Wilson SS and a bat at 3B ?

Spec seems incapable of opening his mouth except to provide Zen-like koan for meditation:  

 +++++ Would Wilson's defense cause them to consider Branyan at third in 2010 (I recall when Beltre went down they said "we don't want to move him in the middle of the season when he's so hot at the plate" or something to that effect; that is, they may view it differently if he had the whole offseason to prepare).

I raise this because of the comment the brass made to USSM that they love Tui but aren't convinced he's an MLB 3b.

Branyan at third opens up both 1b and DH for any FA, trade and/or prospects you'd want to slide in there.

I realize Branyan ain't great on defense, but he has played third more often than not.  Just how bad is he if paired with a guy like Wilson?  -- SPEC ++++

........................

From a standpoint of the pitchers' states of mind, you've got a point.

The John Hart Indians had a lot of butchers on the field, but they had little O at SS, sort of gluing the whole defense.

In 1995, for example, the Indians had Thome at 3B (!), Carlos Baerga at 2B and Sorrento at 1B.  Whatever the stats would say -- and I haven't looked it up -- those guys were all very questionable defenders.

But little O was so slick, and so confident, at the SS position that the pitchers were fine with giving up ground balls.   The 1995 Indians of course won 100 games in a 144-game season, with a 122 ERA+.

This is a model for a team exploiting a great SS to put bats on the infield. 

.................

.................

In terms of runs gained and lost, here's one situation where I'd be inclined to be very mathematical about the + and - of Branyan at 3B (and Carp at 1B) compared to Branyan 1B and a hole at third.

You lose, I dunno, pencil in -10, -15 with the mitt, if you play Branyan at third (compared to an average 3B, not compared to the glorious defender Beltre).   But Branyan's bat gains you a whale of a lot more than +10 runs compared to a Jack Hannahan at third.

Anyway, look at all your 3B / 1B pairs and add it up.  I'd allow myself to be bullied by the math on this one (though not necessarily by UZR's, or by a blogger's interpretation of what the defensive cost is).

And you bear in mind that the overall decision is not "captured" by that math.  Other positions, other possibilities, are bumped in domino effect by your decision to play Branyan at 3B or 1B.

.................

.................

Look at it this way.  If you DID want to make a big impact with a bat-first, no-glove player, where would you do it?  3B is a great place -- LF and 1B already are bat-first positions; CF you need a glove; SS you'd prefer a bat-first player ... 3B is a place where you might have the luxury of choosing a Jim Thome.

My boyhood idols, the 1970-77 Cincinnati Reds, became overwhelming precisely when they removed a glove-first 3B (Denis Menke) and replaced him with the older Pete Rose at third.   Their lineup just became packed with bats.  Dave Concepcion played SS for the Big Red Machine and played the little O role -- Concepcion and Geronimo (short and CF) were the glove guys.

Earl Weaver also had the tendency to find a Belanger for SS, a Blair for CF, and then to put extreme bat-first players onto the field around them.

....................

No question that with Gutierrez in CF, and Wilson at SS, the Mariners can now put bats wherever they want.

Maybe the defensive contortions were just band-aids, until Capt Jack could get the middle of the diamond together on defense.  Now THAT would be officer thinking.  :- )

Wilson with a Gold Glove at SS, Russ Branyan with 40 homers at 3B, that is a concept that a lot of teams have won 100 games with.

Cheers,

Dr D

Comments

1
M's Watcher's picture

Remember that Earl had Brooks Robinson to go along with Belanger and Blair.  Even so, you have a good point.  Wilson may cover a multiude of infield sins.

2

So no...I don't think adding Wilson gives you carte blanche to stick a clanker glove at third to get a bat in there.  Lopez is TERRIBLE...and getting worse each year.  Wilson's job is to cover the middle of the diamond far more than to cover third base.

3
OOBF's picture

Where did all this sentiment come from that J-Lo is a terrible defender???  Especially the getting worse every year part.  He is better this year than last.  At worst he is "slightly" below average, and it certainly isn't because of his range.  According to UZR Lopez actually has above average range, and we all know he has a fine arm (good enough to play 3B), his only problem (and the only reason he has a negative UZR) is his error rate, which can have as much to do with bad luck and trying to get to too many balls as it does actual skill.  Now I don't maintain that Jose is gold glove, but he definitely is not "terrible, and getting worse".  He is about average, and in fact getting better.  I think that playing next to Yuni was a negative influence (SS personality is usual the team personality), and if anything J-Lo will imporve defensively watching Jack Wilson fly around like a mainiac.
Also does fangraphs have trend lines for UZR?  It feels like J-Lo has gotten better as the year has worn on, but it just has a yearly total no splits (at least none that I see)

4

...I've beent racking UZR/150 all season just to see how it evolves (for the Mariners only)...and Lopez is not getting better.  He's gotten slightly worse in the last two months actually.
In late may he was at +1.0
In mid June, 0.2
At the AS break, -1.8
Currently -2.6
And I get my "terrible and getting worse" from this trend:
2006: +5.0
2007: +1.4
2008: -4.2
2009: -2.6
A little better this year than last, but the general trend is down...he muscled up to hit for more power this year and it's cutting into his range...and he continues to be a ditz periodically and make stupid mistakes that shouldn't be made.

5

The Earl Weave dynasty Orioles had slightly above average pitching (not nearly as great as people believe, but above average), good pop at 1B and RF and occasionally behind the plate or in left, and all-time great team defense, anchored by four of the best fielders to ever play their respective positions - Paul Blair (7th all time on my list of great defensive center fielders), Bobby Grich (6th all time on my list of great defensive second basemen), Mark Belanger (SECOND all time on my list of the greatest defensive shortstops...behind only Ozzie Smith), and Brooks Robinson (FIRST all time among third basemen).
Dr. D always asks me if I REALLY believe that a relatively pedestrian offense and pitching staff backed by sensational defense can win 90-100 games...perhaps he should go check out those Oriole teams.  Or the 1900s Cubs.

6

But as he wrote in Earl on Strategy, his future decisions on the IF (DeCinces, Grich, etc) were based on who he thought the best hitter would be.
DeCinces turned out to be a decent 3B, and Grich a plus 2B, but Earl is specific about why he gave them their jobs:  they were the best hitters available to him at those positions.
Earl turned out to have some wonderful players, offense and defense, but if youse guys are thinking he was a glove-first manager you might want to read his books.  ;- )

7

Could be that the stats ultimately prove me wrong here, but to my eye, Jose Lopez is definitely a quality defensive second baseman.
If Lopez goes to another context (another team and park) and doesn't show good stats, I'll reconsider.  But I think he has good range at 2B.

8

and 90 wins, then sure.
You take a 100 ERA+ and a 100 OPS+ and add tremendous defensive players everywhere, then sure.  +9 wins, teamwide, is the upper bound for what I'd expect from a tremendous defense.
Now, park effects are another question entirely.

9

The argument is that Jose Lopez's range is tanking, but the numbers don't support it.
He's tracking a positive range via UZR this year.  It's the errors that are killiing him and he doesn't have a track record for committing excessive errors, so I'm inclined to not see that as a problem.  Jose has been a MLB 2nd baseman for 5 years now and if his range numbers stay the same this year he will only have 1 year with a negative range factor according to UZR.  Maybe he is a butcher with the glove, but not according to UZR.

10

is 5.01 per 9 innings, compared to the league at 4.94.   
However we adjust and normalize, the raw data is that Lopez has gotten to more-than-average balls over the course of 3,000 chances.   If he is a bad second baseman, it's not showing up in terms of outs he makes, unadjusted.
BP's RATE stat has him as a 102 second baseman, lifetime, though weirdly down this year.
He is a 2B who has played a significant amount of SS, so that's one more piece of data that counts in his favor.
 

11

...I'm not just talking about range...a good shortstop can reduce the need for a second baseman to go after balls that he's likely to make errors on as well, guys.

13

First play, a grounder deep in the hole at short that he dove for and had it go off the tip of his glove for a hit.
Second play, he fielded a ball deep in the hole and made a nice throw to first to just barely nip Pierzynski
Third play, he kind of lolligagged a routine slow bouncer right to the 6 spot and his throw BARELY got Rios.
Fourth play he fielded a routine one hopper right at him and made the play easily.
Fifth play he made a spectacular diving catch and got the out from a low scrambling position.
I'd say he was at least as good defensively as Woodward.

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