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=== The Bad (for Texas) ===

I'll tell you what bothers me about the deal.

First roto league I ever played, everything was going great, and about July-August I had a chance to (pretty much) flummox one of the fish owners in the league.

Was going to deal Felix, Carp, Brendan Ryan and Brandon League for six guys I liked better -- a 14 WAR for 17 WAR type trade.  You know, become even farther ahead in the talent war.

I instant-messaged with an older guy who'd won a lot of leagues.  He said, "You're not really thinking of DOING that, are you."

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I mumbled huh, or something.

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He said, "It's not a move you make when you're in first place.  It's a move you make when you're in third."

He didn't have to say any more.  I grokked exactly what he was getting at.

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=== Game Theory Dept. ===

Let's say that you're in an important backgammon game, and the cube above is at 64 and you are in the lead.  In backgammon that means

• You have significantly fewer pips until all your stones are off the board
• You have a better position, eg, you control your 4-5-6 points with two stones
• You have equal or fewer stones in your first quarter of the board
• etc.

In backgammon, the underdog will then start taking risky shots with his back stones.  He'll jump out from his back quarter to hit a loose blot out on his 9 point, sending his opponent's stone back to the bar ... Normally, the problem is that the underdog's own loose blot is easy to hit, with interest.  The favorite will not only probably hit the loose blot back, but will get a 2nd stone onto the 9 point and things will be worse than ever...

Thing is, the favorite will have to leave another loose blot, to strike.

Pretty soon, both players have 3 loose blots all over the board, and the game is a crazy free-for-all ... where random chance wins.  The underdog wants this situation.  You get why?

GAME THEORY INSISTS that the underdog wants to muddy the water.  He wants things randomized.  The favorite wants nothing volatile to happen.  He wants everybody to fall asleep as his lead plays itself quietly into a win and a quiet walk-off-the-field handshake.

You ever see a baseball team, having the lead on the scoreboard, hit the other team's captain with a pitch to begin a beanball war?  Watch and you'll see that the leading team actually stays quiet, quiet in the audio sense.  Shhhhhhh.  This is a boring game, doesn't matter much anyway, go tooooo sleeeeeeep ...

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You'll hear baseball men say things like, "I don't think Darvish is a good fit for that team.  I think he'd have been a good fit for the Angels."  'net rats allow this to go right over their heads.  They do not understand the statement, and they certainly do not want to understand the statement.

If Yu Darvish had gone to the Angels, that is to Hollywood, and fit in behind Jered and Dan Haren, I'd have gotten a sinking feeling in my stomach.  

With Yu Darvish going to the Lone Star state to try to replace the Rangers' heart and soul, I have a light, airy, oxygenated feeling.  Dr. D has every confidence that the Rangers' Lone-Star groove is going to take a slow roll to the left.

I dunno if Darvish is a bad fit for the Rangers.  But I'd be very concerned that he was.  Just for example, Yu Darvish is now going to get a lot of money that many Rangers, having won the past two championships, will not get.

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=== Dr's Diagnosis ===

The champions just swapped out their Opening Day Starter for a complete unknown, on the field and off.  This is an extremely volatile move. It's the last thing that you want to do if you won the pennant the last two years running.

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