you ever thought that good all-round hitters often have a high OBP because pitchers fear their power and throw them around ? In other words I'd say OBP without power has very limited meaning - except for some very very special leadoff hitters like Ichiro.
We need both OBP and SLG. We were last in both categories last season.
As to the OBP/SLG debate, I'm not strongly on either side. Run matrixes seem to conclude that OBP is slightly more valuable, but the bottom line is you need both.
Definitely yes. What I was meaning is that OBP is often a mere consequence for good complete hitters. Slap hitters and walk seekers - except they hit .350 - are not a great deal to win games IMO. The fact we were the worst team in both categories should say enough how long and hard is our way to improve.
is a huuuuge problem. It's not one that can be fixed easily. And I agree, upgrading SS from the 65ish OPS+ from last year to 95 or so is just as good as bumping LF from the 86 that Saunders posted to 116 from a decent contributor (whose name may or may not still be Saunders). 30 points is 30 points.
Still, Willie Bloomquist's 2010 line would have been good for 15th among 22 qualified bats at the SS position, and his 85 OPS+ would be a 20 point increase by itself. I could survive with Willie at SS. We can't survive with him in LF, and DH, 3B, 2B, or CF.
And should we be able to FIND a Willie Bloomquist type to play SS? Spending our cash to upgrade the MIF and trying to scrapheap the power positions is what we did last year with Chone, and that turned out brutally.
I can see going in a different direction. We just NEED to get the other hitters right. I'm reserving judgment Matt. This would have been a good patch on one position, but we need a lot. I want to see the whole plan before I get up in arms.
Still, the arms are ready to go up...
~G