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If the market drops out from under Ben Sheets, and he's also available at 1x$6-7MM... who do you sign? The lefty who's shown adaptability to park factors, or the injury prone ace-upside righty?
Ryan Rowland-Smith
=== Ryan Rowland-Smith ===
Hardball Times last week ran an article, Thinking Outside the Strikeout, that recommends a handful of low-K pitchers for fantasy owners to consider. Rowland-Smith heads the list.
As HBT notes, RRS has a 4.78 xFIP in 253 career innings -- but a 3.62 ERA. HBT expects RRS to continue to beat his xFIP by wide margins, because he's a LH flyball pitcher, throwing in an airport, with a very fast OF defense.
That's true, assuming Rowland-Smith continues to be a low-strikeout pitcher (he was at 5.0 last year). It's comforting for M's fans that, due to low walks (only 2.2 last year) and controlled HR's, the rawhide-tough Rowland-Smith figures to get Washburn-type benefits from his context.
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=== LHP's Revisited, Dept. ===
While we're on that, we remember that when Bill Bavasi signed Washburn, many M's fans (including jemanji) were optimistic that Wash-and-the-park would give synergy benefits.
We remember one particularly ferocious debate, after two years of Wash in Safeco, about how brainless D-O-V was for figuring that Washburn would get an hr/f benefit here... :- )
For two-three years, this didn't work out, and most of cyber-Seattle wrote the theory off. But in 2010, the theory came roaring back like a hurricane, as Washburn's HR rate (as well as BABIP, of course) zoomed so low that the entire 4 years looks good, averaged.
Sometimes you need five years of data. You know what I'm sayin'?
...........
So, return to the original Bavasi theory: LHP's, assuming they're competitors and throw lots of strikes, may be able to bank -0.50 to their ERA's on arriving at Safeco.
The defense helps, of course. But it has nothing to do with the 7% hr/f that RRS had last year, and the 4% or whatever that Wash had.
Bring on the lefties. If Washburn himself will sign for six mills, I'll take him.
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=== Higher-K Upside ===
But Rowland-Smith ran 8-9 K's out of the bullpen early on. As well, last year in the second half, he increased his K's from 3.9 first half to 5.4 second half.
Both James and Shandler project RRS to around 6.0 strikeouts in 2010.
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RRS had pretty bad triceps tendinitis most of the year, robbing him of arm strength. If and when he is throwing a live 92 mph, with hop on his FB, then his outstanding curve and quality change will have him striking out 6-7 batters a game ... and in Safeco, you have a 15-game winner.
The question is whether RRS' arm has the zip in it, to maintain that life in the fastball over 180 innings. So far, that's been questionable. But perhaps 2010 is the year in which he has built himself up to where he can sustain 92 mph.
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We do know this. Wok had the tendency to ride RRS an extra 10 pitches last year. I'd be looking at him as a strict 100-pitch guy.
Assuming he's healthy, I see RRS as a Jarrod Washburn type if he's 5.0 / 2.2 / 0.9 again, or a minor star if he gets up to 6 K's. Can his arm deliver 180 innings' worth of live fastballs?
We'll see,
jemanji
Comments
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Why not? They would be cheaper then than any remaining BIG bats and fewer worries about bats without gloves.
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It's all going to depend on what the medical reports look like, and obviously we don't have access to those...
The lack of interest around MLB does not suggest they look good, but the same could be said about Bedard.
I'm a big believer in the idea that a guy like Sheets, as soon as he's had enough R&R, well, he hasn't forgotten how to pitch...
Between Bedard and Sheets, Bedard is the guy you have a working relationship with anyway, has a known good attitude towards the M's, you have VERY thorough medical data, and may be better in Safeco anyway.
Of course, we'd love to see the M's take a flier on Sheets. He had some year a couple years ago with like a 10:1 control ratio. :- ) Here's a good article on Sheets.
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Health is the only question mark for me with RRS.
His pitching style is perfect for Safeco and hes flyball pitcher behind possibly the greatest defensive OF of all time.
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of RRS. In almost every respect I look at this guy and I see Barry Zito. Both guys throw lefty, both have low 90's FBs and killer Hooks. Both guys are Californian / Australian beach / surf bums with that laid back can't rile me up attitude and moxie. Even statistically they are similar. Zito was an true Ace, but he was never overwhelming with the Ks, he was alway between 6 and 7 k/9, which is where I expect RRS to end up when he settles into the meat of his MLB career. In most of the projections I see, and even when I chat about RRS on MC or whatever you usually see an upside with him as being a #3, but I think in many respects we are short selling the kid. Zito was a Cy Young winner, and has pitched approximately a billion innings in his career, and that is where I would put Rockin' Rollin's upside. He has the body for durability and for being and innings eater, and I think he has the arm and repertoire to be at least a #2, if not the #1 type of pitcher that Barry was for several years, especially since he will be a lefty fly baller pitching in Safeco. In fact i think this is the way Wak sees him as well, as evidenced by those 10 extra pitches that Wak would always give him in a start. In start contrast to the way Wak would handle Olsen or Vargas, two guys who he DIDN'T trust thier durability or stuff, seems like he would pull them at 85 90 pitches even if they were going well, or at the first hint of trouble even if it was in the 5th inning. Where as with Ryan it is obvious that Wak trust his stuff and trust that he can throw 110 pitches every five days with no troubles.
No matter what other pitchers we pick up this offseason (even Sheets or Harang) the M's rotation goes: Felix, Lee, RRS #'s1,2, and 3 for me :)