Sandy, as always, provides a crunchy return of serve on the wisdom of signing Branyan. And it's a good thing, too, because it's an IMPORTANT decision for the Mariners. Either way. I'm sure their saber staff will cut this one into a googolplex pieces.
First off, Dr. D is talking a 2-year extension, plus club option with $1-2M buyout, not 3 years hard on the barrelhead. My first post didn't say that. The root cause of this error was that my first post was at 4:00 in the morning. :- ) But as you know, the secondary cause is just that my post was written by a moron.
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Q: BRANYAN ISN'T LIKELY TO HIT WELL IN 2011 AT AGE 35, MUCH LESS IN 2012 AT AGE 36. SEE THE FOLLOWING COMP:
Player - age - OPS
Boone - 32 - .950
Boone - 33 - .801
Boone - 34 - .902
Boone - 35 - .740
Boone - 36 - .639 and done
A: Boone's a good comp in two senses: Gillick-Zduriencik, and the fact that they're both late bloomers. But in comp'ing out Branyan, we want lefty TTO guys, right?
A: Talking not to Sandy, who knows this, but to cyber-Seattle generally: IN MAJOR-LEAGUE BASEBALL, YOU HAVE TO OVERPAY FOR THE LAST YEAR OF A CONTRACT IF YOU WANT TO SIGN THE PLAYER.
The good news is that you get to underpay in the first year.
Look, if a player gives you seasons worth $18M ... $14M ... $9M ... and $0M ... he signs for 4 years / $24M ... why does everybody freak out about the overpay in year four?! Why doesn't the overperformance in year one count?
Listen carefully and you'll hear GM's actually say this. All the time. We knew the last two years would be an overpay, but we wanted to make the run in the first two years.
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Q: BRANYAN WILL PROBABLY DECLINE, AND EVEN IF HE DOESN'T, OLDER PLAYERS ARE INJURY RISKS.
A: Three words: margin of error.
Check it out, kiddies. If Russ Branyan continued to hit at his current pace according to Fangraphs.com, then this season he would be worth
:drumroll:
$23,500,000.
... Branyan has ALREADY earned $7.6M this year! His agent is well aware of this fact. And the question is whether we should give him $9M for the entire next season?
Assuming that Branyan "drops off" to his 2008 levels, he will earn only $5.2M ... in his first 132 AB's. Because that's what Branyan was worth in 2008: $5M -- in one-quarter of a season.
Scale him back to (say) .250/.340/.525 and you're talking a $12-15M player. Players like Raul Ibanez, Russell Branyan, Adam Dunn, and other players with unfair knocks often come at 50 cents on the dollar. That's what we're talking about doing here. Giving Branyan 50 cents on the dollar.
$9M for Branyan, if he hit like THIS, would be 30-40 cents on the dollar. But if he hit like 2007-08, it would still only be 50-60 cents on the dollar.
Let the guy decline. Let him have a terrible last year of the contract. You're still getting a terrific value on the overall deal.
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Q: THE M'S ARE HIP-DEEP IN FIRST BASEMAN/DH TYPES.
A. True dat. Perfectly legit complaint.
ALL major league stars who play 1B and LF are less valuable than stars in the middle of the diamond. Albert Pujols, even, prevents you from exploiting a big bat in the minors.
Branyan takes no more of a value hit, for playing 1B, than do Prince Fielder, Adam Dunn, or Justin Morneau his ownself. You wish they all played center field.
Everybody's hip-deep in 1B candidates, but the M's have a real shortage of players who can actually hit like #4 hitters. Russell Branyan can. I'll take the production.
We're not talking five years. But when Bret Boone suddenly decides to start hitting 37 homers, ya don't flush him after year one. You take three years' worth. ;- )
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The problemo isn't whether the M's are risking a lot, paying (say) 2/$18M plus a club option. The problemo is whether Russell Branyan would accept it. Better hope he does.
Cheers,
Dr D
Sometimes, I think baseball analysis and budget structuring needs to consider that salaries are typically retroactive. You may be paying for the next three years, but realistically, you're overpaying for the future three years while repaying the three previous years you paid in lima beans. This is especially apparent with players that are 5th or 6th year free agents or pre-arbitration buyouts.
A 2-year with a reasonable buyout?
Yeah, I'd consider that for Branyan. (Though I suspect he's going to be begging for a 4-year to get a 3-year -- this will be his one - and only - chance to cash in for his career, after all).
I'm not completely averse to risk. I just believe you need to limit it. You need to recognize past mistakes, (Vidro, Batista), and try to make new mistakes rather than repeat the old.
I think Branyan could be great in 2010. But my worries of 2011 and 2012 and the reality that THOSE are the years that Seattle is most likely hoping to win, is the thing that sets off my alarm bells. It's not even the Branyan choice that becomes dangerous -- it's the "planning to flail" of building foundation blocks that are ALREADY in their decline years that I've seen thwart many, many rebuilding plans.
I don't believe the club has enough young upside players to handle the realities of treading water that comes when your top producers are declining. It takes two upward production moves to net any gain for every downward moving set piece. Ichiro is ALREADY a declining set piece. If you make Branyan #2, then the club needs 4 upwardly tracking bats to push forward.
All that said - it is more about the depth at 1B/DH that makes it more sensible to me to trade Branyan for some upwardly mobile pieces. The club has got plenty of 1B/DH types to look at - and some decent OF talent, too. They are in desperate need of MI talent -- and after raiding the cupboard, the pitching depth in the minors is shaky, too.
My feeling? If you can get some talent "of need" for Branyan, trade him and be thankful. If you cannot get a good haul for him, and you can limit the contract to 2-years and a buyout, then go ahead -- because if Carp comes up and hits, and Clement comes up and hit, and Branyan is still hitting, you can get a 2nd chance to trade him for need.
My concern is that the club avoid a 3 or (shudder) 4 year contract that he may well be seeking.
There's nothing wrong with overpaying (a bit) for late contract years.
My issue is in the view of the choice compared to the ENTIRE plan for the future roster.
You've got Ichiro socked in as an overpriced declining vet already.
If you add Branyan as a declining vet, (even well priced) ... what does that mean to the rest of your roster assembly?
At the moment the club has what in terms of "potentially" upwardly mobile bats?
1) Lopez -- (a year ago, everyone was thrilled - today, they can't wait to dump him)
2) F.Gut -- (so far, he's lived down to expectation - great glove, weak bat -- but flashes still suggest upside).
3) Carp -- (tearing up AAA
4) Clement -- (his yoyo performances have everyone suggesting different futures).
I won't even bother to put Wlad in the prospect list at the moment.
There's other bodies on the farm that draw enthusiam, but only one that appeared near-ready this spring, (Tui), and he's on the DL for the foreseeable future.
The problem here is that the club currently has ZERO "already producing" upward trending pieces in play. If you are looking at an age 26 Pujols or Utley already posting .900 OPS figures to build around, you're in one situation. If you're looking at Lopez and Yubet and Wlad to build around, you're in a different galaxy.
The FA-first approach by Bavasi, (Beltre and Sexson), puts you in a position where the prospects MUST work out in order to compete. (Beltre's age actually made him a not-terrible selection -- but the timing was still about world's worst in terms of buy low, sell high).
The choice of getting high-probability production for 2010 isn't bad. But, you've gotta contemplate the roster flexibility issues and personnel development issues when considering it. The basic reality is this -- you cannot wait until AFTER the decline to cash out your invesment. The point Branyan's production swoons to a .700 OPS, he's no use to your team AND you cannot get anything for him in trade.
The unfortunate truth is that there is a desire to keep anyone who is productive. But, you can only amass talent from the outside if you're dealing someone with perceived value. There were many who railed against trading Putz because of what he had done in previous (not the most recent) years.
Beltre still has value from his resume despite his 2009 struggles. Branyan will not get the same treatment. His age, resume, and book as just a platoon guy all work against him.
Me? I *LOVE* adding older guys to fill in final roster spots. Give me a Big Hurt comeback chance when I'm feeling good about my other 8 and I'm all ears. I just don't believe you begin rebuilding projects by spending years on mid-30s players. It's how you should end the rebuilding process.
Seriously Sandy, you've been overplaying the "overpaid declining vet" line with Ichiro for a couple years now.
Ichiro is hitting at a career high pace in a pitchers park and plays great D in RF, with elite baserunning skills.
You knock Ichiro while "actual" disasters like Carlos Silva get a free pass from you.
Ichiro has never been overpaid except in the context of the declining market this past offseason. And even then when you consider his marketing value to the Ms, theres just no way hes overpaid.
Ichiro - Isolated power:
First 5 years - abberation was the 262 hit record season
.107
.104
.124
.082
.133
Most recent 3 seasons:
.094
.080
.076
My complaint about Ichiro has been consistently that he had lost his power. After 5 years with very steady power, (and accepting that the 262 hit season was a choice, not a sign of decline), that doesn't change the facts.
From 2006-2008, Ichiro's power vanished. Others brought up questions regarding his speed, which I never really commented on, because I didn't really see any real evidence of decline. But that ISO drop was by about every definition you can come up with a TREND.
Am I thrilled that Ichiro has found his power stroke? Absolutely. And along the way I noted that Ichiro is a singularity - that he doesn't fit well into any projection scheme. But being unique means that you are beyond predictability. In any system I am aware of uncertainty equates to risk.
I would love for Ichiro to prove me wrong -- but that is not the same as saying I think it is a good idea to ignore the reality that no matter how unique players may be, they do still age. Ichiro posts OPS figures over .800 in 3 of his first 4 seasons, and posts OPS figures below .800 in 3 of the next four.
But, blind love of a special franchise player is what leads to signing longterm contracts like Bagwell with Houston -- a contract that was a major problem for Houston to deal with for at least 3 years, (and one Bags eventually had to walk away from).
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As for Silva, he was a #5 SP gamble, and I didn't like the contract when it was signed. But I didn't have anything pertinent to add. He was a high risk, low reward pickup, where the contract was too large and too long with zero upside.
Now, I have defended Washburn on many occasions, but don't recall ever supporting Silva other than to say there is some chance that he might become serviceable again -- or that he might hold some value in long relief.
Has Ichiro been overpaid up till 2009? NO. Hes mostly been a huge bargain over the years for the Ms, and his recent contract so far has been slightly below market value (a good deal early on).
WILL he be overpaid in the future? This is debatable. So far Ichiro has aged VERY well as speed dependent, high contact players normally do. Hes having his best offensive season ever this year (so far).
We've discussed Ichiro's IsoP before, but it correlates with his GB%. The higher the GB%, the more hits/IHs, the less IsoP. The lower the GB%, the higher the IsoP, and the lower the AVG.
I beleive that the reason Ichiro IsoPs have been low in recent seasons is because his approach has shifted from power to singles.
The ONLY seasons in which Ichiro has managed a 56+ GB% are 2004, 2007, 2008, and 2009. THREE of these seasons have been his MOST productive offensive years along with 2001. In his TWO HIGHEST IsoP seasons (either than this year), hes had two of his WORST seasons offensively in 2003 and 2005.
In NONE of the 56+ GB seasons has Ichiro managed an IsoP over 0.082 either than THIS year in 2009. GBs and IsoP are a tradeoff for Ichiro (either than this year wheres hes combined the two for the first time ever). So far in his career hes been much better off taking GB% and going for singles.
Looking at Ichiro's Slugging %...there is no trend:
.457
.425
.436
.455
.436
.416
.431
.386
Other than an anomalously low 2008 figure, Ichiro's been a .430 SLG player +/- 20. There are only so many bases in Ichiro's bat per year. He can either try to hit for power (and succeed to some extent but accept a lower BA) or he can try to hit for average and accept lower IsoP. You know why? It's not just the GB%...it's also the left/right hit scatter. Ichiro's career batting average on non-groundballs to left field (I went into my PBP database for this fun fact...took a while to figure out the query that would give me the answer I wanted) going into 2008 was (wait for it)...
.191
When he does not hit it into the ground and goes the other way with it...it's an auto-out. Literally. A buck ninety one!
Whewn he hits a non-groundball to right field...that BA is .309 (LOL)
That's about as extreme a split as you'll ever see.
When he tries for power, it is harder to time his swing and he hits more fly balls to left field (auto-out). When he tries for singles, he gets to wait back on pitches a little bit longer and still get good results (if you get fooled while you're muscling up for power, you're going to hit a fly ball...Ichiro SUCKS when he hits fly balls).
He had a bad 2008 season but I think a lot of that was bad luck on balls in play (by Ichiro's standards).
I think he still remains the same .330/.380/.430 player he's always been.
Ya, I don't expect his power in '09 to continue, but you never know.
Whats been interesting this is that opposing infielders have been playing Ichiro a little further back than they used to. This probably means that Ichiro has a lost a 'tick' of speed to first.
Whats unexpected though is that this hasn't harmed Ichiro's ability to hit for average in the LEAST. In fact Ichiro's 2009 IH% is BY FAR the highest of his career. If infielders continue to play back on him, Ichiro's going to have a career high in infield hits, and likely his best season since 2004.
What we have here is a case of managers deciding that they'd rather give Ichiro some infield hits than some outfield hits...because when they played him up close he still hit .330...just with more singles going to the outfield.
If they play him this far back all year, he's going to start bunting again too...that is Wak's MO afterall. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ichiro have himself another .350+ BA season this year. He's on one of his famous .400+ hot streaks. If it lasts through June or even July, he's got 200 hits in the bag despite missing the first 8 games.