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Should have identified myself in the original post, I guess. moethedog
Kotchman being Kotchman
OK. I was wrong (so far) on Tui. He still needs to be semi-regular, but I will admit he hasn't made it impossible for W to keep him off the field. 400 PA's was my goal for him. I'll stick by it. I think it may not happen. Drats!
But....Despite much early hype from some corners, we Kotchman-doubters weren't quite wrong to this point. Casey has been Casey.
He's hitting right at his career average (.264/.269) and his OBP is within a hair of his career number (.333/.337), as well. His BABIP is a touch low, but basically on track, too (.258/.276). His LD's are up a bit (ergo the doubles mentioned below) and his GB% is down. FB's are about normal as are his walks and K's.
The only thing preventing him from being plain old C. Kotchman, below average MLB 1B, is that he is on an unstainable two-bagger rate. His current pace would put him north of 50 doubles. That ain't happening. When that returns to earth...his big ISO (.250 vs career .141) will norm out as well. Casey will be Casey.
Interestingly, according to UZR/150, he's a lousy fielder right now. With a number of -5.6.
I'm not quite buying that over a season, of course. But..all the same..Added all togehter, We're not in possession of a new and improved Casey Kotchman. As the doubles level out, I suspect he'll be somewhat of a drag on an offense that won't need another one.
What bums me is that his upside is basically a 100 OPS season. Carp is better than that. Cheaper, too. Two seasons of Kotchman will be enough. More than enough, I suspect. Heck, Ackley will have a better upside than 100 OPS next year.
So, in the spirit of Doc, who came clean on his Washburn error, I'll throw my scorecard out there.
1. Tui: I love him, stated so very early. So far I'll give myself a D-! Reason's above.
2. Kotchman: I'm stuck with him and I never did like it. But I'll give myself a D+ here because of the doubles I didn't see coming. I was a bit wrong. But that D+ will soon be a B+ as he becomes what he has always been.
3. Doogie Fister: Liked him early. Still do. On the black, on the black, on the black, on the black sounds something like G. Maddux. Does he have a career of this? Don't know. Does he have 5 months of it (or something close)? I suspect so. Grade is an A
4. Mike Saunders: Hated him and his upside last year, even. A+. 'Nuff said.
5. Mike Carp: Stated I liked his upside a lot more than CK's. Still do. But that's a C-, so far.
6. Jose Lopez: Described him as a "hacking hack of a hack." But one with some pop and one who was an underrated fielder. You can win with a guy like that, and he is cheap. Still like him for all those reasons. B+
I'm not sure I addressed many more guys that that, other than Ichiro, Guti and Felix...and we all knew what we had there.
So, I'm not quite on the honor role. Drats. How did you do?
Comments
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My fave part of the old LABR drafts was the part where each roto owner would give his best-and-worst picks. Just love that stuff. After all, if the owners are even halfway objective, who knows better than they do?
My own grades track with yours to some extent bro'...
.............
If Kotchman's UZR is below average, it's an illustration of how circumstance (not the fielder's own skill) can drive the stat. Kotchman is a wonderful first baseman.
Granted, UZR hyperfans will protest "small sample" (sic) :- ) but the fact remains that for this one month's results, the stats lied. It's harder for a K/BB stat to "lie"....
Anyway, the usual qualifier. UZR is the place to start on D-stats, but you apply a pretty low coefficient of confidence when using it IMHO.
............
*thanks for the kind words Moe, but we redacted 'em for ya.
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Players I liked that the blogosphere didn't:
Doug Fister (results coming in on my side at the moment)
Milton Bradley (results not so great early, but improving and will be on my side shortly)
Mike Sweeney (FAIL...*sigh*)
Gutierrez (the blog-o-sphere loved his glove...but wasn't high on the bat like I was...I got the MODE of his conversion wrong, but was dead right on his becoming an impact bat...and I still believe that)
Figgins: walks don't slump. When you can go 3 for 37 and still get on base during that span at a .286 clip, you've got value. :) Figgins is going to be a tremendous impact player and the doubters apparnetly didn't know how to read a walk rate trend.
Brandon League (eeh...not pitching real well right now...needs to stop nibbling and be aggressive in the zone...let the sink on his fastball do the work)
Matt Tui as SUPERSUB (FAIL...he still looks overmatched in the big leagues despite monster confidence and poise)
Adam Moore (MEGA-FAIL! I projected Moore to hit like Kurt Suzuki. Right now, he's hitting like MAC Suzuki.)
Rob Johnson (Aces, baby! His current 101 OPS is a little weird looking in how it's made...but walks don't slump and Rob Johnson is having lots of pro-quality ABs and getting on base (for a catcher)...I think the impact bat is coming along nicely)
Jarrod Washburn: (FAIL...we never needed to waste money on him...I panicked for no good reason)
Kanekoa Texeira: (FAIL...oy...not doing so hot right now...wild as heck and rapidly being de-emphasized in bullpen plans)
Players I liked a lot less than the blogosphere:
Casey Kotchman: (so far so good for Kotchman fans...I still think he's not going to morph into Lyle Overbay any time soon unless the doubles rate is up because he really is going ot keep hitting flyballs at his current clip)
Luke French: (I still hate Luke French...but he's PWNing AAA right now...so I may be wrong)
Eric Byrnes: (yep...my projection was fairly average, so I wasn't exactly RIGHT...but I was right that Langerhans would probably have been the more useful pick between Byrnes and Langerhans, if only fo the defensive upgrade since neither of them can hit)
David Aardsma (hm...seems like I was way off...I had him losing the closer's gig in June or so...oops)
Jason Vargas (wrong again...I thought he was a meatball...albeit better than Snell...and he has been better than Snell)
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Thanks for the redaction. I needed the help.
SABR Matt....I forgot all about M. Bradley! How could I do that?
I was very clear....I expected him to be Bad News in the clubhouse. So far, sounds like I was wrong. But I'm giving myself an Incomplete here, rather than a letter grade. I still expect it to happen. Leopards and spots, you know. If we get into July and it still hasn't occured, then I'll post a low grade for me. Right now he's a mixed bag. Can't hit a lick, but walks .100+. Walks don't slum, you're correct. But you must factor in the seeming rebirth of Carlos Silva. Right now (early, very early) his sub 2.00 ERA and ungodly WHIP seems like the better $12M investment, even when MB has been a good citizen.
No grade on this one until much later.
moe
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Hmm, since we're doing report cards, how would I grade myself?
Bradley - (C-): predicted an .890 OPS, and personal best in PAs. He's got a long way to go. (My first instinct was only .840 - and I'm getting nervous that my first instinct was the right one).
Figgins - (C-): harped on him being a poor hitter righty - and suggested Tui needed to steal some of those PAs. His splits in 2010 are way oppositie his career numbers. Oh, well. My line was: .290/.375/.390 - (.765).
Kotchman - (B+): I suggested a .300/.380/.460 line is where Kotchman could land (upside). But my MC guess was: .293/.355/.444 (.799). My divergence from the rest of the blog-o-sphere focuses on the fact CK is only 27 this year - so basing production primarily on "career" output is a suspect methodology. (Gutz had a .717 career OPS upon arrival in Seattle). I'm focusing on the 'good Kotch' periods (pre-trade), where his BA range goes from .282 to .296. I agree with Doc that he's not going to sustain a 240 ISO. But, Kotch has ALREADY posted a 170 ISO previously - and hit 37 doubles in a season. Yes, it will take a peak season for Kotch to post an .840. Of course, the majority of players post their peak seasons at age 27 ... so, I'm sticking by my belief that Kotch will end up right around the .800 mark, though I'm thinking if he misses, he misses above the .800 level. Being the 2nd best hitter on the team thus far certainly shouldn't cost me marks today.
Rob Johnson -- A+: I zeroed in on Johnson making the proper adjustments to major league pitching last summer. Didn't realize his late season swoon was injury related until after the season. While I was hoping Moore would press him, cannot say I'm surprised that RJ is holding his own, (albeit with a bizarro line with a .721 OPS off a .194 average). My key stat? When he blossomed and showed a 1:1 eye ratio in the middle of '09. He's still learning - so some feast and famine will occur -- but he could turn out to be a .750 great-call catcher down the line. My MC project forecast was .270/.340/.400.
Adam Moore - (C-): Well, I said he'd have growing pains - and pegged my MC forecast at: .255/.310/.385 (.695). He's failing across the board and doing it with a horrid 1:10 BB/K split. Is he really this bad? I don't think so -- but I'm also thinking he may need some time in Tacoma to hit the rest button.
Jack Wilson - (B+): .270/.315/.385 (.700) -- he's flirted with .700 already, but the more I see the more I think he'll fall a little short (.675-ish).
Griffey: A-: .211/.303/.377 (.680) -- The disappointment is realizing I was too optimistic. I said he's done -- that his BABIP was going to be horrid. Instead, both his eye and ISO have gone in the toilet. Actually, since they continue to hand him PAs, a couple of gophers and the ISO bounces. But, you can't win with a .680 DH -- much less a .538 DH, (which is where he's at today).
Jose Lopez - (D+) - .280/.311/.489/ (.800) -- I thought he'd come in pouding away just like he did during the final four months of 2009. I can only hope the move to 3B has disturbed his concentration on his hitting. I said his upside for doubles was 60. He's got 3 thus far. He'll certainly bounce back ... but his aggregate for 2008 and 2009 (.765-ish) looks to be where Lopez is and where he'll stay -- which is really annoying, since he's only 26 -- and this is when he's supposed to be putting it all together.
Gutz -- (C-): .272/.323/.454 (.777). He's killing it at the moment. But, his BABIP-driven tour of the .900 OPS level ain't gonna last. If he reduces his slump periods, he should wind up over .800 for the year, (which is a poor grade I'd gladly take).
Ichiro -- (A): .330/.370/.420 - 37-SB -- His power has vanished again, (he's running a 66 ISO at the moment). But, that should improve. The SB contest between Figgy and Ichiro should be interesting to watch.
On the pitching side - I was pro-Vargas (B+), anti-Fister (F), and hesitant to annoint either Kelley (C-) or League (B+) as automatic successes. (League only has 5 Ks in 11 innings - which is NOT what was expected - even though his control and results have been excellent thus far).
I was NOT on the "Get Washed" train, (A) - mostly because the Ms have Soooo many AAAA arms freely available. I figured given the sheer volume, (Snell, RRS, Vargas, Fister, Olson, French, Baldwin, Pauley), that getting Wash would be unnecessary given the likely Big 3 lineup of Felix, Lee and Bedard that was looking to be happening by late May. My guess that having April to sift through the choices would be helpful appears to have worked out.
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"it's an illustration of how circumstance (not the fielder's own skill) can drive the stat."
Isn't that sort of how a fluky BABIP (circumstance (not the [batter's] own skill)) can drive stats like BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, wOBA and all of our other more refined offensive stats?
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1. People are aware of BABIP fluctuations, whereas they rip GM's new earholes for treating UZR fluctuations with discretion
2. UZR is analogous to ERA, xFIP, RC/27 or OPS+, not to AVG (it's a summary stat)
3. OPS+ doesn't go from 130 to 50 to 130 to 50 for any given player (a 130 OPS+ yearlong *always* means something important)
4. OPS+ and ERA+ don't routinely do an infarction-EKG every time a player switches teams
....................
I like UZR. I just don't think Pat Gillick should have been pilloried for judging it to be misleading on Raul Ibanez. :- )
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Kotchman's OPS is now 746.
I wish baseball people wouldn't BS us about mechanical changes unless there was something substancial there.
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Yes, Kotchman's OPS is down to .746 -- and yet, he remains the 2nd best hitter on the team. But, a month in -- as good a time as any to take a check on the 'luck' factor. Who appears to be benefitting (or getting hurt), by luck? If you sort the roster by BABIP, what do we see?
Gutz - .403 -- (.325 for career -- he's been VERY hot)
Ichiro - .344 - (.357 for career - about normal)
Tui -- .333 - (.182 avg with .333 BABIP is baaaaad news)
Bradley - .302 - (.322 career - still a bit of upside)
LEAGUE AVG - .292
J.Wilson - .288 - (.291 career - right on target)
Figgins - .281 - (.341 career -- LOTS of ground to make up)
Griffey - .277 - (.288 for career - but loss of eye and power suggests he's actually been lucky).
Lopez - .261 - (.284 for career - slow start - but only had a .270 in 2009. He's all messed up at the moment.)
Moore - .241 - (normal rookie struggles - showing signs of adjusting - .705 OPS in last 14 days - which is only 19 PAs - but K/BB is the concern)
Kotchman - .225 - (.274 for career -- Wow! Second best hitter on the team while losing 50 points of luck! Honestly, I'm even MORE convinced he's gonna hit .800 or better.)
Sweeney - .217 - (.301 for career and .291 in 2009. Lack of PT is an issue, but his eye has been fine. HERE is the real hard-luck bat for the Ms.)
Johnson - .200 - (had a .269 BABIP in 2009. Though his OPS has dropped to .673 - his 11/11 eye ratio is generating 200 point of patience -- but no reason to believe his average won't be jumping back up to the .250 area in the near future.)
Byrnes - .130 - (.279 career BABIP says one thing. The .226 and .227 he posted in '08 and '09 suggest he was already suffering from Richie Sexson disease and was NOT a smart pickup.)
While Johnson and Kotchman have been hurt by the BABIP gods - the primary hitting issues I see with the roster can be most easily identified when looking at the BB/K numbers:
Wilson - 1:13
Moore - 2:11
Tui --- 0:10
Lopez - 4:15
While none of these guys should walk a ton - each are to varying degrees - posting production-killing eye ratios. In general terms - it becomes nearly impossible to maintain decent MLB production once an eye ratio goes beyond 3. Exceed 3 Ks per walk, and pretty much, you're doomed as an MLB hitter.
The young guys - Tui and Moore - well, this is standard adjustment time. Early struggles aren't uncommon - and adjustments can be made. Lopez has lived near that 3:1 danger zone his entire career. It's not unreasonable to expect this is just a normal slump and the HR hitting Lopez will return soon.
The big danger zone I see is Wilson. For his career, he's run about 1:2. His totals for lifetime are 252 walks and 546 Ks. His age, coupled with barely good enough offensive production are a dangerous combo. Someone with "just" enough skill to hang on posting 80 OPS+ figures (thanks to his great glove), is precisely the kind of guy who could see his offensive skills slip just enough to go from an 80 OPS+ bat to a 60 OPS+ overnight.
Figgins, Lopez, Wilson -- plus DH and Catcher. That's FIVE positions that could produce below a 90 OPS+ this season without any one of the bunch being a major surprise. Figgins posted an 82 in 2008.
And the club currently doesn't have ANYONE on the bench you could be confident in beating 80.
If Wilson is the ONLY sub-80 bat, any .800 hitter can make up for him. But, the current roster has a half dozen holes in it. Hopefully, Moore and Lopez and Figgins come around. But Figgins is the only one of the batting holes who can be viewed as being particularly unlucky thus far.