OVERVIEW TO DATE:

REPLACEMENT LEVEL: 48.0 W
CATCHERS: 2.4
- Adam Moore: 1.7
- Rob Johnson: 0.8
- Josh Bard / Eleizer Alfonzo: -0.1
FIRST BASEMEN: 1.7
- Ryan Garko: 1.0
- Casey Kotchman: 0.5
- Mike Sweeney: 0.2
SECOND BASEMEN: 4.2
- Chone Figgins: 4.2
- Jose Lopez: 0.3
- Jack Hannahan: -0.3

On to the hot corner, where, since we've made the call that Chone Figgins is likely to get the first crack at second base, we must conclude that Jose Lopez is likely to get the first crack at third base. There are a few complicating factors though. Of course, my projections hinge on whether Lopez can actually stick at third long enough that Figgins gets the majority of the plate appearances at second as I proposed. But also, there is the matter of Lopez' status on the trading block and the Mariners' quest for a permanent solution at first base. We have to make projections with the assumption that no huge roster changes take place mid-season - especially with the unpredictable Zduriencik at the helm. However, there are certainly many degrees of freedom in this system.

We will go out on a limb, however, and suggest that Matt Tuiasosopo will get more of the second tier playing time than Jack Hannahan (in fact, I believe he has earned himself a spot on the 25 man roster to start the year with his torrid hitting and Hannahan's pure suckage). We do need to assume that Hannahan will spend at least some time on the big club, but Tui is going to be our front runner for the left-overs when Lopez isn't at third.

As I've already discussed Lopez, Tuiasosopo and Hannahan offensively, I will concentrate on their likely defensive contributions and matters of playing time.

JOSE LOPEZ: .810 (.290/.330/.480)

Lopez has, by all accounts, been a good team player and done everything he's been asked to do regarding his potential shift to third base. He's naturally gifted in ways that make him physically better suited to play third base (a strong, accurate arm, soft hands, and laser quick fast-twitch reflexes (ever notice how well Lopez turns on inside fastballs?) all do more to help you play the hot corner than second base. However, every report also makes note of the fact that Lopez was a slow learner on defense in the past and is having a lot of trouble making some plays that Beltre could have made easily thus far this spring. Given the skill of the rest of Lopez' infield, I don't think we're going to see him TANK on defense. His natural tools should lead him to a passable game over there, even while he goes through his time breaking in at the new spot. However, I am going to be at least a little pessimistic and spot him -5 runs on defense. His offensive game, if I'm right about the power being legit, still makes him a solid contending third baseman, but it does cut into his value on paper. He might surprise us all, but I can't project it.

MATT TUIASOSOPO: .680 (.240/.290/.390)

Even as I do these pieces, my evaluation of the on-field action is evolving. Tui has done everything (and I do mean everything) he needs to do to earn a spot on this roster as a super-sub. Up to and including hitting the stitches right off the ball repeatedly on pitchers' pitches, playing very crisp looking defense at 2B, 3B and yes...even SS (!) and showing himself to be very coachable and amenable to staying flexible and filling many roles for the club. I don't think there's any way he's still behind Hannahan on the Mariner depth chart at this point. Zduriencik may be squeamish about promoting a kid too quickly, but you simply cannot pass up a chance to develop your high-upside prospect in a low-pressure role at the MLB level for a guy like Hannahan. You can't even argue that he's too much of a defensive liability since it's not like Hannahan is a particularly gifted middle infielder and it certainly doesn't seem likely that Lopez or Figgins will miss HUGE amounts of playing time to open up a spot for both. Defensively, I think Tui will be at least average-solid at third. He might be a bit error-prone (he has historically had that problem in the minors), but he's got all the tools and shown himself to be a hard worker and a quick study when it comes to the glove stuff.

JACK HANNAHAN: .670 (.230/.325/.345)

I am moving more and more toward taking most of Hannahan's PT away at this position, but when he does play, he's an absolutely elite fielder...he may get into a bunch of games as a defensive replacement if he's on the roster and that will help ameliorate Lopez' defensive shortcomings and keep Hannahan above the replacement level in value at this position.

WAR Stack (Player: PA, RC, WAR)
- Lopez: 570, 75, 2.3
- Tuiasosopo: 75, 5, 0.1
- Hannahan: 25, 0, 0.2 (all defense)