Q.  What do we know about Peguero?

A.  Just what the scouts tell us.  Which has been -- for public consumption anyway -- long on vague, FKey7 platitudes and short on specifics.

They do tell us that Peguero is the best in the Dominican, that he'd have gone top-10 in a US ammy draft, etc.  That's nothing to sneeze at.

Remember:  the older the player, the more the sabermetrician rules.  The younger the player, the more the scout rules.  A sabermetrician wasn't going to know anything about the 17-year-old ARod, whereas a scout isn't going to be able to tell Bill James much about Adrian Gonzalez.

Neither SSI nor anybody else, save the int'l scouts, is going to be able to "analyze" Peguero's performances.

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Q.  What were those performances?

A.  Peguero hit .338/.492/.879 in the Dominican Prospects League in 17 games. 

Which provides the hint of an an answer to G-Money's worry about Peguero's willingness to take a walk.  Peguero walked once for every two hits he got:  a 100-walk pace.

For what that's worth.

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Q.  Peguero was 16 when he did this?  How old was everybody else?

A.  The rest of the league was mostly 16 and 17, though it ranged from 15-20.

Dominican ballplayers are certainly older than US high school kids, in terms of time spent on a diamond ... although their technique is supposed to be laughable much of the time.  Lotta kids down there have nothing else to do.

Peguero hit .340/.500/.900 in a league that was, maybe, the equivalent of a California HS invitational.

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Q.  What is MLB's track record, as it pertains to the #1 international signing each year?

A.  Not that great. 

Here's a Jim Callis interview in which he spells out the specifics, that most huge Latin America signings have turned out to be nothing.

BA's Ben Badler and John Manuel have done a lot of research recently into the history of international amateur bonuses, putting together top 10 lists for both Latin America and the Far East. The results aren't encouraging.

Six of the Latin Americans have had at least five years to develop, and Cabrera ($1.8 million from the Marlins in 1999) is the only one who has been able to carve out a role as a big league regular, let alone a star. The others are Wily Mo Pena ($2.4 million, Yankees, 1999), Joel Guzman ($2.25 million, Dodgers, 2001), Jackson Melian ($1.6 million, Yankees, 1996), Ricardo Aramboles ($1.52 million, Yankees, 1998) and Willy Aybar ($1.4 million, Dodgers, 2000). Melian and Aramboles didn't even make it to the majors.

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Q.  So if the very highest-paid Latin youngsters haven't been stars, then what about the rest of them?

A.  If you went back and studied every (say) #4 overall pick in the June draft, you'd find like four ML stars, three regulars and 13 disappointments.

But that doesn't mean that the top 10 overall picks in the ammy draft don't bear a lot of fruit.

You could say the same thing about the last ten (say) #3 overall picks.  Hey, Jeff Clement has never even become a major league regular... we put the bar real high for these 17-year-olds.  They're prospects.

It's misleading to say "the #3 picks have only become stars 25% of the time" ... hey, the first half of the first round is where you get a LOT of current stars in the bigs.

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Big money going to Latin America bears a lot of fruit .... but, generally, it might be better to spread the money around 3-4 kids, than to make one huge signing.

It's like having the #11, #18, #27 and #32 picks in the draft vs. the #5.  The odds are with the guy with lots of picks.  Exact same thing here.

The M's just landed the equivalent of a #10 overall pick.  That's not a guarantee, but hey, you're talking about the best teenage Latin signing.  I'll take it.

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