........... Hey, did Carp just roll his 18 ?!

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 === Tail-Light Guarantee ===

In which the used-car salesman guarantees the vehicle until --- > he can't see your tail lights any more.  :- )

When we sent Cliff Lee to the Rangers, they sent back Justin Smoak with an eezee-squeezee infomercial guarantee.  He was guaranteed until he walked around the airport corner out of their view.

We mentioned Matt Bush.  While we're on the subject, how about ...

Richie Robnett, who was Billy Beane's first pick in that 2004 draft?

Did you know that 50% of the top 6 picks, in the 2003 draft, never played one game in the majors?  Kyle Sleeth, Chris Lubanski, Ryan Harvey.  The top 6 picks!, the six best players, had to roll 11's on the 1d20, in order to play one game in the majors.

In 2002, two of the top 5 picks never made the majors.  Roll a 9 on the 1d20 to play a game in the Show.  But hold it:  4 of the top 5 were flops, everybody but B.J. Upton, who doesn't thrill the Rays.  The five top picks:  roll a 16 or higher on a 1d20 to be a success in the majors.

In 2001?  Out of the top 17 picks, guess how many ML impact players?  Two of them.  First half of the first round:  roll an 18 on a 1d20 to win.   Say WHAT?

As Matt Farrell told John McClane, you want more?  I can go allllll day long with this shtick.  

...............

You think Baseball America's top 100 lists are going to look a lot different, historically?   Brien Taylor, Todd Van Poppel, Marc Newfield ...

OK, let's look at who they had back in 2006.  eeeeeyyup, Brandon Wood #3 in organized baseball.  Jeremy Hermida #4. Lastings Milledge, Andy Marte, Andy Laroche real high.  

2005 they did pretty well.  But Casey Kotchman, Joel Guzman, Milledge, Marte and Dallas MacPherson are in the top 12.

These BA lists are, in the main, lists that take minor leaguers in hindsight, after their minors careers are nearly over.  Even with a player on the cusp of joining the major leagues, the forecasting is tough.

................

Move the logic forward, and take guys who played fairly well as rookies.  Think you've got them nailed at this point?  Think again.  Jose Lopez made the AL All-Star team in what, his second year?

John Benson used to talk about the Cy Young principle, in which the very best pitcher from the season before was a very .... good bet to be worth less than $10 in roto.  My BABVA team had five good pitchers kick me in the man region.  Francisco Liriano, Phil Hughes, Jeff Neimann, Dallas Braden, and Erik Bedard.  On June 1, 2011, they had negative value.

It would be nice if there were guarantees.  You got that right.

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=== Said All That to Say This Dept. ===

If yer point is, Dr. D don't know for 100% sure what Justin Smoak is going to be, you got a point.

Dr. D don't know, because Jack Zduriencik don't know.  And Eric Wedge don't know.  Also Justin Smoak doesn't know.

You roll your d20 and you take your chances.  When it looks like a kid needs a 16 or better on the d20, maybe you can get him for Erik Bedard.  When some slugging 1B somewhere needs only a 6 or better, you play Cliff Lee to roll that one.

Will Justin Smoak some day play a full season and bat 120 OPS+ or better?  The Dungeon Master bids him roll a 4 or better to make that save.