My little win calculation below revealed an important flaw in the current defensive scheme that we're supposed to be riding to cover for a weak offense.  Our rotation is scary with a lot of potential for sucking chest wounds below SP3 despite a lot of star power at the top.  If the "big rotation - 4 releivers - superb defense" game plan is to win us the west, we need a better 4th starter and probably a better third starter.  Not only would acquiring another plus arm push Doug Fister and his average-at-best projection into the replacement level substitute bin either as a spot starter or as a middle reliever...but it would take Luke French completely off the roster, and slide RRS and his average-solid likely outcome down a notch.  I other words, adding a big arm would do more than just upgrade us from (say) Fister to the new guy...it would upgrade the bullpen, the back of the rotation, and the replacement level pitchers used in the likely event of injuries in the rotation.  This continues the discussion we have been having in the previous thread regarding the hidden value of improving your replacement players.

I would say we are exactly one more arm away form a world series caliber rotation.

Is Ben Sheets the kind of guy you want to play aggressively to get?  I think we need a Dr. D POTD on the man...but for now, I'll run a quick exec summary on Sheets.

• 31 years old in 2010
• Missed all of 2009 after elbow surgery (not Tommy John, and not a continuation of his previous injury history, which mostly consisted of shoulder soreness, though I don't recall off the top of my head his shoulder ever actually being torn)
• Threw 22, 17, 24 and 31 starts 2005-2008 - the injuries have been a CONSTANT battle in the most recent years - perhaps due to overuse in his younger years
• Through all of the injuries, he's maintained (when pitching) +++++++++++++ command (consistently around 4 K/BB), though in the most recent seasons, his K rate has dropped - some speculation here as to the root cause of the lower K rate, though my money would be on a slightly less crisp breaking ball
• Velocity, believe it or not, has not really been down in any of his most recent seasons (consistently pecking away at 92.5 mph with the capacity to dial it up to 96 when he needs it)
• Velocity is still there even now.  Throwing at 90% for team scouts this past Tuesday, he was reporting free and easy and pounding away at 92.
• Classic two-pitch pitcher.  Fastball effortlessly thrown into a teacup pitch after blinkin' pitch, curveball with nasty late break thrown very hard (85 mph is hard for a curve)
• Again...while throwing Tuesday, Sheets showed off the curve and one Mariner scout called him "the same old Sheets" and said the club was very interested indeed.
• In all of those partial seasons, Sheets piled up 12.7, 14.7, 9.0 and 20.0 million dollars in value by fangraphs.
• Mechanically, he doesn't suffer from the inverted W, there's no sign of falwed footwork or a bad plant leg (there couldn't be with his outstanding command), and his delivery LOOKS smooth and easy.  I don't understand wy he's always hurt.

So I'll put forward the question to Doc and the rest of the readership here.  Does it make sense to splurge on a guy who you think you can bank for ace caiber performances when he's healthy and who you aren't counting on for more than 20 starts?  The team obviously thought it was worth a lot of money to get Harden (and got outbid by the Rangers offering a second year option), and Sheets is a pretty similar (but slightly less exciting template) kind of gamble.

What do you make of his injury history?  Does he have any chance to stay healthy all year?  Can he sustain his stuff over a full season?

With rumors flying that the bidding has narrowed to the Mariners, the desperate Mets and maaaaybe the Rangers...what do we all think?