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"CELEBRITY HOUSE MAP," Arizona Edition

In spring training so far, Ackley has "beaten the house."  He has been on base more often than the pitchers have gotten him out.   Of every Mariner hitter, Ackley is having the best run.

You volunteer, "this is only twenty-odd at bats."  Dr. D invites you to take three breaths and think about whether there is anyone, literally anyone reading this, one person?, to whom the "SSS" (sic) would now be a fresh add.  "SSS," in the Seattle blog-o-sphere, has about the same informational content as "this post will be typed in the English language."  Do we assert that?  But you can't find a thread, anywhere, in which some amigo does not bring this up as if inventing the idea.

:: chuckles  ::

Major league teams decide roster spots -- and playing time in left field -- not based on 25 dice rolls in Strat-O-Matic.  Teams make decisions based on watching swing holes and new pitches and HOW a player is achieving success.  A .526 OBP might draw your eyes to a player so that you can ask, "has this guy patched a swing hole, maybe?"

Yeah, the discussion is a bit of a pet peeve.  Bah humbug.  The "SSS" assessment is delivered on a daily basis with an authoritative gravity, yet delivered with a confidence that belies the way it is so consistently misapplied.  It's a microcosm for the problems with WAR Absolutism itself.  Let's start thinking, shall we?  Why use one camera angle when four are available?

/gripe

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Mike Zunino has a 1:1 EYE ratio going.  He's only struck out once this year.  This might cause you to ask why.

One possible explanation:  no important reason.  This is the most common reason.  But a 60% probable answer does not cause you to sniff at the other 40% of the pie chart.

Another possible explanation:  maybe he's got a wider stance, is keeping his weight back more (Wade Boggs' Weight and Wait), and is letting the ball get deeper before lunging out at it.  You've got to decide which one ... if you're Lloyd McClendon, that is.

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BACK LEG SPECIALS, Dept.

In April 2012, SSI had moshed off Bill James' hitting theory to declare Seager a Best Bet.  The secret ingredient to this shtick had lay in Seager's pulled fly balls.  (And now many baseball people are trying to get Seager to launch the ball less, so he can hit .290 ....)

Here's the punch line.  Dustin Ackley has, in the last 3 months, throttled past Seager in his pulled fly balls, at least over this short stretch.  He's been even more dangerous, when pulling the ball in the air, then Kyle Seager is.  Tony Blengino gave us some rousing stats on it:

Time period	Pulled fly balls	Results	SLG
Apr-Aug 2014	11	7 HR, 2 2B, 2 outs	2,909
1H 2014	2
July-Aug 2014	9
Note:		11 of 11 pulled fly balls were "low liners," vastly more dangerous

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Blengino, curiously, capped Dustin Ackley's ceiling at a .425 SLG.  If everything breaks right for the #2 draft pick, he has a shot to be ... mediocre?  Say what?

But Blengino, who has no great wish to see Zduriencik products succeed, allowed that "Ackley is learning to selectively pull for power," something that was impossible with his old swing (which did not cover the outside edge of the plate).

Chicks do dig the long ball.  Umpires appreciate a well-executed "productive out" and a 2-1 game.  Cindy don't.  :- )

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Okay, think you can take it from there?  If Ackley ever DID "learn to pull," well, you see how dangerous he is when he does.  Like Seager.

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AND IF YOU ADD A LOVELY SCATTERCHART ?!

But Ackley has things that Kyle Seager does not:

When he hits line drives they leave vapor trails - to all fields.  See Blengino's article again:  Ackley spent July-August hitting line drives as hard as Paul Goldschmidt hits them.  (Well ... "as productively" would be a more precise way to characterize it.)  You've watched him do this, right?

And without any debate warranted or even possible:  Dustin Ackley has considerably better HIT ability than Kyle Seager has.  He is simply more talented at covering a pitch.  ... even though he has been broken, his contact % and SwStr% is considerably better than Seager's.  You've watched him do this, right?

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Let's Visit the "SHOW ME" State, Ma

We're all thinking of Justin Smoak.  Mariner golden boys don't come through.  That's a visceral reaction.  You think your head is running things until your feelings show up and tell you who's really the boss.

But ... you might as well say that Percy Harvin rules out all blockbuster trades for the Seahawks into perpetuity.  The feeling doesn't hold up to serious scrutiny.

......

So Zduriencik has blown off Jesus Montero and kept his hooks into Rickie Weeks, in an obvious effort to stimulate Dustin Ackley into showing what he's got.

From Dustin Ackley's first at-bat in Safeco, Dr. D has advised in a melancholy way that --- > we're going to have a couple of seasons of #2 Pick production from Ackley, and then Scott Boras is going to cheerfully escort him out of Seattle and onto the Magical Mystery Greed Tour.  Even if/when Ackley becomes Fred Lynn or Bobby Abreu, it's going to be a bittersweet run.

But the Seahawks don't need Jimmy Graham to give them seven years.  They only need an epic year or maybe two.  If Ackley or Miller or Morrison or Zunino pull a Carlos Guillen, the rest of the division is in trouble.

BABVA,

Dr D

Ackley photo:  Keith Allison