Good post, Doc.
1. You know I've been all over the Tui at 1B (and and LF and at SS) bandwagon for more than a month now. 400 AB's is surely something to root for. 15+ taters is a pretty safe bet with those AB's. Eventually Kotchman loses favor, unless he hits .300 and OBP's .360+. But I think you're right, he's the house dog right now becasue of what they spent to get him...and the fact that they passed others up. Until then.....get him the Byrnes AB's and spell Wilson once a week (or twice). Tui showed he wasn't too out of place at the other 3 IF positions. He can handle 1B, easy peasy, lemon squeezy.
2. When Ichiro and Figgins get on track (not that they are that far off it right now) then the pop in the Guti, Lopez, Bradley, Tui (and Sweeney) bats is enough. Get both of your top two guys in the .370-.390+ OBP....the other bats will be just fine.
3. Why do I feel that the Kotchman numbers will be closer to where he is now than .300/.360
4. Get Sweeney in the game. Either he can hit or he can't. Let's find out now.
5. Bynes brings a certain jack-rabbit type energy...but I can't see any evidence that there remains in his bats something of his 2007 season....or anything close to it.
6. Felix will be Felix. All season. Lee will soon be Lee. But if Fister has a lot more of that in him...and Bedard can get 20+ starts....This team gets interesting. But it will still need to score runs. Ergo, Tui.
7. "Felix and Fister and pray for a blister" has a nice poetic verve to it. Not quite Grantland Rice stuff, of course, but interesting all the same.
Q. Nice to step back from the ledge, isn't it?
A. SSI is where you get your Thai "contrarian" fan fare. At 2-6, we didn't feel a lot different than we would have if 6-2.
D-O-V seeks points of difference that are unreported elsewhere, for no other reason than it can make for a bit of a fresher discussion. :- ) For example, when Milton Bradley was 2-for-21 or whatever. He was actually showing things that few other hitters are capable of showing...
At 4-6, all of a sudden the M's find themselves packed in a 2-game race, with Felix locked-and-loaded and Lee back in a turn or two. Feels great.
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Q. So what's the problemo? Sounds like a zig coming against the zag of good cheer.
A. Home runs and slugging.
Look at the 2009 team totals - go to 2009 Fangraphs > Teams > Batters > Standard > sort by HR. Give a feel for the fact that 160 homers a year is pretty much necessary. You could go down to 120-130 if other things heavily compensated.
The M's are on pace for 64 homers, and am not sure that power isn't going to be an epic problem.
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Q. The M's have faced some tough pitching.
A. True dat. The A's may run a 120 ERA+. Give the M's two weeks against weaker pitching and the numbers will correct some.
But! you have to be able to hit good pitching. Review these 2010 totals: Fangraphs > Teams > Batters > Advanced > sort by SLG. Check out that table.
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Q. A .312 SLG? Even .412 would be dubious.
A. And it's easy to imagine this ballclub facing a serious power outage going forward:
- They got rid of Branyan for Casey Kotchman, who hit 7 homers last year.
- They got rid of Beltre for Chone Figgins.
- Griffey and Sweeney are older.
- Jose Lopez might not poke 25 homers just barely over the scoreboard this year.
- The collateral damage from 2009 could fall off.
Check 2009 Fangraphs > Individual Teams > Mariners > Standard > sort by HR ...take Branyan and Griffey out, ratchet down Lopez and Ichiro, and where are you?
I don't have a hard time visualizing the M's with these HR hitters in 2010:
- Bradley: 27 in three-quarters of a season
- Lopez: 15-20
- Gutierrez: 15-20
- That's it
It's not a death sentence, but it's the ballclub's biggest problem -- lack of homers. It's just too hard to score if you're never getting any cripples.
Geoff Baker preached all spring. It was an unsophisticated argument: where is the power? And the first 10 games, the evidence is coming in heavily on his side.
We saberdudes have a tendency to think, well, it isn't HR's that matter any more. It's WAR. But there are a lot of "givens" behind those typical WAR's, that we overlook. One of them being that a good ballclub slugs over .400...
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Q. Dr's R/X?
A. First off, Tuiasosopo at 1B for Kotchman. A lot. And Tui for Jack Wilson some: Wilson's running a 26 OPS+. This dude may not be able to hit whatsoever in the AL. Matt Tuiasosopo is putting nice AB's on some very good pitchers. The M's may be forced into giving him 400+ AB's and hoping for 20+ homers.
Wok was almost apologetic about giving Kotchman a single day off against a 94 lefty. I wonder if it's a political thing, that Kotchman is Zduriencik's baby?
............
Second off, whichever benchies promise power against that day's pitcher.
Third off, a role player who hits HR's if he comes available, a Johnny Gomes type.
Fourth off, the Big Trade as soon as possible. It's more important than we've been giving it credit for being.
.............
It's possible that the collateral damage will start kicking in, against lesser pitching than Oakland's. But tell me you can't see some serious power deficiency if things break wrong...
Not saying that the M's can't win. Just that they have One Big Problem to think about. Homers. This club is fine on every front except that one.
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BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
I've been thinking about the absence of HR's as well. As we watch the M's scatter 9-11 hits and scrap together a coupla three runs as a result, you start to realize what the HR does for you.
One inning recently, we get a Lopez leadoff single, then another hit in the inning. Before you know it, there are two outs and runners on 1st and 2nd. Even if the guy at the plate in that situation gets a hit, you're looking at a strong possibility that you've got the bases loaded with no runs in. Ichiro, Figgins, Wilson, Johnson, Kotchman, are all prone to that kind of AB.
The M's are going to stretch the statistics to the max in this regard. They can get 3 hits in an inning and still not score.
You're absolutely right Doc, we need power, and we need it bad.
Gotta agree Doc.
If the Ms want to challenge the Rangers, they'll need upgrades at 1B and DH. Maybe SP too depending on Bedard.
Common Sense is a rare commodity today. Thanks for reminding me that it is not yet extinct! I love pitching and appreciate good defense. But it sure helps to score too!!!
It's kind of like watching a basketball game, in which one team has a fast break and the other doesn't...
Good posts amigos ...
What was weirdest about the Tui/Kotchman thing, was listening to Wok justify a day off for Kotchman, against a LHP...
Junior hasn't had a chance yet this year, but supposing that you did want to make a change. Any idea how that's done?
Jack Cust is available for nothing. He'd be a good platoon DH with Bradley. Bradley can platoon with Byrnes in LF.
1B is harder..IMO you should have just signed Branyan instead of Kotchman. That said, maybe a trade option pops up.. Carlos Pena or Lance Berkman at the deadline if we're still within striking distance.
2009 Branyan would definitely be ideal, yeah. But Branyan has yet to play a game in 2010... Jack Z. is looking pretty presceint in that regard.
Berkman is interesting, but he's also coming off injury... Love the idea of Pena, but I'm worried Z is too personally invested in Kotchman to make a change at 1B unless it gets real ugly.
Be afraid. Be very afraid.
...............
Raise your hand if you're already running scared of Kotch's ability to GIDP in huge situations...
The discussion of team total HRs is a valid one. But, I personally find the hammering on Kotchman as being a serious case of "ignore reality" and harp on what I'm thinking.
Kotchman happens to be one of only three players to hit a HR so far. He has 3 XBHs ties him with Gutz, (on fire), Bradley and Chone.
Yes, losing Branyan hurts. 1B accounted for 36 HRs in 2009. But, LF, SS and 3B *EACH* produced only 10. That includes starters and replacements. Of course, April tends to be a low-offense month for all of baseball. So, how did Seattle do in 2009? They totaled 15 HRs in the month of April. Their best months? August (34) and September (31). Hmmm, wasn't Branyan that when Branyan was on the DL?
Has EVERYONE forgotten that Branyan's career high in HRs before 2009 was 24? It seems everyone wants Branyan back - who did something he had never done before in his entire carreer - yet, Kotchman is viewed as if he's the carrier of Richie Sexson Leprosy.
Now, I am not suggesting that Kotchman has a shot at hitting 30 HRs. He doesn't. But, cherry-picking the 7 HRs he got in 2009 is (IMO), an attempt to simply support a pre-conceived conclusion. I could just as easiliy point out that in 2009 Kotchman had 1 HR in 39 games with Boston - and he has 1 HR in 9 games with Seattle. I could point out that Kotchman is currently carrying a 180 ISO, which is pretty much the same as he had in his career .840 OPS season.
I think what irks me most is that in 2009 Seattle was deadlast in OBP. They were 13th in slugging. The club went out and did a MAJOR overhaul on its OBP problems. Every decent sabremetrician understands that OBP is more valuable run-wise than slugging. Yet, two weeks into the season, we're already hammering the power shortage? I view that as inherently unfair.
I also find it unfair to continue to harp on Kotchman when Ichiro, Sweeney and Griffey are all carrying OPS numbers under .600. By OPS, Kotchman is the 4th best Ms hitter thus far, putting him ahead of Bradley. Lopez has had a couple of solid games - so people are breathing a sigh of relief. Well, Lopez is currently still 86 points of OPS behind Kotchman.
I think in the end, Kotchman will get his dozen HRs, (maybe even scare 20). I think guys like Rob Johnson and Adam Moore will increase the power numbers from catcher.
And if there is one spot in the lineup that is in the most danger of being a true danger to the club - it is the DH spot. Based on '09, if you aren't producing for 50 games, you're replaced. But, if Griffey isn't hitting after 50 games, I really don't know what solution the club will have.
Has Branyan played yet this season? Fangraphs has nothing listed for him, I'm assuming he's still lame. I thought the muscle was sexy, too. But, sometimes, if u love someone you have to let them go.
Kotchman plays the position we need the power from. When we decided to bring Griffey back for another year as a DH, we knew we were gonna need more power from 1B.
Kotchman cannot provide it. He can have a good glove. He can be a good guy. But somebody has to drive in the runs. It won't be Ichiro, Figgins has no power. Sweeney's not gonna do it. We have one guy on this team who might hit for power with some OBP, and that's Bradley - and he's a doubles-power guy more than a HR-power guy. He might give you Mike Cameron power, but he's not likely to give you Jay Buhner power. Lopez and F-Gut are both toss-ups on the power scale, though they'll try to do their part - you just don't want your non-Boone 2B and your non-Griffey CF being the power cogs in your offensive machine.
So in that sense, since first base is the only downgraded position from a power perspective it makes perfect sense to focus there. We had 31 HRs, and now we might get half that if we're lucky.
But do the OBP upgrades make up for it?
Case study for Sandy's side:
Mariners:
2001 (116-46) - .288 BA (1), .360 OBP (1), .445 SLG (4)
2002 (93-69) - .275 BA (3), .350 OBP (2), .419 SLG (9)
2003 (93-69) - .271 BA (5), .344 OBP (4), .410 SLG (10)
2004 (63-99) - .270 BA (6), .331 OBP (10), .396 SLG (14)
BA dropped slowly over those seasons, slugging was bad the last three seasons, but only OBP crashed hard the last season (and took our slugging % with it to its final death). ERA+ went 118, 105, 115 and 96 those 4 seasons, so obviously pitching wasn't helping us much in our terrible 99 loss season.
But when the OBP was high and slugging was bottom-half of the league we won 93 games with a 105 ERA+. Same with a 115 ERA+ and a lower OBP.
If our pitching can be as good as we think it might be this year it's absolutely possible to win a lot of games with our improved OBP.
But I still think we need to replace Kotchman with a power hitter to make it happen this year. *grins* Do I want to give up Pineda and a bunch of other stuff to make it happen? Not really. But I think we will. A few more squandered pitching performances, and we will.
Or we'll trade Lee and try again next year with a new search for a MOTO bat.
~G
It isn't his result so far this April that has me predicting that he's going to hurt the ballclub in 2010.
However, his result so far does nothing to dissuade: he has a 90 OPS+ ... Safeco-adjusted already and gaining from that friendly park synergy that was imputed ...
And that 90 so far is precisely the same as his 2009 and 2008 numbers (90 and 93 OPS+ respectively). Notwithstanding it is the 730 days prior to 2010 that is my worry.
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Glad you're willing to give him a fair chance at proving his 2008 and 2009 performances to be nonrepresentative. I certainly would not be, but Zduriencik agrees with you.
It still hasn't sunk in with me, how decisive Zduriencik is.
We haven't yet seen him ... when something goes sideways.
Cap'n Ahab.
Branyan's early-season DL time absolutely vindicates the M's lowball offer to Branyan. Now the question is: why did they offer him a year?
My ire regarding Kotchman is that he's receiving the blame for the club getting Figgins. He's receiving blame for not resigning Branyan - (who has yet to play). He's getting blamed for the fact the club decided a DECADE ago that RF was going to be a perpetual power black hole.
Kotchman remains the focal point of 90% of the negativity about the offensive woes of a lineup that where Griffey has a .549 OPS, Ichiro has a .564, Lopez is at .610, and Bradley is at .644. God forbid someone actually complain about Byrnes (.350 OPS), Sweeney (.444) or Moore (.301).
Well, you could replace Kotchman with Babe Ruth - and it isn't going to make ANY difference, if you've got 5 guys hitting under .650. NO SINGLE HITTER can possibly make up for 6 guys doing nothing. The offense is NOT bad (thus far) because of Kotchman. They are bad so far because the entire club has two full-time players with an OPS+ above 100.
As for Kotchman's OPS+. His PRE-TRADE OPS+ figures the past three years:
119, 101, 103
Nobody's "blaming" Kotchman.
The question is: how do you get this ballclub off a 64-homer pace. Any thoughts on that?
Again, a hot Ichiro isn't hitting homers, nor is Chone or Jack Wilson. Jack is going to have a bad bat. Counting on rookie and 2nd-year catchers to fill offensive holes is not going to happen.
I don't blame Kotchman for the offense, but Bradley is gonna be in LF a bunch which leaves 1B and C as the two offensive upgrades for a power hitter. Griffey is not a moveable part. The FO isn't going to cut the legend. If he can't hit, he might retire, but we won't know that for a while. The ONLY roster spots with decent flexibility at this point are SS (because Wilson is injury-prone and Tui might not be atrocious there) and 1B.
I dislike Jack Wilson. I think he's gonna Cirillo his way out of here. But whatever replacement we get isn't gonna hit 30+ HRs, and Tui DEFINITELY won't in his first big league experience.
Kotchman occupies the roster spot that we can - and actually MIGHT - add power at. It's not his fault that he's blocking off the corner, but a 101-103 OPS+ from him would still be a hideous performance for the position. If he could post that 119, THEN we might have something. That makes him more like David Segui when he played here, and David Segui with his glove added to his bat was not a bad 1B to have.
But Casey won't post a 119. I don't think he'll post a 103 or a 101 either.
Would I prefer in a perfect world to be contemplating replacing miscellaneous aged vet Ben Kriffey's 95 2009 OPS+ with Jack Cust's 105? Yeah, that's an upgrade, though not as much as you might think looking at their ages, even if Jack is more likely to return to some former larger numbers than Ben Kriffey.
But we're NOT ditching Junior. So in the realm of available power upgrades, with KGJ at DH and MB in LF, Kotchman's it.
And he's BEEN it since the day we signed him. Hence the carping about it.
~G
I took it as an empty offer, one they knew Branyan would not take. It was a gesture of good will to give Branyan credibility, they made the announcement they weren't negotiating with him later on in the same vein. It's good business to have a good rep amongst the talent, doc.
How to get the team off a 64-HR pace? Easy.
Get HRs from those guys who are SUPPOSED to be hitting them. Fine - Kotchman is "supposed" to hit 10 HRs. He's on pace to exceed that. So *HE* is not a part of the HR drought. Who is?
Lopez - supposed to get 20 - has 0.
Gutierrez - supposed to get 20 - has 0.
Griffey/Sweeney - supposed to get 20 - have 0.
My objection to "we must replace Kotchman to get HRs" is that to date, Bradley is the only guy expected to supply 20 HRs that actually has *ANY*.
Okay - Gutz has 23 total bases - so the lack of HRs is very obviously not a problem for him personally. But Kotchman has 12 total bases, exact same number as Bradley. That's also effectively equal to Figgins and Ichiro (13 each). And Lopez, who just started hitting has 14 as of today.
The catching tandem has 9 total bases (and one of the 4 HRs).
Meanwhile, DH has combined for 8 total bases.
The offensive black holes thus far are Wilson (7 total bases) and DH.
Personally, I find the notion that we need to upgrade first base - because we have a DH slot posting a .467 OPS - as bad analysis - and an inherently flawed position.
SSI occasionally pats itself on the back for taking the contrarian position. Well, if everyone else believes that the DH slot is sacrosanct and untouchable - when every number to date says that DH is, in fact, the biggest problem -- well, I see that as SSI falling down on the job.
Moreover, the idea of replacing the .700 1B with a (in our dreams) .800 OPS 1B is VASTLY inferior to replacing the .500 OPS DH with a .750 OPS DH.
Okay - at SS, you can argue that a glove is making up for at least some of a .500 OPS. But, even there, you don't continue holding onto to Cedeno. You try and fix the thing that actually IS the problem.
But, if your DH slot is hitting WORSE than Cedeno - then I see little value in grousing about how the mediocre 1B needs to be axed.
If it's about clubhouse chemistry - than why is the ENTIRE CLUB slumping? If Griffey isn't magically making Bradley and Ichiro and (even Kotchman) hit .800 -- then what the heck good IS he doing?