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In the article rained out of the iCloud by Benihana, there is another (very strong) idea that the Mariners can't afford to settle for 5.0 WAR in its $25M free agency investing.  Stated differently, you've got an original concept here that --- > a team must shoot well below par in the free-agent market.

Free agent wins cost, on average, about $4.5M apiece.  In that article, you've got the assertion that you're committing suicide to actually spend $4.5M for a free agent win.  This is a core concept being advanced.  

I'd be curious to know what Tom Tango, the high priest of $/WAR valuation and a friend of Cameron's, thinks about this idea.  In the six or eight times that Dr. D has visited his site, he has read Tango as endorsing the basic idea of spending a fair $4.5M for a fair 10 runs' production.  

(This concept, of counting [wins available and money available] and purchasing at or below industry rate, was invented by CPA John Benson in about 1990.)

When a team, any team, spends the fair $4.5M/WAR amount, Tango seems to sign off on the deal as beneficial to both club and player.  (Correct Dr. D if he's wrong.)

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Quick take #1:  of course every team needs some production out of arb and pre-arb players.  The more the better.

Of course a team can't build a roster out of 25 free agents.  Why do you think the Brewers wouldn't trade you Prince Fielder three years ago?  Every team, including the Yankees, fights to the death to protect its arb- and pre-arb players.

Does that prove you can't buy free agents?  For fair market value, $4.5M per win?  That you need lots of Mike Carps and Justin Smoaks to win?

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Ironically, there is a way to get more production out of arb and pre-arb players; there is a way to spend $2M per WAR.  It is by investing in one Star, rather than in three Civics.  We'll get to that.

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This has nothing to do with 25 Civics Logic, but Dr. D will advance a third idea against the Prince Fielder signing.

SSI has noted with great nausea Scott Boras' early shots across the bow.  Right away, Boras campaigns that (1) Albert Pujols and (2) Prince Fielder are (3) not comparable players.  I'll let you guess which player Boras thinks doesn't measure up to the other.

When Zduriencik says, Well, we've got to see about the dollars, THIS is what he's talking about.  Prime Time with Scott Boras.

I know, I know, the guy's doing his job.  So why does everybody have to fight the gag reflex when looking at him?

It's called greed.  It's Boras' aversion to the win-win scenario.  Right off the bat, you've got Boras straight-facedly arguing that Prince Fielder should be paid much, much more than Albert Pujols will be paid.

Leaving us, as Mariner fans, thinking in terms of Andre Ethier...

The upside?  Boras can talk all he wants.  But the Mariners are bidding against mid-market teams this time, boys... many of whom will be squeamish about a 300+ lb. $200M man...

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Both of the Big Blog ideas listed above have legs, IMHO.  

However, there is another core concept here that won't walk, much less run.  That being the idea that five Civic free agents will out-produce one Prince Fielder plus four club-controls players.

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