Seattle Sports Insider

YES! M's Own TV Deal

Posted by

12/20/11

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A scintillating report from Geoff Baker on the Mariners' financial future.

This is the kind of article that led sportswriters to swap in the job title for "journalist." Geoffy sat there in court for a week, took notes, and, as usual, put his finger on the key points at the crime scene.

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Baker would love to see the Mariners sell, preferably to somebody like Paul Allen who likes to win. Geoffy makes his case, too, that the Mariners have done things to "lean out," suggesting a sale to him.

Personally, will believe it when I see it. I believe the M's ownership committee is madly in love with owning the Mariners, and who's to blame them. If I were a billionaire,* that would be a great thing to do with my unnecessary money.

As Jered Weaver charmingly said, once you have $85 million, what really is the point of more? To blow it on a sports franchise, I guess.

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The big takeaway for Dr. D: that the Mariners are beautifully positioned to start their own sports network (in 2015).

I've heard Seattle's TV and radio market called the 3rd-best in America. There are no baseball rivals in Oregon. There are none in Idaho. There are none in Western Canada, or Alaska ... the Mariners might theoretically even broadcast TV games in (ulp) Asia!

Granted, the Angels are in a much bigger city. But they compete with the Dodgers, and with other baseball teams, and more to the point, sports in LA compete with other entertainment...

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The M's will calculate the dollars that a YES-type network will bring in. And then they will present it to Comcast, ROOT, whoever. And then they will get a deal that, it says here, exceeds the Angels' and Rangers'. Maybe by a lot.

=== Clocks, Dept. ===

The Mariners can jump ship after 2015. What is the real-world timing of that? Do the staredowns begin in June 2015?

No -- as with NFL deals for ESPN, ABC, CBS, etc., the threats and posturing start several years before the new contract. A TV carrier can re-write a deal in order to keep (say) the NFL from jumping to another network in two years.

The 2015 staredowns are, no doubt, beginning to simmer now. And if the Mariners want to credibly slap this YES-type team option down on ROOT's and Comcast's desks in 2012 or 2013, then ...

... they want a hot TV product as soon as possible.

What do you mean when you say "hot TV product"? You can take it from there.

BABVA,

Dr D

Comments

Question being

Question being, why didn't they do this in 2007 when their contract was last negotiated. It's not like this is a novel concept or anything. Either they did go this route, tried to force FSN's hand and blinked in the negotiation or they simply weren't comfortable with the concept of owning their own network and took the easy path.
The one thing about a negotiating strategy like this - you have to actually be willing to go through with your BATNA (best alternative to a negotiated agreement). If your BATNA in the FSN negotiation is that you will set up your own network, then you had better darn well better be willing and able to do that. And do it well. And FSN needs to darn well know it.

They did do this

They talked about starting a regional network, and the contract offer from FSN suddenly became much better. The Ms didn't want to go through the hassle of setting up said network.
It's not like Altitude in Colorado, where Kroenke owns the Pepsi Center, the Avs, the Nuggets and the Mammoth, so he just shows all his own teams on his own network. They'd have to get other, non-Ms programming in there and get it added to cable packages and satellite TV.
So they made the threat, Fox upped their offer, and the Ms took it.
This time around I would HOPE that they're looking at the boat-loads of money being made by the Angels and Rangers and figure out how much to hold the network hostage for, if they don't in fact start their own.
But they'd better start winning and attracting ratings again first. The next few years are gonna be crucial in those hostage negotiations, otherwise they might be better off not opting out and coming back with the hammer down in 2020. We'll see.
~G

No question

No question - you would need the Blazers involvement, minimum, to make it work. Maybe try and pull in Vancouver for the hockey and the Sounders for soccer. Plus a ton of ancillary programming. Filling a schedule for a TV channel 24/7/365 (or even 18/7/365) ain't easy. We do some of that and it's not something for amateur hour. If they want to opt out in 2015, they pretty much need to be laying the foundation now.

I'm rooting for the Ms to

I'm rooting for the Ms to actually act on their threat to build their own network. The Astros have their own network, the Angels are rolling in dough, and the Rangers have a huge TV deal themselves.
Joining the contract game itself may not be enough. The Ms need to dominate that realm. The potential for a network for the Mariners is even higher than that of the Angels (they have a huge market and get good ratings even when losing).
The Ms would need to figure out how to get other programming and it would require a huge investment, but its doable.

For that to happen...

...the Mariners would probably have to buy the rights to Sounders, Canucks, Blazers and Rainiers (minor league games actually get watched in Seattle, believe it or not) telecasts and start producing analysis and talk-style programming to fill out the down days.
They can show classic Mariner games and the like as well, the way the YES network does it, but they need a variety of sports to fill in the offseason.

Or sell the team to Paul

Or sell the team to Paul Allen (if he isn't burned out).. The Blazers'TV deals goes up after 2013.
With the Sonics being sold, it would be nice to have some basketball programming back. Allen has more than enough funds to build his own network and would have a hammer in negotiations with two major sports locked down.

The Mariners and the Money Vault …

Hey Doc!
Saw your piece back here awhile ago, but was busy in my own mad scientist laboratory banging out my own creation. Here is my own Frankenstein's monster on the subject for your perusal. Hope you enjoy ...
The Mariners and the Money Vault ... Major League Baseball and the Television Monopoly Game ...
Love to get your thoughts on this beast of a post. ;)
MA