TOTALS SO FAR:

REPLACEMENT LEVEL: 48.0 W
CATCHERS: 2.4
- Adam Moore: 1.7
- Rob Johnson: 0.8
- Josh Bard / Eleizer Alfonzo: -0.1
FIRST BASEMEN: 1.7
- Ryan Garko: 1.0
- Casey Kotchman: 0.5
- Mike Sweeney: 0.2

So it's on to second base. And we have a major problem here if we're going to make accurate projections (relatively speaking). We have no idea whether Chone Figgins or Jose Lopez is going to start at second or whether it's a little of both. And even more problematic...if Figgins is the second baseamn...we don't know how he'll do defensively. Or, for that matter, whether Figgins' body can stand up to the rigors of full time second base duty (he's been injured a few times in the last five years, a lot of it being lower body issues...little waterbug players tend to age early if they play too much MIF).

But let's lay out a few opening assumptions for the record.

1) Based on Figgins' past record, he's going to spend at least some time out of the line-up...perhaps not a huge amount of DL time, but enough that it needs to be factored into the analysis.

2) Figgins will get the first crack to start at second base and Lopez will play second base when Figgins needs time off for whatever reason.

3) The back-up infielder won't get all that much offensive playing time at second - his primary role would be following double-switches, as the defensive player in case of emergencies and the like.

4) Figgins will be an above average defensive infielder wherever he plays; however, adjusting to the physical demands of second base and turning the DP will limit his ability to produce big time glove impact at second.

Those assumptions underline everything that follows in the comments on each player and feed into the numbers you'll see below.

CHONE FIGGINS: .775 (.285/.390/.385)

Firstly...I know there's a lot of skepticism about Figgins' high OBP from 2009, and considering it was really his first elite OBP season at a fairly late age, I don't totally blame the bloggers from being a little wary. However, when I see a stable trend in the data...I don't react with skepticism unless I have good reason. Figgins' BB/PA from 2006 on:

0.095
0.101
0.119
0.139

Figgins' BB/K from 2006 on:

0.62
0.72
0.78
0.89

He's getting progressively less aggressive up there. To back that up...his SW% over that span:

41.1
41.7
37.9
36.4

He's among the least likely to swing the bat in all of major league baseball now. He's a tiny little pest, and his strike zone is hard to hit even for guys with good command. But when he does swing the bat, his contact percentage is SKY HIGH (if it's in the zone, he hits it 91-92% of the time).

Stylistically, Figgins might be better suited for the lead-off spot than the two hole if for no other reason than he takes a zillion pitches, strikes out a bit too often for a #2 hitter with Ichiro on base and may actually be slightly faster than Ichiro at this point in their careers, though it's close. But I don't think the difference is large enough to worry about. Overall, I think 2009 was the real deal...the natural culmination of health + increasing maturity at the plate + increasing pitch recognition skill = rising OBP. Add that to Jose Vidro level strike zone coverage and contact skill and Ichiro-level speed, and you get a nice little package.

Defensively, I think Figgins will be a little above average at second...a small upgrade over what the Mariners got there last year in Lopez, but perhaps not as valuable defensively as he would hav ebeen at third base.

JOSE LOPEZ: .810 (.290/.330/.480)

Much of my offensive projection for Lopez rests on four consecutive months of consistent power production following a return from berievement leave in 2009. If he's going to be a run producer like I believe, he's going to need to maintain the same level of focus on finding his pitch and driving it that he did last year in the second half. I believe he has matured leaps and bounds in the last few seasons...real life tragedies can have a way of doing that to a man, as can natural aging. He's also approach his age 26-28 peak seasons. Taro expresses doubt with regard to Lopez' HR production being real based on very short HR distances and a huge cluster of HRs right down into the LF bullpen area. I see his point...but I think that's a skill he can maintain, not just luck. Line drives that squeak over the left field wall may be his repeatable MO since he did repeat that four straight months. We will have to see who turns out to be right.

JACK HANNAHAN: .670 (.230/.325/.345)

It's the low BA version of Willie Bloomquist! Woohoo! Seriously...Hannahan is capable of putting up a pro-looking at bat, working the count, and he's got surprise pop in his bat when he hits the ball, but because he whiffs too often, he's never going to hit for a high enough average to make his offensive game worth watching. Defensively, he's a far-above-average defensive third baseman, but at second, he's probably only average.

MATT TUIASOSOPO: .680 (.240/.290/.390)

Tui still has some growing to do at AAA, but I expect he'll get at least a few ABs at second for the Ms at one point or another during the year...perhaps in September. He's proven himself to be slow to adjust to higher competition on occasion (recalling his disastrous promotion to high A ball a few years ago) and he's not at all polished in his approach at the plate. Don't expect too much out of Tui right away.

WAR Stack (Player: PA, RC, WAR)
- Figgins: 570, 85, 4.2 (that's giving him +5 runs for defense)
- Lopez: 80, 10, 0.3
- Tui/Hannahan: 40, 2, -0.3