Tale of da Tape, Paxton and Hultzen (skippin da minahs)
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Q. So Hultzen should be in the minors in 2012?
A. Not at all. I'd have him in the bigs. (Assuming he is excellent in spring training, which SSI does NOT assume.)
Golebiewski's fine article underlines the reality, er, what woulda been SSI's own guess at it. Hultzen could spend 2012 as either (1) a great AA/AAA pitcher, or as (2) a fairly good AL pitcher. Neither route in 2012, if you ask me, affects his 2013-16 future much either way.
Here is a CBS article that identifies all ML pitchers who skipped the minor leagues since the ammy draft began in 1965:
- Mike Leake
- Ariel Prieto (really an international sign from Cuba)
- Darren Dreifort
- Jim Abbott
- Tim Conroy
- Mike Morgan
- David Clyde (a legendary figure in bonus-baby lore)
There were a few more guys wayyyyyyy back, such as Burt Hooten and Mike Adamson.
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Q. These guys who skipped the minors - they didn't turn out to be Bob Gibson.
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A. Is that because they woulda been, if they'd been in the minors for a year or two? Or is that because they were just eight fairly good pitchers, and their orgs happened to move them up quickly for no special reason?
The guys who really coulda skipped the minors: Stephen Strasburg, Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, and Danny Hultzen -- put them directly in the bigs and then ask how good a pitcher is when he skips :- )
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Q. Did missing the minors hurt Dreifort, Abbott, etc.?
A. I don't believe that many of these guys wound up with ML careers that --- > fell out differently than they'd have, had they spent a year paying their dues on minor-league busses.
Take a look at Jim Abbott's career arc. Would he really have posted ERAs+ better than 142-144 at ages 23-24, if he'd spent ages 21 and 22 in the minor leagues? Nah.
There is no magic sparkle dust to be had, choking on the real dust of the California League. Danny Hultzen can spend a year or two riding busses, or he can spend them as a decent starter in the American League. Either way, he projects to star in Y2 or Y3.
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Q. Hultzen's doomed to be a mediocrity in 2012?
A. That's the MID projection. Cole Hamels showed you the UP scenario. It's perfectly reasonable to root for Danny Hultzen to lead the AL in strikeouts in 2012.
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Q. Is Dr. D as impressed with Hultzen's GameDays as the other SSI authors are?
A. ::shrug:: Hultzen is what he is. He was going to be able to execute these pitches on an ML level.
How fast Hultzen can turn theory into practice, how fast he can learn to twirl 100 straight intelligent pitches without those two pesky HR's to mar his oil paintings, that one's not so easy.
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