Confidence is #1 trait for a quality closer, IMO -- significantly ahead of "stuff". (Some of the best closers in history have had 'pedestrian' 'stuff'.
But, one variable in the closer paradigm that I've often pondered -- what is the difference between the closer and the pitchers seen BEFORE he enters the game? The key here is ignore the closer (for a moment), and examine the situation purely from the batter's perspective.
If you're FACING a pure-heat closer, following a junk-ball guy - the heat is going to naturally seem a couple MPH faster. This is, of course, complicated by the reality of single-inning pitchers. In MANY cases, (perhaps most), the last pitcher the final 3 hitters saw before the closer was either the starter - or the 7th inning guy.
Well, if the starts and 7th inning guys are throwing 'slop', the closer gets extra 'perceived' MPH. But, if you're following a high-heat young gun - 'maybe' the transition isn't quite so hard.
Obviously, this is REAL hard to prove - since pitching is about a lot more than just FBs or MPH. But, I've seen before REAL good change-up closers, who seem (to me) to thrive when following hi-heat starters.
The real point here is to remember that the discussion about closers cannot just ignore the hitting side of the equation. If you've been facing 87 mph FBs on the corner with excellent control, (Fister) -- when a guy like Aardsma comes in -- the system shock HAS to be high. Even if you've seen Aardsma before - your timing FOR THAT DAY has been adjusting to what you saw the first 3 times.
That said - I think in some cases this can work against a closer. I think on days when Wakefield has a real good knuckler - most MLB hitters are so overjoyed to face ANY other guy, it ceases to matter that it's Paplebon -- to them - at that moment - Paplebon "feels" easier to hit.
I think this may explain why wild heat closers often have head-scratching success. Because wild heat starters don't last too long - unless they have Nolan Ryan wild heat.
Q. SSI wavering any, on its prediction about Aardsma's impending implosion?
A. Really disliked the way he threw the ball Tuesday. LOL.
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This whole question is one that is very well captured by roto, methinks. I think you'll find that EVERY rotodweeb agrees right down the line as to what David Aardsma is.
The Bob Wickman, Matt Capps, Bobby Jenks type closers -- the ones who do not have true Papelbon, KRod type skill -- the Wickmans and Guardados and Jenkses can cobble along for one season or three, as long as they don't personally begin their own destructions by walking 9 men per 9 innings...
Tell you something. I think any quality 5-year roto owner would be able to call Closers about as well as the people in the game. Just one of those things.
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Q. How does the implosion occur?
A. For the dubious closers, like Frank Francisco, most often the luck catches up and the pseudo-closer blows three or four saves in short succession. For no reason other than that the fly balls happen to go over the fence that week, or into gaps, or whatever.
At that point, the closer's confidence vanishes in a puff of smoke, OR the manager's confidence in him vanishes, OR both occur at the same time. All of a sudden, the closer's mystique is gone, he is viewed through clear glasses, and the countdown begins...
Corollaries: a closer of questionable stuff (Eddie Guardado as an M) can come up with a slightly dead arm and lose a bit of "stuff," or a closer of questionable makeup (Brandon Morrow as an M) can start making a few more mistakes, and this begins the Hot Seat Syndrome...
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Q. Which of these applies to Aardsma?
A. Aardsma is a closer of questionable skill, in that he's throwing 90% fastballs and throwing them wildly... he could implode either via battles with control or via a week's worth of painful HR's...
Aardsma can and will implode at some time in SSI's opinion, but that could be this year, next, or 2012...tonight's save itself was less than awe-inspiring...
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Bring up something that's bemusing. We remember two or three years ago, USSM offering an opinion that Brandon Morrow was overrated, comparing Morrow to ... David Aardsma. Who at the time was bouncing around baseball as a useless pitcher with a big arm.
That seemed an odd comparison to me at the time, but that comp looks a lot more intriguing three years on. :kudos:
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Q. The prospectus on Aardsma -- that is SSI's opinion, or the roto take in general?
A. Again, I think that every 5-year rotodweeb would sign off on everything we'd opined here. Shandler, for one, gives four different reasons he doesn't buy Aardsma as a closer (XERA ... H%, Strand% ... Fly balls ... CTL history) and advises his readers to grab Shawn Kelley in expectation of 20 saves this year.
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Q. Any good news?
A. I do like the fact that Aardsma has decided that he is a great pitcher. :- ) Because of that, we upgrade him a notch or two ... say, to 10th on your AL-only closer list...
Best guess, Aardsma now with a 60%, 70% chance of finishing the season as closer. Because he has a big fastball, a lot of self-belief, and an org that is comfortable with him, he moves up from "Dead Man Walking" to "Shaky" in roto parlance. "Shaky Closer" isn't a big pejorative. About six teams in the league have a highly-paid "Shaky Closer" at any given time.
Aardsma is now a Shaky Closer over a 2-, 3-year scan, which isn't that bad.
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Bottom line, a rotodweeb accepts a guy like Aardsma if a legit closer is not available, but has plenty of insurance around, and is ready to swap out on two seconds' notice...
David Aardsma, at present, does not make the top 5 list of Seattle Mariner problemos...
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My $0.02,
Dr D
Comments
If anybody has a pending implosion, its K-Rod. I'm not saying Aardsma is better, but I am saying K-Rod is not good.
Beyond c-points there are Z-points.
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Hadn't noticed that Wild Thang was following a bunch of 89-mph, 2-BB scrubs into the game. Synergy baby.
That's for sure. Was talking about the classic KRod, 05-07 era.
Right, nowadays he'd be more in the wobbly category.
K-Rod sucks...he's a flop in the making...his arm is going to fall off like a rotten limb on a dead tree in a wind storm any time now.
I generally agree that Aardsma will always be day to day and a white-knuckle ride...but I think his gigantic confidence is what's keeping him from worrying when he walks a couple guys.
Mid to high 3 ERAs is most probable. True talent low 4 ERA guy who is a good fit for the park.
I can live with that.
Those guys tend to blow about 15% of their save chances. If he gts handed the ball in 45 save chances, he'll probably blow 7 of them...not horrid.