Q. Is it possible that Pete Carroll could be a great NFL coach in this reincarnation?
A. The great coaches that I watched in the 1970's and 1980's ... they didn't fail in Coaching Job 1 and then come back and make the HOF in Coaching Job 2.
Don Shula was a great N-F-L coach before the merger, and then took over the Dolphins too. Tom Landry won with one team. Chuck Noll built the Steelers and then basked in the glory.
Dan Reeves, Chuck Knox, Bud Grant, Mike Holmgren, Joe Gibbs, Bill Cowher, even Marty Schottenheimer and Bill Walsh and Jimmy Johnson -- when did these guys ever fail (before they hit 60 years of age)? Never.
Those HOF'ers never failed at any time, and arguing from that logic, you might wonder whether Carroll's first ho-hum stints in the AFC East rule him out. Maybe Carroll's early defeats prove that he isn't cut from top cloth?
I don't think of HOF, or HOF-type, NFL coaches as guys who gradually learn their jobs and then jell at age 50 or 60. I think of great coaches as guys who never lost a game of H-O-R-S-E in their lives.
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That's becoming outdated, though.
Actually, we notice that in the 21st century -- as the sport progresses and it becomes harder for one Tom Landry to be smarter than everybody else -- you do find some coaches who (1) fail in their first cuts, (2) consolidate, and then (3) dominate later.
Bill Belichick, the prototype Mel Kiper-style 21st century coach, was actually one of those. Belichick got 5 years with the Browns and demonstrated that he couldn't coach yet.
But he took a long time away from head coaching, and when he returned, he was ready, powerflushing Drew Bledsoe for a slow, fat Tom Brady and going to 4 Super Bowls in 7 years.
Mike Shanahan had a horrible failure with the Raiders, but the Broncos gave him a second chance and he started ripping off the 12-win seasons.
Tony Dungy probably won a few too many games with Tampa Bay to go in this category, but I don't think that in the 1990's anybody was predicting that he'd ever have 6 straight 12-win seasons.
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In the 21st century, it may be more possible for coaches to stage Belichick-style career arcs than it was back in my day.
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