1
5 bases loaded walks on the year and a fielder's choice account for half his RBI on the year. Ouch.
His double last night and the flyout in the 8th woulda been homers, once upon a time...
Traffic Jam
THE DH has played 35 games this year, with 150 plate appearances, and has 0 homers.
1/4 of the season. Slugging in the 200's.
And the Mariners have six (6) bats they'd like to check out: Peguero, Wilson, Carp, and Saunders, with backup infielders Rodriguez and Kennedy who need DH at-bats too. Five of these guys bat left-handed.
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When the Oakland A's have young hitters who interest them, and who are ML-ready, they waive DH's who (1) are OPS'ing 100 and who are (2) losing ground to 100 as time passes.
If the A's had two of those six players missing time -- Peguero, Wilson, Carp, Saunders, Kennedy, and LRod -- they'd clear out Jack Cust.
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It would be one thing, if you didn't want to see what Mike Wilson and Mike Carp and Luis Rodriguez could do. But the Mariners do want to see what those players can do. They've said so.
A week ago, Zduriencik said "this is the right time and the right place for Mike Wilson." It's no longer the right time and place. Sitting on the bench for a week, Wilson is stale now. His timing is gone.
It would be the right time and place for him, if he went down and got his timing back, IMHO.
However, it is the right time and place for Mike Carp. Carp has had two trial runs at the majors before; he's about to turn 25 years old; he has solved AAA and played well there for a long time; he's red-hot in AAA as we speak.
No way that Mike Carp is not major league ready. He might be not major league talented, in which case you powerflush him and get on with managing your talent pool dynamically. But Mike Carp is ready. He's banged 40+ homers for your AAA team. He's circling the airport.
He's promot-able. The only reason he's not up, is because the M's are married to Cust.
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And even if you do get a few months' look at Mike Carp ... there are guys behind him you need to evaluate, right? The 40-man and the Rule 5 are always pressing you...
By next spring, are you going to get Mangini, Halman, and Tuiasosopo their big league at-bats... or do you just want to cut them loose right here and now.
There's a lot of PSI in the pipeline behind Jack Cust. He needs to be a major plus in Safeco to justify his parking spot. Like, 90+ RBI's.
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At this point, it seems to me that there had been a spirited internal debate on Cust this winter, the echoes of which are biasing the decision about when to hand the locker to the next guy in line.
Our guess is, that there have been people backing Cust hard, and now it's tough to push back at your friends just when Cust has been, um, better... (better than what? than himself...)
That's my crystal-ball gaze, anyhow... understandable that Capt Jack would hate to tell his favorite advisors, "Hey, Cust has shown he's got something in the tank. That's great. But we're shy on power right now and we better see if a few of these kids can come up with some. Maybe Carp can carry over his little power surge for us."
He'd hate to do that to his advisors, we're sure, but it's just a matter of doing it now vs. doing it later. Because:
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If Jack Cust plays the entire season at this pace, he'll finish with 32 runs scored and 44 RBI. In 140 games played.
And those stats are no accident; Cust isn't hitting. He's walking. He walks to first and then what?
Cust is on 1B, and then it is up to the bottom of the lineup to move him over -- three separate times. It's not going to happen.
If the M's don't swap out, their cleanup hitter will finish with fewer than 50 runs scored.
A walk is only worth so much.
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As M's fans, the sooner the M's transition the DH, the more pleased we should be. One of these kids might be a real good hitter.
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My $0.02,
Jeff
Comments
2
Forgot about the 5 RBI's on walks.
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Tonight, Figgins on 1B, Cust got a high pitch, loaded up, squared it perfectly, followed through with zing, and I jumped. FINALLY! HE FINALLY GOT ONE! I thought it was 10-15 rows deep, if not off the Cafe.
It was pulled right down the RF line, and it didn't have the distance. Double.
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3
I went into my home run call...and it bounced off the wall...and the first thing I said was "wow...Cust is literally incapable of hitting a home run in major league baseball at this point..."
And then he did it AGAIN...in the 7th inning, he got a pitch up, squared the ball beautifully (Simms went into HIS home run call!)...the fall carried as well as Cust can get it to carry...and was caught a step in front of the warning track in center field.
He needs to go...occasional doubles and a bunch of walks do NOTHING for this offense if he's completely incapable of hitting a major league home run anymore.
4
2009 Full Season
.283
.339
.425
.764
2010 as of 5/31
.294
.388
.439
.826
2011 AAA rehab
.275
.362
.425
.787
Plug in that Gutierrez, and even just a .700 OPS Ackley, and 9+ K/9 Kelley (and hopefully Lueke) and see what June-October brings.
5
...the .340 OBP Gutierrez, I'll take that gladly...plus which...unlike Saunders...Guti grinds out his at bats with a plan...he'll work pitchers a lot harder than Saunders does and pitchers will be at least a little afraid of giving in on 2-0 and giving him a fastball up and over the plate the way they can routinely do with Saunders.
Ackley will do the same thing. Even if he just hits .270/.350/.370 the first year (which is IMHO a very low guess)...he'll be learning about big league pitching and helping the club...win win.
Two more guys that grind at bats...and your line-up will then be:
RF) Ichiro (on base and speed)
3B) Grinds at bats...though his results might not be helpful)
1B) Smoak (grinder with legit power threat)
CF) Gutierrez (legit AB grinder)
DH) Carp/Cust/Kennedy (all grinders)
C) Olivo (latin free-swinger with some occasional pop)
LF) Peguero/Wilson
SS) ryan/Rodriguez (Ryan sucks...but he does grind out ABs better than Jack Wilson did)
2B) Ackley (legit grinder)
That team will stress some pitchers even if they can only score 1-2 runs at a time.
6
Scouting consensus is that Pirates take Cole, but they don't necessarily agree he's the top guy: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110513&content_id=19005300&vke...
Pittsburgh brass talks to mlb.com: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110516&content_id=19131388&vke...
Key takeaway:
One thing the Pirates are not prepared to do is pass on a pitcher simply because history shows that pitchers are the riskier investment.
"Historically, the game is built around pitching," Smith said. "The reality is that they're always one pitch away from hurting their arm. But unfortunately, there have also been position players that have injuries. It is a question that is going to require a lot of dialogue, but I think we showed last year if it's the right player with the right talent, we'll take him."
Also, the Pirates scouting director had the #1 pick when he was with the Tigers, and wasted it on a guy named Matt Anderson: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/anderma01.shtml
Side benefit of Pirates taking Cole: no Cole vs. Bauer debate.
Local TV report on Bubba Starling, which has some pretty good baseball footage (yes, the dude is fast): http://www.ketv.com/video/27907674/detail.html
Key takeaway: Mom wants him to go to college.
7
If Cole goes to the Pirates. Between Bauer and Rendon I pick Rendon, but even having that choice would be great. Watch, we'll pick someone else and leave me with a slack jaw. ;) Though if it was Starling, I would get that. He is a freak, a Heyward-like freak except he plays center field. We'd have our choice of the best college hitter and instant plus hitter, A Lincecum redux or a Natural out there in CF who just needs polish.
I trust Jack with his choice of those first-round picks. The man's missed once in his career in the first, and made it up with an overslot high schooler later (much like adding Paxton in the 4th to ensure another top-flight prospect in the 2010 draft).
But in 3 weeks I hope to hear that we've bolstered our offense with a massive upgrade at 3B and our #3 hitter who'll show up sometime in 2012.
The other main option, of adding another hydra head to the top of our 2012-2013 rotation, is a nice fallback position to have. I've been hoping for months for the cards to fall this way. 3 weeks to go...
~G
8
Me want RENDON. Oh please let the Pirates be dumb enough to pick Cole...pretty please? :) It would feel so good to get another Ackley right now...and Rendon is Ackley plus some more pop potentially. Imagine your 2013 line-up: 2B) Ackley CF) Gutierrez 3B) Rendon 1B) Smoak DH) Poythress/Carp and fill in the rest from there...
9
I'll concede I've lost the Cole vs. Bauer debate on this board, but I'm not conceding Rendon vs. Bauer.
Ackley, Rendon and Smoak + Felix and Pineda will have me contemplating this: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2001.shtml
Ghost, you know of any studies showing the impact of three guys with OBP over .380 in the same lineup? In our case, once Ichiro-Edgar-Olerud stopped doing that together, the wins stopped.
10
The Pirates have demonstrated their convictions in the past.
The brain trust here (Taro, G, Spec, etc etc) talked about the crushing pressure of draft day and the Pirates reverting to their instincts.
Looks like maybe they didn't need to get all the way to draft day to revert?
11
but on Rendon vs. Bauer, SSI sticks to its guns on this one.
Bauer looks tremendously exciting but
(1) 10 super-elite college bats will give you 7 (?) star MLB'ers whereas 10 top-college-pitchers will give you 3 (?) star MLB'ers. It's like you asked me, do I want to try to roll a craps 6 point, or a 3 point. It's not possible to choose the 3 point.
(2) Bauer is my guy after Rendon - Taro and G and Trevor talked me into it - but Bauer is slightly gimmicky. He ain't Tim Lincecum.
If there were a Stephen Strasburg or Tim Lincecum, hard on the barrelhead, THEN we could AGONIZE over maybe taking the odds-hit and going with the Strasburg.
IMHO Bauer isn't at that level. He's "just" the best pitcher this year.
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If Rendon's shoulder really is shredded, then it's back to pick 'em, though. Dunno if you want to wait the extra year-plus of white-knuckle time when Bauer is available. Tough call in that case.
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12
According to my slightly-blocked B-R.com reference search, there are 15 teams in the last 60 years with 4 or more, and then the seasons with 3 players start. Looks like 1-2 teams with 3 guys at .380 per season, some seasons with none. Dunno how they contribute overall (I'm looking at a 1996 Milwaukee Brewers team with Jeff Cirillo that had 4 guys doin it, right next to a Big Red Machine team and the 1953 Yankees) but it's certainly a way to get to a semi-productive offense quickly.
#10-20 on the list (all I can see without signing up, the first 6 on this list had 4 doin it and the next 5 had 3):
1996 Brewers: 97 OPS+ (you know how HARD they had to work to suck like that??)
1976 Reds: 120 OPS+
1970 Giants: 103 OPS+
1956 Tigers: 104 OPS+
1953 Yankees: 111 OPS+
1953 Cardinals: 100 OPS+
2011 Cards: 119 OPS+ (start of the three .380 OBP teams)
2009 Yankees: 114 OPS+
2009 Red Sox: 105 OPS+
2007 LAAA: 99 OPS+
2007 Rockies: 98 OPS+
I with you 100% Spec - it's Rendon for me every time. But even Ackley+Rendon+Smoak doesn't FIX this offense, it just helps it limp along at a league average if we're still dragging Sandy's well-illustrated 5 black holes along for the ride.
Don't get me wrong, a league-average offense with some of the pitching we look to be putting together can win it all, which is another reason I'm in favor of Rendon to jumpstart our offensive recovery.
But it's not a panacea. We've also gotta keep the Wilson/Figgins/Saunders/Olivo/Ryan style bats from congealing in the 5-9 spots and snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
~G
13
It should be the easiest thing in the world to upgrade 50 OPS+ batters.
14
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/2011/insider/columns/story?columnis...
As of 5/18, he's shifted his draft prediction according to the above:
1) Pirates take Danny Hultzen. He has a blizzard of pitches too and doesn't make people as uncomfortable as Bauer. I can absolutely see him as a Pirates pick - he's right up their alley.
2) Mariners take Anthony Rendon. Law says "I know Jack Zduriencik went to see both Francisco Lindor and Bubba Starling last week, but everyone I talk to says Seattle is taking Rendon if they're happy with the medicals -- and a very good source told me earlier this week that there is nothing structurally wrong with Rendon's shoulder."
As we should.
3) Bauer to the D-Backs.
4) Bundy (best HS arm who could race to the bigs) to the Orioles.
5) Cole to KC.
I would dance the dance of brotherly love at that particular draft rundown.
~G
15
....please please please please please please PLEASE let this be the way it plays out. :D
16
Don't understand why the M's would be looking at Lindor at #2 overall. This guy's absolute ceiling is Rafael Furcal, and he's extremely raw and probably going to need 4-5 seasons in the minors. Some scouting reports have even questioned his speed. Fielding should not be the priority with a #2 overall pick.
Starling is expected to develop fast and is undeniably the second best (maybe even best) hitting prospect in the draft. Still don't see how he would make sense for the M's given the vast amount of college and pitching talent available.
If Rendon's medicals don't check out, the M's should be choosing between whoever is available out of Hultzen, Cole, and Bauer. If they're absolutely set on taking a high ceiling player, Bundy is the best arm in the draft. Hopefully we hear about Z going to see these players over the next 2 weeks.
On a side note, living in Baltimore I'd be thrilled with the O's choosing between Bundy and Cole with a #4 pick. Either of these guys are better than Taillon, who was basically last year's #1 overall since Harper had to go through loopholes for eligibility.
17
... the multitude of 60 OPS+ guys that Seattle has handed 200+ PAs to in recent years should be evidence that it ain't as easy as it sounds:
2010: Moore (44); Josh (62); Jack (68); Johnson (63)
2009: Johnson (66); Yuni (64), Cedeno (35)
2008: Johjima (63); Vidro (64), Wlad (58)
2007: none - Lopez @ 71 was worst with 200 PAs
2006: Reed (65); Willie B. (64)
2005: Willie B (69); Olivo (20) only got 157 PAs while Borders (34) added 125
And that ignores all the failed experiments that were ended before 200 PAs - (Grffiey in '10), Tui, Saunders, Bill Hall, Rene Rivera, Eduardo Perez, Adam Jones (in '06),
18
Geoff Baker had a great line on Baker Live ... that when two guys like Cole and Rendon are front-runners for so long, "they become stale and teams start looking for reasons not to take them."
You know, it shuts down the Big Draft Analysis Game if you're not debating the top pick... keeps it fresh to zig-zag off the actual best players...
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19
It's quite a longshot that all of the Big Three go 1-2-3... and there are tasty picks beyond those guys also, guys who could be considered for the 1-1 in other drafts...
20
I actually think the early season hype is massively overrating Gerrit Cole. Hes been way too hittable to be a top 2 pick and shouldn't really even be in the discussion. Rendon clearly still belongs in the top 2, and I'd still have him #1 if the shoulder clears.
And really Rendon and Cole just haven't delivered this year. Rendon hasn't followed up on his past couple seasons and Cole has been downright medicore (worse than the past couple years despite the new bats). There is a ton of depth this year, but it didn't end up being a top heavy draft as the pre-season hype indicated. There are no Strasburgs or Harpers. If Ackley were in this draft class, he'd probably be taken #1.
21
I don't think I've ever seen someone square so many balls up beautifully...get a great sound on the contact...have the ball arc up in that home run angle so often in a five-game span...and have absolutely none of them even reach the warning track. This is the most bizarre career-ender I've ever witnessed. Cust is literally incapable of hitting a home run. Truly remarkable. Tonight he he just CRUSHED the ball to right field...and it landed one step in front of the track for an easy out.
22
no way he could hit a ball better than that
23
I mean...how do you get such a pure, homer-happy sound and have the ball freakin' die IN FRONT OF the warning track? That seems unpossible.
24
And I would take Rendon over Ackley in the same draft, so to me it's a terrific stroke of luck that the NO DOUBT #1 pick might be able to fall to #2. Last year people were debating whether Bryce Harper would go #1 in a draft with Rendon in it.
Today we're talking about Hultzen or Cole or some other pitcher leapfrogging Rendon. Rendon's the same guy. Look at it like Felix getting forearm stiffness after over-rotating his arm pitching the lights out of the building on an east coast trip and us getting nervous and trading him for someone "more reliable." He was only a 4.50 ERA pitcher at the time, after all...
I've said I won't gripe TOO much if the Mariners pass on Rendon for an arm, but...I probably will. How much better would Gerrit Cole make our Felix/Pineda/Fister/Vargas/Bedard rotation? Sure, it's great to have extra plus-arms around for the inevitable injury concern or wavering of effectiveness, but...
ERA+ of the rotation: 150, 114, 114, 108, 77. One of the 114s will be up at 140+ by the end of the season. So you think, "Sure, we can swap out the 77" but I expect the 77 to be at 100+ shortly as well.
140, 140, 110, 100, 100 is (scarily) a reasonable expectation for this rotation. Gerrit Cole is not likely to be a better option than Fister/Vargas for 3 years, if ever (IMO). Bauer I think has fairly immediate impact ability...meaning 2013 he should have worked his way into the rotation and posting good numbers off the bat.
I'm not opposed to that.
But good Lord...this lineup is killing my soul. Saunders, Peguero, Mike Wilson, Carp...they're not heart of the order hitters now or ever. Figgins is done. Jack Wilson is done. Brendan Ryan never got started, and neither L-Rod nor Kennedy was ever supposed t o be a solution. Rendon is gonna be a star. I want him to be a star in the middle of my lineup.
I've been wrong before - I thought Alex Gordon would be an impact guy, and soon, and he wasn't. But it wasn't his TALENT that was the problem. His glove failed him, his swagger failed him, and a guy who had never failed or even struggled at any level had trouble adjusting to failure.
I still wanted to trade for Alex Gordon last year, because I believed in his bat. He's hitting at a Raul Ibanez level in LF right now. Not what I thought he would do when I watched him in college, but not a minus hitter by any means and I can very much see him having an Ibanez career from here out, if not better.
Rendon doesn't have glove concerns. He doesn't have attitude concerns. His ONLY concerns are:
- injury status, which is basically a non-issue for me. I watched Jeff Bagwell play the last half-dozen years of his career with one arm and do fine, so in a worst-case scenario he has to DH a la Edgar. It removes the fielding value, but I don't tend to complain if Evan Longoria or David Wright can "only" DH for me. I'm a bigger believer in Rendon's bat than in Gordon's or Ackley's.
- Power drop with new bats, which may be related to injury concerns. Not an issue for me either. He could be a 40/15 guy at third base and still be an all star. If his down-side, "reasonable" projection, including injury concerns, is Robin Ventura (which it is to me) then how in the world can I pass on that at a position of need?
I just want the Pirates to give us that opportunity.
~G
25
I'm astonished that Cust simply cannot get a ball out of the ballpark any more. He turns on a pitch and hammers it...for a soft bloop double or a lazy out.
What we're seeing right now looks like the best version of Cust we're gonna get going forward, and I agree with Doc - it's not sustainable. Guys who can never hurt you with the bat have trouble maintaining a high OBP. It's not impossible...but it's gonna get harder.
Cust is gonna hit another swoon in this season, and it's gonna be his last one with us.
~G
26
Cust's 9 doubles still make him the 2nd-best XBH threat in the lineup, which is mostly a commentary on the rest of the lineup.
Olivo's career Seattle SLG (139 G) is 100 points lower than it's been with every other team he's played for and 155 points lower than it was in KC (198 G). I had come around to the idea that it would be different this time, but . . .
Well, thank goodness for Smoak. Let's just leave it at that.
27
Ya, I'm with you there. Still leaning toward Rendon at #1. The injuries concern me, but if hes an injury-prone early-version of Edgar thats still an impact player. I no longer see him as a monster Bryce Harper level spec, but I still think hes a Dustin Ackley-level prospect.
The biggest question for me is who the Ms go with if the Pirates snag Rendon at #1. I want Bauer, but I really have no idea who McNamara wants there. Maybe Starling or Lindor? Z supposedly went in person to watch those guys.