Q.  Do the Gutierrez-Half-Full optimists have ANYthing right?

A.  They've got much of it clearly right, and may also have the rest of it opaquely right.

But I doubt it, Charles...

Sez Yahoo 20-team Champ Cool Papa Bell:

Doc, you may very well be right that speed is the most important factor in the outfield, but you are likely overstating its signifigance.

Which is interesting, coming from a guy who himself (IIRC) runs 3.9 to first base.

When a guy whose namesake, and whose own athletic game, starts with speed --- > proposes that speed is overstated for OF defense, you gotta give the props :- )

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First, players aren't primarily selected for their defense but for their offense, and teams often wildly overrate the value of speed in putting runs on the board.

Any fast player who can get the bat on the ball is tagged as a potential leadoff guy, and teams will often give such a player lots opportunities because they so badly want the guy to succeed.

Slower players don't get nearly as much leeway unless they can really mash. (Also, if teams overrate the importance of speed on offense they probably overrate its value on defense as well).

Logical...

Let's start with common ground :- )

Without a doubt, baseball likes "Five Tool Players" more than sabermetricians do.  Cameron Maybin has been a golden boy for a long time.

However, I don't know whether scouts like (let's say) CA/Billy1 and G-Money like "Five Tool Players" (if they do!) like Maybin, Justin Upton, Carl Crawford, etc. because:

1. They are partial to the idea of 40 SB's and 100 runs scored?... or
2. Because they these guys as talent freaks with the potential to become MVP's?

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We've also got common ground in that a SUPER fast guy does seem to get extra looks.  I can remember all the way back to the M's trying to teach Donnell Nixon how to play baseball... of course, these days there aren't as many Donnell Nixons around.  :- )

But yeah.  If a guy is a real speed burner, he's on the radar ... whether playing SS, 2B, LF, or whatever.

This tends to support Cool Papa's belief that teams may overrate speed on offense.  Although I reserve the right to question whether they believe, alternatively, that speed provides a hedge factor in a player's future.

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We've got common ground that Gutierrez, if he can OPS+ 90, is a 2.5 or 3.0 win player -- $10-12M worth per year -- playing for half that.

A young Org Loyalist, in the middle of the field, providing average-solid play for peanuts.

And he looks good.  And he's got upside.

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Finally, we've got common ground that Gutierrez may be a great defender, and that it's reasonably within Zduriencik's prerogative to act on that premise.

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