Q. So Ian Snell threw better on Tuesday night?
A. Much better. He had 4 strikeouts, 2 walks, and 0 homers. He had 2 earned runs in 6 innings, so an easy Quality Start. He had a good number of swinging strikes, like 8 or 10, and was ahead in the count more. One more strikeout and he'd have had a 5/5 Shandler PQS. It was easily his most effective outing with the Mariners that I remember.
This occurred against a lineup with four lefthand hitters.
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Q. Remind me again why he had 21 walks and 16 strikeouts coming into the game?
A. It had looked to me like he threw two speeds: 91-94 on the fastball, and his change-slider both clocked pretty consistently about 83.
The change & slider, same velos, had very little bite, very little sales and so Snell was pretty much just pounding FB and showing a AA-quality offspeed game.
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Q. What were those 'Gil Meche Keys to Revival' again?
A. Gil Meche got good when he 1) started using a slow 70's curve a lot, 2) threw a lot less fastballs and 3) improved his command a little.
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Q. How did Snell do on those things?
A. 1) Snell did not separate his slowest velo's any more than he ever had.
2) On Monday, Snell threw a higher % of fastballs than usual.
3) Snell improved, by a ton, his command -- of offspeed pitches.
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Q. You can't mean he improved with some other doctor's prescription?
A. Yep. :- ) Hey, medical science is evolving. State-of-the-art treatment is a moving target.
What Snell actually did, was throw his slider at the bottom of the strike zone rather than at the top of it. This was the first time we'd seen him do so, and it was a revelation. Kept down at the knees, it bit much harder and fooled the batters consistently.
SEVERAL times we saw Snell throw the slider at the thighs, have it bite down below the knees and the hitter miss badly. Snell did this both over the plate, and in the low-away Beltre fish zone.
Go to MLB gameday, check the Carlos Quentin at-bat in the 4th inning, and you'll see what we mean. Snell did it to him several times in a row and it never lost effectiveness.
In earlier games, Snell threw the FB low and the slider - change high -- both of which guarantee contact by the batter. In this game, he threw the slider low and the FB (sometimes) high. The result was a different pitcher.
The change also had much better arm action and tail on it, I thought. Chris Getz gave him a real garbage swing on a 78 change way outside.
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In previous games, Snell had trouble missing a bat even a single time -- last time out, he had 3-of-100 pitches missed. This time, Snell had three different ways to get swings and misses.
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Later in the game, he had guys freezing on 89 fastballs. A few times late he reared back and fired 95 fastballs way past hitters.
This was the first game in which we saw a pitcher with some potential to win in the AL.
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Q. How was the lead plant foot?
A. Forgot to watch until the 6th inning, but the toe-to-3B flaw that Jeff Sullivan discovered looked no better to me. Snell threw with the improved command despite torquing around a locked front knee and hip.
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Q. How could he have improved command, then?
A. He wasn't ripping his head around the corner in shrill fashion, the way he was earlier. Ian's head was calm and he was finishing nose-to-leather.
Guess here is, the early nerves to impress his new team are gone and now he's in the grind. The relative calmness may have led to the less-shrill body language, quieter head, and improved slider-change command.
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Q. Prospectus from here?
A. Snell is back on the map a little bit for me. If Adair can fix the front foot, well, the head fixed itself once he calmed down, and we finally saw (some measure of) the stuff that people kept claiming he had.
Keep the slider down, move the 91-95 FB up-and-down, fix the mechanics, and maybe the kid can recapture some of the earlier dominance.
Cheers,
Dr D
Mechanics were still not good...pitch types were still not particularly impressive...and the White Sox strike out a LOT. He had a good game by having unusually good command. That's not a good permanent recipe for success.
Literally. This may have helped.
It's like the Douglas Adams theory of how to fly. Be suddenly distracted just before you hit the ground, and off you go. Snell's delivering a slider to the plate, and just before he releases the ball, a wave of nausea distracts him. Swing and a miss.
Exceptional Command: That to me sounds like an absolutely fantastic recipe for sustained success. That pretty much sums up the careers of Maddux and Glavine. (Of course, I think you're implying that his command was far above his normal ability, so we shouldn't expect regular repeats).
Honestly, while you and Doc can turn pitchers into Lego blocks all you want, (and I'll read every fascinating word), my opinion on Snell is simple. He DOES have exceptional stuff. He showed it big time in the minors -- and has had stretches in the majors where it was very much in evidence. But, "Dominating" Snell vanishes and is replaced by his evil twin, "marshmallow Snell", far too regularly.
In truth, having seen him pitch in the NL back when he was truly on the top of his game, I can say confidently, nobody in Seattle has actually seen what Snell is CAPABLE of ... yet. At the top of his game? He had "stuff" not far removed from what Morrow has, (not saying same pitches, but same effectiveness with his best stuff). At his best, Snell starts his pitches on the edges and they run away -- so when "on", he should run high O-Swing numbers. When "on", Snell is VERY capable of making hitters look foolish -- DECEPTION is key to his success.
That said, I think Snell's big hurdle isn't physical, but mental. I think he's a bit of a headcase, but not in the easy-to-spot manner of a Jeff Weaver. He doesn't melt down when he gives up a hit or an error is made. He's more like VERY young Smoltz, where he simply gets bored and his mind wanders, and he screws up, and then he's aware that he wasn't paying attention, and tries too hard to focus. (And I should add that any psychoanalyzing of a guy I've never spoken to is obviously 150% conjecture). But, the point here is that Snell's performance behaves like MOOD SWINGS. All pitchers have consistency issues. But when Snell is happy and comfortable, he becomes a BEAST. Guess what. He ain't happy or comfortable in Seattle, (yet). And his downside is that he may never be.
Y'know how Washburn was an utterly different guy on the mound when he no longer had to throw to Johjima? THAT is the kind of night/day difference Snell is capable of, if he ever gets his head in the right place. At this point, however, I think some of the underlying problem is he's likely been kibbutzed so much (because his talent IS so high), that he likely feels like he's been nibbled to death by ducks with the advice from all the coaches he's been thru. I think his absolute dominance in AAA this year, (a period where he stated he was HAPPY), was likely due to the reality that he'd already been thru that ringer so there wasn't much for those guys to do. They likely mostly left him alone ... and he THRIVED.
There's a point where the only useful advice for a struggling pitcher really is, "Don't think meat, just throw."
...if I thought Snell could SUSTAIN the command he showed last night...I'd be with you. I don't think that until he does it like 20 times in a row though. Unlike Fister, who has shown a long running record of having good command...Snelling has had ot fight to show AVERAGE command.
But I'll side with San-man on the question of control.
The pure stuff, for some reason, looked much better for Snell after he threw it in the right spots. Not all that many pitchers where I buy into the "curve is better when he keeps it down" cliche, but Snell is one of them.
Snell deserves the chance to get his mechanics fixed -- notably the foot plant and locked front knee -- and then let's see where his command is. Perfectly willing to work the project until the fixes are in.
... how would you describe his pitches, 1-2-3-4 or whatever, when he's right? Which ones do you see as strike-three pitches?
but no doubt being sick robbed him of the 'shrillness', as I call it, and led to the quieter head and improved command.
including from Blowers in the booth, whose on-field experience I respect.
But what is the explanation -- seriously -- for 21 walks and 16 strikeouts, then? For six games he hasn't fooled ANYbody.
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... like we say, if you've seen him a lot in the NL Sandy, that's great. Would like to hear what this specialness consists of.
The slider, when at the knees, was better, but still not exactly a Jered Weaver slider by any stretch. The FB is 91-93 and he can reach back for 95 once in a while, but that's Gil Meche.
So, am still trying to figure out the lad....
Conceptually...excellent command is a good way to succeed as a pitcher. Snell has NEVER HAD excellent command. In his good years, he had solid but unspectacular command and great stuff leading to a lot of swings and misses. This year...he's shown absolutely ZERO command...and still great stuff, but limited because of the lack of command. Sandy is the first one to caution people not to react to single starts or even a handful of starts. I'm advising caution...one start with anomalously good command is fine...but if he's unlikely to repeat that good command...he's unlikely to be a good pitcher.
Yes, it's important not to read too much into a single start. But, as for Snell "never" showing command ...
Minor league aggregate line: 8.9-K/9; 2.4-BB/9; 0.6-HR/9
AAA season (age 23 - 112-IP); 8.4-K/9; 1.8-BB/9; 1.1-HR/9
In point of fact, from his first day in the minors, Snell *NEVER* walked more than 3 guys per 9 in ANY season, (excluding the 37 IP this year, when he had a 3.1, but did that with 47 Ks and 0.96 ERA).
In 2007, he managed a 2.9 BB/9 rate in the majors. Honestly, go and look at Snell's 2007 numbers and compare them to Felix in 2008. (And yes, Snell had the advantage of NL vs. AL, so I'm not saying he was talented as Felix). But, I am saying that the difference between Felix *ONE YEAR AGO* versus Snell two years ago was VERY, VERY small.
In point of fact, the REASON I picked Snell back in '05/'06 as the next great pitcher was BECAUSE of the 1.8 walk rate he posted in AAA that season.
Ironically, I think Snell's problems probably are related to his mechanical flaws - but not in the way the technical perfectionists think. My belief is that once upon a time, he had EXCEPTIONAL control despite all of his flaws. And I think the Pirate organization, (well known for screwing up pitching talent), has tweaked him into a complete mental meltdown. I think he spent all of 2008 going up to the plate thinking of the 400 bits of advice about all the things he's DOING WRONG.
If he pitched well the other night because he was sick, that makes my point. Under the weather, athletes STOP thinking and just let their talent take over.
What I saw when Snell was "on" back in '06 and '07 was an ability to make EVERY right hand hitter look like Beltre with his slider away. But, then he'd throw the FB in the same spot, and have them completely locked up. IMO, you want to fix him --- you pick one, AND ONLY ONE thing about him that you want to tweak, and concentrate solely and exclusively on that. The point is actually not even about getting to fix that, but to quiet his mind and simplify things for him, so he can allow his talent to re-emerge. MAYBE, he actually gets that one thing fixed eventually. But, I am firmly convinced that on a physical/mental assessment of where Snell's problems lie, I'd bet money it's 85% mental, and only 15% physical. (Which is why his upside is so huge, but the odds of ever seeing that is very low).
...had excellent looking command results...but given his failure to get the low walk rate to extend to the majors (even in his solid seasons, he was a 3-walk guy and over his career, he's been a 3.8-walk guy...which is league average command), I believe a lot of the low-walk totals in the minors were caused by him throwing a buttload of fastballs by not-particularly-consistent AAA fodder bats.