So with only one unit left to diagnose in detail, I'm up to 86 wins. Ask five Mariner fans at random (at least if you're picking from the well-informed folks in the broad Mariner blog-o-sphere) and you'll get 5 totally different opinions about how useful the pen will be. Sandy, for example is busily claiming the team has some problems in the pen that could kill its chances. Doc thinks the pen is strong enough that we don't need Keeley's arm in it. :) The USSMariner crowd seems to believe the bullpen is only a minor strength, not a major plus. And I wind up somewhere in the middle.

I think the Mariners are exactly one closer away from having a world series caliber bullpen. David Aardsma is a major...major problem for this club. He was the heart and soul of the bullpen culture last year and Wakamatsu is going to feel a lot of pressure to stick with him as long as he possibly can. He's going to have to resist that pressure, I fear; Aardsma is about to turn into a rotting pumpkin (watching him get his skull crushed flatter than a penny on the railroad tracks by minor leaguers in spring training is certainly not helping me overlook his very evident flaws) and the club will need to be quick with the hook and nimble with their use of relievers much like they were last year when morrow rather spectacularly failed as the team's closer.

All of the other moving parts in the Seattle pen are fantastic when compared to other AL clubs...resolve the closer's role, and the rest of the bullpen stacks up quite nicely. Quick statistical note: rather than projecting games started, I'll be projecting games finished, to give an idea of how I think the pecking order will play out. Thatmakes the quoted statistical line: DNRA (DNRA+) / GF / IP / KPBB

DAVID AARDSMA: 5.10 (95) / 25 / 50 / 1.8

First, let's dispell a myth. David Aardsma did not improve his command appreciably in 2009 and thus, improved command cannot possibly explain his "breakout" season. His K/BB, BB/9, strike%, LD% and first strike% were well within his normal ranges of performance. The things that changed:

1) He became an extreme fastball/flyball pitcher in 2009. He used to throw the heater 70% of the time...in 2009, that figure jumped to 87%. He used to be a moderate flyball pitcher (GB/FB of just below 1)...last year, that ratio fell to under 0.5! The remarkable thing about this...with all those fastballs and all those outfield flies, he only gave up 4 HRs. He's never demonstrated a HR prevention skill before, and I don't think this was anything more than an abberation. I seem to remember a good number of warning track flies that stopped my heart last year before falling into Ichiro's glove.

2) His bread and butter pitch was NOT a well located fastball to lefties on the outside corner. That's a Dave Sims/Mike Blowers invention. His bread and butter pitch was a letter high fastgball poured over the plate and hit sky high or swung underneath. Go check it out at Brooks Baseball...seriously...look at his full season pitch F/X scatter charts. You're not going to find a blog of strike and out pitches on the outer third. Most of the cloud is right down the pipe.

3) He was NOT a completely useless pitcher before 2009. Teams didn't see the uses...but his DNRA+ before 2009 was 92...so it's not like he was an all out disaster. He was just extremely unreliable...and that is what he will be again in 2010. You can't give a guy like this the innings that matter most for a long time and live to tell about it. The fact is...the wild, hard throwing arms routinely find one lucky year in the sun and routinely return to Earth shortly thereafter. This isn't a new story. A modest prediction...Aardsma will blow several critical games in April and early May and be shown the door shortly thereafter...the team will invent some injury to quietly remove him from the pen, and when he returns, he'll be a 6th inning garbage time power arm.

BRANDON LEAGUE: 3.35 (146) / 40 / 80 / 3.0

I'm being a little gutsy with this call. It's poor form to make an extreme projection without a lot of evidenciary support or an established track record to go on. So I'd better have some good evidence that League is about to break out to this magnitude. Here's my best case:

1) He came to the Blue Jays with big time pedigree...he was a high first round pick expected to be the savior of their bullpen nearly immediately. When he got to the big leagues he did indeed enjoy some immediate success. Injuries in 2007 and bad luck in parts of the 2008 and 2009 have helped keep his existing successes secret from the national media.
2) He already had a brutal out pitch in his arsenal (the sinker/change doohickey), but when he tells you that he's finally gotten the feel for that pitch and improved it over the last year or so, and when the results suggest that in the second half of 2009 he's dudenly locating even better with his fastball and pitching more aggressively because his out pitch is becoming unhittable (and he's getting a BIG jump in K rate as a result)...you learn to take these transitions more seriously.
3) His template (extreme Bradnon Webb level groundball rates and high strikeouts) is among the most repeatably successful family types in the game.
4) Toronto is a HORRIBLE place for a ground ball pitcher. Even prescription turf is very fast and very springy, leading his home BABIP to be 30 points higher than his road BABIP (CAREER!)...what happens when he moves to the long grass of Safeco and his road BABIP stays low while his home BABIP drops even lower?

On the whole, a cross between bad luck, bad park fit, bad Blue Jay defense, and an evolving arsenal make League a high probability candidate for a breakout 2010 season.

MARK LOWE: 3.60 (135) / 25 / 75 / 2.3

I have League eventually assuming the closer's role, not Lowe. Currently the Mariners' bullpen pecking order (as spoken about by Wak) leads with Lowe after the D.A., but I think Lowe profiles poorly for the job and I think League's outstanding performance is going to force Wakamatsu's hand. Lowe may get an early crack at closing, but don't count on that being his permanent job description. The problem is that League is significantly more reliable and more likely to keep the ball in the yard in close games. If there's a complaint at all about Lowe and his absolutely NUCLEAR arsenal of pitches (DEVASTATING 98-100 mph fastball, hammer slider and great arm action on his change), it's that he shows little pitchability and intelligence, and periodically, some little rodent like Ramon freakin' Vazquez turns aroud one of thos 98 fastballs and hits it 450 feet. I'm projecting persistance for Lowe...he is what he is at this point, IMHO. If there's room for upside, at this stage in Lowe's career, it will be found in his being less aggressive with the fastball and throwing his secondary pitches more often...but that's not what Wetteland coaches, so I tend to doubt that's about to happen any time soon.

SHAWN KELLEY: 3.95 (124) / 15 / 95 / 2.6

Before Kelley's side randomly exploded in April, he was demonstrating extremely superior command, a tendency to get ground balls with his slider, and the ability to throw either his fastball or his slider in any count. Afterward, he became the 94 mph version of Doug Fister. His offspeed pitches all but vanished (and his slider rolled instead of biting), and his fastball, even well located, was periodically getting punished for long home runs.

Dr. D pins the blame for Kelley's oblique failure on an unnaturally forceful followthrough in his delivery. If this is not corrected, this issue could recur at any time and take away his slider. How are they related? It may be that he needs an aggressively downward-pulling thought in his mind as he throws the slider to get the right torque on it? I don't know why his slider lost life after the injury...but I'm quite sure it's psychological. Doc is EXTREMELY high on the idea of Kelley as a starting pitcher...I think if Kelley is going to be effective in relief or in the rotation, he has got to cut down on the home runs and to do that, he needs to throw lively secondary pitches. Located 92-94 mph fastballs are tough to hit, but it can be done. The slider he showed in April needs to return. And I think, used primarily as a 1.1 to 2.0 IP/appearance reliever in 2010, we will see the change-up and slider return more often. The projection is gingerly optimistic, and one of the calls I'm making in which I am least confident. Note, I have Kelley notching a lot of innings this year...some of them will come in spot starts, if things go as I anticipate.

KANEKOA TEXEIRA: 4.15 (117) / 15 / 85 / 1.6

I'm going entirely on minor league scouting reports and stats, the basic template for Can'a'corn'a and the few innings I've actually gotten to see him pitch in ST. But what I see in the early going is a pitcher who is going to suffer from occasional bouts of command trouble because his sinker sinks too much (a la Sean Green), but who has considerably better deception and overall stuff that Green did and who already possesses a durable and flexible arm. He's going to be a big story in Seattle...helping us bridge the gap between our sometimes flaky rotation and the set-up corps. Don't expect miraculous deeds, but a very valuable and fungible swing man, I think is a reasonable projection. He'll get his ground balls, mix in some Ks and some BBs and keep the ball in the yard.

SEAN WHITE / JESUS COLOME / SCRUBS: 5.55 (89) / 20 / 85 / 1.5

Color me skeptical that White sticks around all year or is anywhere near as fortunate in the ERA department as he was last seasno. I'm equally dubious about Jesus Colome, who appears to have locked down the 7th bullpen slot for now, or about any of the other scrubs we might try in his stead if/when he fails. Thankfully, we're going to spend a lot of the season with an 11 man staff IMHO, so there isn't going to be call for a lot of innings for these guys with mediocre command and a general lack of reliable out pitches.

WAR Stack (Player: DNRA+, IP, WAR)
- Aardsma: 95, 50, 0.2
- League: 146, 80, 1.6
- Lowe: 135, 75, 1.2
- Kelley: 124, 95, 1.2
- Texeira: 117, 85, 0.8
- The Rest: 89, 85, 0.0

So the final projection: 81 wins. +/- 10 wins or course. :)

Even considering Garko's impending loss of PT and Sweeney's gain...I don't think the overall picture has changed much for me. This still looks like a 91 win club.