1
that the speed gun for the game was a little slow? It only clocked Lowe at 93-95 or is that more him still shaking off the rust?
Sound the Alarm 2
Q. What do you mean, the M's can't get complacent?
A. Bill James isn't the HAL-9000 computer, and he isn't always right. But he does have a unique history-coprocessor on the motherboard, and on Geoff Baker Live he was quite down on the M's chances in 2010.
For one thing, teams that improve by as much as the M's did in 2009 need "consolidation" years. You don't leap way ahead, and then leap way ahead again the next year. Very rare.
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Q. But the M's have all different personnel.
A. Every team, quoth James, that goes from 100 losses to 85 wins, has 25 :- ) different players. They still need consolidation, because of broadband inertia.
James saith "they won 85 games last year and they weren't really very good. They had one starting pitcher." He asserts, by implication, that Washburn and Vargas were products of the DER and park. He asserts correctly.
...........
This team looked oddly flat the last two days, playing much too relaxed. Liddi snagged a DP short-hop, fed to Tuiasosopo, and Tui took about 9 years to bring his right hand from his hip up to his mitt, find the laces, and toss the ball over (late) to Garko. Who whiffed on it,knee-high.
Not an isolated incident.
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Q. But the M's have Lee.
A. Yes, quoth James, "and that helps, but they'll have to score 150 more runs than they did last year" to catch the Angels of 2010...
150 more runs?! That's without Branyan, who OPS+'ed 160 in the first half last year.
...........
SSI ain't sayin' the M's can't contend. But they sure as shootin' can't ignore emerging problems with their pitching. Check that, continuing problems with their pitching.
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Q. Anything else?
A. There's a bit of a hidden land mine here, in that we are assuming that Rob Johnson's hyper-low CERA was bogus in 2009.
It might have been, but what if it wasn't? RJ's health and Moore's talent will make RJ the #2 catcher, albeit in a job share. What if Johnson was a big, hidden part of the 2009 success, post-Washburn/Bedard?
We don't know that Moore won't have issues calling games.
...............
As James constantly reminds, the bulk of a quality ML player's value is in being average... this team is about to get a graphic illustration of that fact...
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Q. Dr's R/X?
A. He hangs up the phone, right after Thursday's game, calls Jarrod Washburn, and gives him what he wants.
AND ... a-n-d ... Dr. D starts stretching Shawn Kelley out to be his 2010 Ramiro Mendoza, Steve Karsay style swing man. Dr D is just lucky that he has such a picture-perfect candidate for the role.
If that leaves us with too much pitching when Bedard gets back, we'll apologize later. :- ) We're not saying that the M's staff is sunk because of a lousy couple weeks in Arizona, but our 3-4-5 starters were never any ball of fire to begin with.
Let's hope the M's are proactive about their BOR. The scouts say "you can beat Seattle - shut down their lineup and rock the back of their rotation." Right now the scouts are right.
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Be Alarmed. Be Very Alarmed,
Dr D
Comments
2
I think it *was* 2 mph slow.
Even allowing for that, both Snell and RRS were throwing very tasty fastballs.
After a decade or three, you don't absolutely need the radar gun to tell whether a pitch is getting on the hitters. The gun did look a bit slow the last two nights, but RRS' stuff was mush. And the hitters were reacting to Snell's FB with extreme comfort :- ) which isn't a good sign, considering how sharp his slider was.
Just my $0.02 - I could easily be wrong.
3
RRS had a dead arm early last season as well. Its possible we may have to give him a "warm-up" assignment in AAA if his velocity doesn't return near the end of spring training.
The lack of quality BOR starters is a clear hole on this team (and has been even before ST exploited it). We don't have the offense to consistently win games when Felix and Lee aren't pitching and RRS isn't healthy.
We need one more starter at minimum (Washburn). If RRS isn't right, we might even need two.
4
Is that his velocity has never done anything OTHER than frazz in and out.
When his fastball's hopping, the deception on his offspeed makes him really tough. But at what point do you just concede the fact that he's never shown a consistent fastball?
5
Also, its starting to get less attention.. but that Lopez-Figgins experiment needs to end.
Having these guys "learn" a new position during the season could potentially cost us 10-15 runs. I see no logic in the move, since at this point it has to be pretty evident that there isn't going to be any defensive gain with the switch.
6
Though I personally am not deterred yet.
Zduriencik was asked how long the experiment would continue. He said, both Figgins and Lopez are so comfortable at their original positions, that the test can continue up until the end of March with few negatives associated.
7
Which is why you can't "depend" on 200 IPs from him. I've been saying this during the offseason as well but for me RRS+Bedard may or may not get 160-180 IPs combined. You can't have unproven low-upside scrubs eating up 45-50% of the inning in your rotation.
The way I see the rotation is:
1) Felix
2) Lee
3) RRS + Bedard + Scrub
4) Scrub
5) Scrub
Nearly half of the starting innings from from scrubs on a team that needs to lead the league in ERA again is way too many. We need at least one more starter.
8
No harm in trying I guess, though I'd like to switch them back to their original positions a few games before opening day to get them back in the groove.
If they aren't looking like naturals in 10 days, the experiment needs to end.
9
I think the way this team holds its' pitching together is by signing Washburn IMMEDIATELY, getting Kelley out to 2-3 inning reliever skill and keeping Texeira on the roster as a second long swing man to ease the load on the back two starters.
Washburn can at least pitch us deep into games...he's unlikely to be FANTASTIC, but you can bet on a nice cushy 4 ERA and 180 innings...we NEED THOSE 180 INNINGS! Even once Bedard is back.
You know what else I would seriously consider? I would seriously consider BULLPENNING Rowland-Smith if his velo doesn't come up and I mean in the next couple of starts. My rotation, post-Washburn-signing would be Hernandez/Lee/Washburn/Snell/Vargas with Fister in the wings if Snell falters and I'd have RRS working long relief until his arm doesn't suck...that bullpen would be: Aardsma, League, Lowe, Kelley, Rowland-Smith, Texeira, and White early in the year and lose one of the bottom three guys later in the year when we go up to 5 benchies.
Also...Garko's half-hearted and out-of-shape-looking defense at first earns him a demotion to AAA in lieu of the tail-on-fire Sweeney so he can work on improving his work ethic, his physical conditioning and his glove. Garko better darned well get the friggin' message..this club doesn't tolerate loafing around even in spring training. We won last year because no one put up with laziness...that bought Betancourt a seat on the pine and eventually a ticket to baseball Hades (Kansas City). Garko played LAZY today...that's inexcusable...and he's not the only one.
And I agree with taro. My projections currently feature Figgins at second and Lopez at third, but I would much rather see that put back to the way it was...I much preferred the other alignment.
10
When was the last time M's fans pushed the panic button mid-March? I love this (absolutely not sarcasm)!
It's early yet, Doc. The Monster's hand only began to twitch after everyone had given up and left the room.
I am going to reread your First Look series and keep my ears peeled for the Yummy Sound :)
11
Because Zduriencik has raised our expectations. Not just because we played well last year...but because we're playing like dung right now for the exact kinds of reasons we did NOT play like dung last year...and Zduriencik has us believing the team shouldn't put up with it. Not only that...but we've found our killer instincts again at least in the blog-o-sphere. We expect championships again...not just competitiveness.
12
That if you bullpenned him as when he first came up, whether we wouldn't get the 9K version back?
He might even be an interesting closer candidate. He's got the personality.
13
at least at SSI.
Question is whether you'd have enough infielders?
14
and no doubt the expectations are up, but just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're NOT out to get you :- )
15
...to sign Garland doesn't look quite so stupid now. Right, Matt?
I know, I'm evil.
Lonnie
16
Like Billy Martin.
17
So yes...you'd have enough infielders.
Against a left handed pitcher, move Jose Lopez to first and play Tui at second. Against a righty, Kotchman at first, Lopez at second.
18
I still hate Garland. Sorry Lonnie, but you're targeting the wrong arm. We don't need a TWO YEAR MOR starter...we need one-year fillers...Washburn is a better choice.
19
I wonder what the disconnect (if there is one at all) is between Capt. Jack's thinking and SSI's regarding Wash and the BOR...
Doc mentioned that Bill James, IIRC, cited a kind of roster stagnation as a possible starting point to begin to explain the "consolidation season" phenomenon - a club owes a player leeway due to their success the season prior.
Jack Z could have picked up both Wash and Branyan on the cheap, due to their relative loyalty to and enthusiasm for this team, but decided against it. Why? If you sign them cheap enough you can always dump them if they are not performing, right?
My interpretation would be that this is to combat roster stagnation and complacency. My guess would be that, in Z's mind, spirited battles for the last roster spots are preferable to signing an honored vet to whom the club owes some performance leeway. The MLB vets Z brought in this offseason are not those to whom Z or Wak owes anything.
I thought you would be more excited about the extreme Stars and Scrubs approach Z is taking, Doc :)
20
IIRC, Branyan was offered a good deal - turned it down, because he wanted a multi-year guarantee -- and THEN Z went out and snagged Kotchman and Garko, (obviously viewing Carp as insufficient). From where I sit the sentiment that Z could've had Branyan cheap is rewriting history. It wasn't until after it was clear the market had vanished the Branyan finally signed a cheap deal - (and even that includes a vesting option - IIRC).
As for Washburn -- did I miss where he signed with someone? Did he tell someone here what his contract demands are? I seem to recall him discussing 2009 being the final year he was gonna play - (until he posted a sub-3.00 ERA with Seattle). Of course, when he re-opened future playing as an option, I seem to recall that being before he imploded with Detroit.
My question is this -- if EVERY team in the majors always needs pitching, (a standard ... slightly hyperbolic axiom) -- then if it is such a slam dunk that Z could have Washburn -- WHY wasn't he signed by any of the other 29 teams prior to ST beginning?
The final question I have is this: Does anyone here know what each SP that has gone out there was intending to work on each outing? I certainly don't. I think there is an assumption that we're seeing 100% effort out of these guys -- when in fact, ST is routinely a time for pitchers to work on new patterns, get loose, ease into things.
What I know is that on May 21st, 2008, Washburn was 2-6 with a 6.99 ERA and every Ms fan who could watch the games was convinced that he was ***NEVER*** under any circumstance going to be a viable major league pitcher for the rest of his natural life.
Me? All I can do is shake my head and remember the gushing over how great Jaku (5.32 ERA) was going to be after his stellar Spring.
Doc is often the temperate voice going against the lemming hordes plunging off the cliffs of enthusiam. If there is a niche for my own ramblings - it is that I instinctively factor in "what is going on in this guys HEAD" into my analyses. During a season, one can at least assume that players are trying to win. That assumption cannot be made during ST. Outside of the long-shot rookies, I don't presume to know what is any players mind during ST. The guys like Tui, Carp, Fister ... THESE guys are doing everything to compete at full-out 100% levels. They HAVE to.
In Atlanta, the glory years were mostly where the Big Three could work on their sand game, while the 47 auditioners for the bullpen actually competed.
Final week of ST? THAT is when I think it might be reasonable to think eyes-on analysis might be useful (to someone not on the coaching staff, who has some idea of what a given pitcher is working on that day).