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Template 6.5, 1.5 minors: Andrew Carraway Dept.
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Q. Who are we talking about here?
A. We're talking about Andrew Carraway.
We listed him as a AAA pitcher with a 1.5 walk, 7 strikeout profile, on which G politely corrected us. :- ) No, this time we knew that Carraway wasn't yet to Cheney. We're giving Carraway the benefit of assuming that he is going to run the same stats in AAA, which he probably will.
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Q. Thoughts on Carraway specifically?
A. Here's a video of him. He points the toe wrong and locks his front knee up, but aside from that, he's got a lot of real good things going on (as you'd expect from a 1.5 BB pitcher).
He is "true" down the centerline and gets nice acceleration of his CG. He splays the four limbs creating a centrifugal whirl, he drives the wallet at the hitter, he finishes over the top but smoothly.
This is the vaunted "High Front Side, Throws Downhill" motion, Lonnie, a la Paul Abbott. Gives the "clonk" when batters hit the ball. Really nice motion if he'd point the toe at the hitter and land on the ball of his foot.
Ken Cloude had a gorgeously repeatable motion. I bet you the motion was what got him his time in the show. No, just kidding. Carraway gets full credit for a very cool sports movement.
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He's not in BaseballHQ's top 40 M's or Churchill's top 50, which causes us to assume that his stuff is short. I dunno.
He gets credit for being a command pitcher, which reminds us of Ken Cloude at this point, and he looks like a normal person rather than a baseball player, which reminds us of Ken Cloude.
We joked around about "baseball faces." Carraway and Cloude do not have "baseball arms," by which I mean that their arms are short, kind of soft-looking and look like they should be hanging off the shoulder of a tech writer. I'll bet your arm looks like Carraway's. Neither of our arms can throw the ball as hard as Carraway's arm can, but that's beside the point. No baseball face hanging from that shoulder.
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But, hey. Maybe Andrew Carraway has Jason Vargas' makeup? Or maybe he has Erasmo-type command? Or something else? We didn't sez that Carraway is a writeoff. We sez that he's off our radar until he gives us a specific sign of major league-age. The fact that he runs 7.0 strikeouts and 1.6 walks, in AA, means absolutely zero to me.
Well, it means that he gets to keep pitching... as you know, I ain't the shot caller here. I can cyber-yap all I want and it ain't going to take one inning away from Andrew Carraway in real life.
From 3,000 miles away he looks to me like he's got Ken Cloude written all over him. But hey, you wanna root for him, don' let our cornball shtick stop ya.
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Teach the kid a Paul Abbott changeup and it'll be another subject. :- )
Best,
Dr D
Comments
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Another nice effort from Beavan. How is he doing it?
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Got an article up on it amigo.
Incumbent on Beavan to make many fewer mistakes than other pitchers do. First pitch HAS to be (1) a strike and (2) not in the hitter's red zone.
Right now, that's exactly what he's accomplishing.
Kinda like your profession compared to mine :- D
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Gave up a leadoff homer and a 1 out double in the first, changed sequences, and then 20 straight fellas got up to the plate and went back to the dugout with their heads hanging.
"I didn't even realize that [I had retired 20 in a row] until I got in the dugout," Carraway said. "I felt good tonight. I felt like my catcher [Ralph Henriquez] and I were on the same page. We talked about mixing pitches more after the second inning, and we were able to do that from that point on. I have to give a lot of credit to him."
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Carraway thinks his starts serve as talking points for him with the young trio, none of whom have more than a year of pro experience.
"They're newer to pro baseball than I am, and with an outing like this, I feel like I can talk to them about what I did," the Georgia native said. "Being able to see things and sit in on meetings, maybe I can pass things along."
Essentially: Yeah, I know they want the same job I do, but this is my organization and I'm gonna do everything I can to make them the best pitchers they can be. And then I'm still gonna throw my hat in the ring against em for a roster spot.
I really do like that kid. 2 starts, 13 IP, 4 hits, 10 K, 1 walk, 0.69 ERA.
And he's the acknowledged 5th best prospect in the starting rotation, maybe 9th or 10th on the staff.
5 years from now, somebody's gonna be really happy to have Carraway in their major league rotation.
~G
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... as you guys keep the binoc's on him...
Good link by the way! And Jackson's an easy 5-1 so far. They could rip off 15 in a row or something in May. Who knows.
Like I say, their rotation vs. the Mariners' in a set series?, and I'm good with Jackson's. Certainly I'd be fine with Paxton-Hultzen-Taijuan-Carraway vs. Vargas-Noesi-Beavan-Millwood.
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Not that anybody's complaining about Danny Hultzen at this point, but Lincecum The Sequel goes off again, 11 strikeouts vs 2 hits.
Similar profile, too, 11K and 4BB in 6 innings, which would translate to 8K and 2BB in the big leagues.
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;-)
It was a hard draft for me to watch Rendon and Bauer both be there, and to see us pass on both.
One of those drafts where you want to believe your team passed on Lincecum because they drafted Kershaw, a pitcher you can be very happy to have even if he's not The Freak.
Not because the liked the manly physique of Andrew Miller or the intimidation of Luke Hochevar or the boyish charm of Greg Reynolds.
Bauer's an aircraft carrier. I just want Hultzen to be an ultra-reliable battleship. Couple of days til he gets back on the mound to show he can keep up with his teammates - and his draft-class competition.
~G
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11:30 AM Eastern, 8:30 Pacific. If anybody wants to see Paxton for a full game a couple of months before he reaches The Show.
And yeah, Jackson has quite the rotation. For as long as those guys are together I do feel sorry for other teams - and other pitchers trying to get into the All-Star game. If they had a pro offense backing them, like the 2-to-5 starters for the Ms do...
Yeah, I'd be hard-pressed to vote against the Jacksonites (Jacksonians?).
~G
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4.2 IP (pitch count limits), 4 hits (2 base-hit bunts in the first inning against a 3B statue), 1 run (sac fly), 7K / 1 BB, ERA 0.87 after two games.
The Smokies put one ball hard in play all game against Paxton. He'll actually have better pitch counts when major league hitters can ground out or fly out weakly instead of fouling no-prayer pitches into the stands or back to the screen.
He didn't have good control of his curveball either, which let them sit on his fastball...and then do absolutely nothing with it. It was a B- game for him. Ha.
A week until we can promote him to the big-league rotation and ensure his extra service year. If only we would actually do that.
~G
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Paxton looks to be completely outclassing the minors. Hand him a 6-year extension with some club option years and bring the guy up.
Please don't remind me of Bauer.. I really wanted him badly, more so than Rendon who had the injury question mark.
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G, you watched it?
Estimated MPH on the fastball? Wonder why SO many strikes if the curve wasn't there... MPH, or throwing downhill, or command, or what...
Didn't want to spend the $10 per month for one game, but I suppose if there were any time you were going to pay that, I guess now would be it... if only I could remember to cancel that kinda stuff :- )
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It's *feasible* that they are thinking, 3-4 weeks into the season we'll pick the SP who needs the most work, and amputate... Noesi right now being that guy ... if they wait 3 starts and then pick out a wide receiver downfield, that'll be fine and dandy by me.
Problem is, Sims and Blowers are on TV with the "gotta build the innings" mantra, and with gusto, and those cue cards are often provided by the Mariners...
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Gotta build the innings why, dudes? Where is the proof of that? Back in Zduriencik's day, 20-year-olds threw 300 innings. In the majors. And made the HOF.
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Is "demonstrably unhittable" a velocity?
The commentators (for the opposing team) were laughing at the outfield positioning on some of the RH batters. "Uh...the LF is playing left center, the Center fielder is in right center, and the right fielder is practically standing on the line. I guess they figure he's not gonna pull a pitch from Paxton..."
And nobody was CLOSE to pulling a pitch. Almost none of em made it into play at all, once the "James Paxton is pitching and the 3B is standing back! BUNT!!" first inning was over.
He retired 9 in a row after a 2nd inning double.
Paxton threw a couple of changeups (should have struck out a dude on one, I thought, but no such luck). For the most part though it was fastball/curve. He threw a couple of humpbacked slurves for strikes but the big breaker was rarely called "in the zone." So he hammered the zone with mid-90s (or faster) heat that nobody could turn around and they eventually swung through. After watching Beavan most of last night, this looked more like 5 innings of a LH Wilhelmsen. Nasty.
And again, not his best game. A merely average performance. A one-weapon performance, pretty much, from a guy who's decided, "If I get a 3 ball count, I'm torching the zone with fastballs until I roast you." I'm guessing "control issues" is what they told him when he got demoted, and he started grinding molars and glaring fire. "I only have control issues because YOU told me to work on a changeup and not worry about walks." So now, no control issues even when the curve isn't working right. He used to get hit in college when the curve was off. No more.
You remember how Bartolo Colon used to look for the Indians? 96, 97, 98...and he just kept piping unhittable fastballs and killing you with the curve? This looks like that.
He should not be in the minors. I hope it's not for much longer - we have Rangers and Angels and Athletics to massacre, and we'll need all the help we can get.
~G
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Bwahahahahaaaaa!
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So - any difference today between Paxton's stuff and Kershaw's? Paxton's velo is not inferior to CK's today, at all?
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Legit point about getting the hammer called for strikes. And you know it's going to lock AA hitters up every time.
Question is whether ML umps will call the pitch.... guess they did for Kershaw.
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Hey the rest o' you chumps, not G ... give it up for ol' Dr. D. When Hultzen was fashionable, D said nada. Paxton. All y'all comin' around?
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If they did, it wasn't memorable. Mostly they saw it coming in with two feet of break and prayed, "please be out of the zone, pleasepleaseplease..." Most of em were juuust a bit high or a touch outside. Or the ump just wasn't comfortable calling that kind of pitch a strike, as appeared to happen a couple of times too.
Also, I didn't see any demonstrable difference in effectiveness between the 4 and 2 seamer. I assume some of the swinging strikes were on 2 seamers because a few of the pitches had tailing action I don't associate with his 4-seamer. They'd just swing over the top of the (assumed) 2-seamer and slink back to the dugout.
He's got 2 fastballs and a hammer curve, and a work-in-progress changeup. How many plus pitches does a dude need to get a call-up?
As a downside option, Paxton is a LH Morrow within the year. At best, he's Year Three Kershaw (Cy Young Kershaw is a couple years down the line if we're really lucky). I think he's Year Two Kershaw, and I have trouble seeing the need to keep that guy in the minors.
I'm running 97 year old Kevin Millwood out there to give our version of Kershaw some more seasoning?
My guess is: no, we're running Millwood out there to buy an extra year on Paxton. Which I get. I absolutely get that.
Once we get it, though - promotions are in order. Even if he's just 20 IP into the season.
~G
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I wish somebody would explain to me, in 1-syllable words so I can understand it, why 5-6 innings in Safeco is different than 5-6 innings in Jackson.
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People say, "what if he can only go five innings." They've got 12 pitchers, Iwakuma rotting on the vine, always 2-3 guys underworked at any given moment.
And he'll go six innings SOMEtimes.
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Paxton can go 5, then cede it to a few innings from Erasmo. 5 days later, Erasmo can start and Paxton can throw 3 innings.
You get both of them all year that way, acclimate them to the majors, keep their pitch counts and inning counts down, and the lefty/righty buzzsaw combination would be lethal.
Other than it requiring 2 ounces of courage to do, what's the problem?
~G
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We have starting pitchers coming out our ears, have 8 on the roster, 2 guys you rely on for 6 or 7 every night, and have the last 6 double up on games and throw like relievers for 3 or 4 innings.
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Test it with Paxton and Erasmo this year, then do the same thing with Hultzen and Walker next year.
Year three, and we're good to go with Felix, Erasmo, Paxton, Hultzen and Walker as our Starting Five. Championship. ;-)
~G