Q.  What if a guy like Luke French develops a plus changeup?  Does that change the equation?

A.  It doesn't, no. 

For a guy throwing 86 with a plus curve, a 79 change doesn't really mean that much. It tends to play (for this template of pitcher) like a hung curveball. Not totally, but to some extent.

You saw this in April with Ryan Rowland-Smith.  RRS *did* have a nice hook, and an 85 fastball, and he *did* throw a pretty decent 78 change.  The result was strawberry jelly on the pitcher's mound.

....................

Jamie Moyer had a great hook, and a VICIOUS change (maybe THE best in ML baseball) and even he needed super-precise location at 87 to succeed.  Without location, even the 1996-2001 Moyer would have scuffled to stay in a rotation.

Moyer's fastball was a "55", solid to plus, fastball when you combine velo with location.

Even! Then!, Moyer said that he only succeeded because of ML hitters' macho in never wanting a FB thrown by them.

Bernie Williams was a non-macho player who tormented Moyer by looking offspeed first, reacting FB, and hit like .500 against Moyer.

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Q.  What's this thing, "In Between"?

A.  There is a point, with a fastball that commands no respect ... at which hitters just SIT IN BETWEEN.

They keep the hands back as if guessing offspeed, read the pitch whatever it is, and hammer it.

When the hitter can guess CB, react FB, and turn on the FB, you are in huuuuuuuuuge trouble my friend.

It says here that hitters will do this to French on a game-in, game-out basis, but we'll see.

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Q.  So why is Luke French in the big leagues, whereas some other AA pitcher is not?

A.  Well...

Where Luke French DOES stand apart from a billion double-A lefties is here:  French throws a curve ball so good, that hitters can guess curve ball, get curve ball, and still not do much with it.   THAT is the 12" wooden shield that keeps French alive where some other AA pitcher would get immolated by the dragon.

Don't get carried away:  *nobody* throws a curve ball more than 30%, 40% of the time.  But the more French throws it, the more I allow :- ) for him to get by as a #4-5 SP.

I worry that ML insiders are so hypnotized by the beauty of French's curve ball, that they're overlooking what we're noting here.  Naaaahhhhhh...

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Q.  Do you allow for his FB being not as bad as y'think?

A.  Give him two games to change my mind.  How's that fer square :- )

You have to deep-sea dive quite a ways down the velocity list, like 95% down it, to get to French, and then there are a lot of names around his that won't be in the majors long.

The run value on his FB is terrible.

The eye tells you that he ain't going to make hitters respect his FB.

..................

But for all that, you know what?  A better man than me -- the guy who traded Jarrod Washburn for him -- thinks that French can pitch in the majors.  So my working assumption is that there's some light bulb here that we don't have turned on.  Good location?  Or potentially good location?  Or what?

Here is a neat little article that spells out how a slow FB might become effectively average.  Not sure these brownie points apply to Luke French, but if we're missing something, this is where it's bein' missed.

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Q.  Finish on a little more upbeat note, can'cha?

A.  No problemo.  Maurico Robles.  Money guarantees us that he's a 20-year-old Erik Bedard.  >:-}

Give y'the last word,

Dr D