Yeah I know, I end up putting another website on the spot, but good night....enough about the defense is important schtick. We all get it.
I wish I could remember where I read that it took roughly 3 years worth of data to come up with reliable offensive sabermetrics and that it would take roughly 3 times as long to come with a reliable count of defensive metrics to come up with a statistically reliable sample.
We still don't even use useful data such as trajectory and speed of a batted ball, positioning, and the relative values of the guy next to us. Sorry, but saying that because Wlad has a "-5" rating means Chavez should have been in there sounds like junk science to me. When a player's UZR jumps all over the place from year to year, I'm more liable to watch the guy than trust the numbers.
If it's going to take 9 years to get a reliable sample, I'll trust my eyes that Wlad has reasonable speed and a reasonable arm, and that the leverage of his error was a function of its timing and context in the game. Who's to say that however many fewer times Chavez makes an error in his career that it would not happen at that time? You can't eliminate chance from the game.
At any rate, even if the 3-yr, 3x thing isn't accurate, UZR and its associated dogma still leaves a lot to be desired IMHO.
Matty:
+++ [As Ichiro goes) ...so go the Mariners.
No single player can decide EVERY game, but here's a fun fact.
When Ichiro gets no hits, the team is 1-4. :) +++
LOL on the sample size quip. Which just now reminds me, that you've been alerting us to this for a couple years now ... I'm becoming more and more convinced.
Saturday, Ichiro notices that the M's are down 1-0 ... Gutierrez on first base, TWO out, and a single might accomplish nothing. Ichiro blasts one into the power alley, base of the wall, to score Gutierrez.
Eighth inning, same game, 1-1, Ichiro on first and Griffey doubles on two hops to the CENTER FIELDER... the ball is cut off in the gap ... and Ichiro scores anyway.
It doesn't prove, but it does illustrate, that Ichiro's value is multiplied in all of these low-scoring ballgames. A Rickey Henderson or Rod Carew or Pete Rose isn't quite as important in Coors Field 1999, when the scores are 11-9. But when you are in 1-1 ties every day, a Rickey or Ichiro can simply carry you.
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OBF sez:
+++ Wak has really won me over as well! ... I still think he has room to grow (getting comfortable with and knowing when and who to pinch hit, working the umps so his team will get a few calls), but my favorite thing about him is he seems like a guy who loves to learn, and isn't in love with himself. IOW I am not overly concerned about the few areas I see where he could improve because he is the type of guy that will always be trying to get better... +++
Large, scary men will follow another man IF they believe that he is all about the survival of the drop team.
A lot of managers are even more ego'ed out than the players. Wakamatsu is about helping the players succeed. And he is so determined to do this, that he doesn't care TOO much what they like and what they don't like ::coughsilvacough::. McLaren wasn't ego'ed -- he was a bench coach for Lou, slap me silly -- but he was evidently married to the idea of gaining the players' approval.
I just love Wakamatsu's balance of so many critical leadership traits. The man is bloomin' impressive, mate.
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Anonymous:
#1 - Why was Endy Chavez not a defensive replacement for Wlad after Wlad's last at bat? In a 1-1 game in the 8th/9th, don't you want your #1, 2, and 3 OF out there - especially since your 4th best OF has already finished hitting?
1) It would have been a reasonable move. No argument there.
2) Was it "stupid" NOT to (not that you said that it was)? I don't think so. If the game's going to extras, you might need that extra guy -- say, to pinch-run and steal a base towards the winning run.
Wlad usually makes that play. I'm not sure *how much* difference there is between him and Endy in a corner OF slot; Wlad isn't Griffey or Dunn. He's a fast OF himself. And Wlad may come up and hit again.
Just as one example, in Sunday's game Chavez caught a medium fly ball in foul territory and an important runner tagged and went from 1B to 2B. Chavez has a noodle arm, and he gives back 30-50% of that range advantage in runners who take advantage of him.
I'm not saying that the sub might not have been good. But there seem to be distinct advantages and disadvantages either way.
Just my $0.02. I could be wrong. :- )
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San-Man ...
+++ Pretty much in agreement. Though, I'm still firmly in the defense-first camp.
I think it's a tiny bit disingenuous to say Wlad's defense didn't cost the game. +++
Well, not disingenuous... misleading, sure :- )
I don't care whether people think it did or didn't. I'm not trying to defend Wlad, who I now think perhaps should be swapped out for a Michael Saunders type (though not kicked to the curb). I'm just underlining how much of a problemo the bats are.
Sandy, here's an honest question, not a rhetorical question: what do you think of the fact that the M's defensive stats (on many sites) are very unimpressive?
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+++ Mariner offense:
last 28 days -- .717 OPS -- 92 OPS+
last 14 days -- .795 OPS -- 112 OPS+
last 7 days --- .849 OPS -- 138 OPS+
EVERY team, regardless of talent has good and bad days. +++
And perhaps Branyan #2, combined with Lopez' heating up, means that some of this is real...
I looooooooove the fact that the San-Man is never blinded by the glare of what's happened in the last week or two. Of such stuff a reputation is made. *Viva* the San-Man! :- )
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
is that there is too much pressure on a single defensive play because they can't score runs...not because they are not preventing enough runs. How would Chavez help that. At some point a run saved does not equal a run scored. (Same thing at the other end...at some point, a run scored does not equal a run saved). Context, as always, is king.
For Saunders fans, Churchill has some video and a report here:
http://prospectinsider.com/view/m's-prospect-report/
I've been an unofficial PR guy for Saunders forever, but I'm pretty wary about promoting him too soon. He's still "baseball young" and "baseball raw" (northern climate/ hockey-lacrosse-hoops, if you've been keeping up). Even as he improves by leaps and bounds on his way up, I don't know if an MLB tour is the right thing yet.
Reinforcing this is his ice-cold June (3-for-21) and the fact that all of his "good" numbers have been racked up against righties. One positive sign it that during his little slump he has still walked 8 times, so his June line is .143/.379/.143.
I'm a big fan for the long haul, but I'm kind of skittish about expecting 2009 help from Saunders.
Churchill also mentions Doug Fister: 6-foot-8 righty from Fresno St. who does. not. walk. anyone: 4 BB in 45.2 IP (against 41 K). Looks like a middle relief guy to me.
Anyone got a take on him?
In 2009:
Endy Chavez starting: 21-18
Wlad Balentien starting: 12-14
Of course, that really isn't fair to Wlad. Endy is hitting better than Wlad, (.663 OPS to .642).
While I'm perfectly willing to accept that modern defensive metrics leave a ton to be desired, the wisdom from scouts all over the place assess Endy as one of the best and most versatile OF gloves around. I'm willing to accept that wisdom barring evidence to the contrary.
What I'm not willing to do is accept that Wlad's .279 OBP is better for the club than Endy's .323 OBP. I really don't care about Wlad's doubles. I'd rather 'settle' for Endy's extra walks AND extra SBs, (8 for 9 on the season).
Wlad is around because they continue to hope that he'll develop into a major league hitter. Thus far, there have been flashes ... but too few and too far between.
No, Endy is not a great hitter. But one thing Endy does is provide a league average OBP. THAT gives other hitters on the team extra chances. The offensive woes for the Ms aren't because of Endy -- they are because of the 4 starters hitting worse than Endy.
--What do I think about the Ms mediocre defensive stats?--
It tasks me. It tasks me, and I shall have it. I shall chase the truth round the moons of Nibia and round the Antares maelstrom and round perdition's flames before I give up! :)
In all honesty, it is a bit puzzling. The defense is certainly better than 2008, (26th to 15th in the majors). Currently ranked 7th in AL by bbref.
My first observation would be to note that the Ms seem to be confusing in a number of ways on the runs allowed side of things.
6th in Ks, 12th in BB, 3rd in HRs allowed. This shouldn't be good enough to rank #2 in hits allowed without a top 3 defense should it? But they do. The Ms rank #2 in hits allowed. The #1 item I look at for defense is always hits allowed. I then try to take into account Ks and HRs, (backward of every other sabrmetrician on the planet, but I'm a lefty, I'm used to doing things backwards).
Average pitching line allowed in the AL compared to the Ms:
League: .265/.336/.423/.758 - .298
Seattle : .253/.326/.385/.711 - .290
If I had to guess, (and I do), I'd say that Seattle is simply beating EVERY aspect of the run suppression formula by just enough, where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. The ranking in walks is a little deceptive, as there is a big glut of teams with nearly identical walk totals in the middle of the league. Seattle could easily go from 12th to 6th with a couple of good weeks.
Aside from that, there is one MAJOR thing I am aware of that makes me blink when I see it. The stat line by catcher:
Rob Johnson: 2.31-K/BB; .241/.306/.335/.640 - .285 BABIP
Kenji Johjima: 1.57-K/BB; .259/.345/.440/.785 - .287 BABIP
The previous years problems with BABIP seem to have been fixed with Johjima, who used to run BABIPs 100 points higher than his backups. But the cost seems to be that instead of making the fielders much worse, he makes the pitchers much worse.
The 18 point difference in average is almost exclusively from extra HRs, (which explains the extra 105 points of slugging - OUCH!). But, the drop in Ks, coupled with the spike in walks is a trifecta of TTO death. Johjima behind the plate is doing a fair job of turning YuBet into Adam Dunn.
I hate to say it - but while others are fretting over the team's offensive woes, my greatest angst moment of the past week was reading that Johjima's rehab appears to be ahead of schedule. Would that I could swap Clement's rehab with Joh's.
But, the REAL thing I take away from this is ... imagine what the team could do in run prevention if they do manage to take that next step forward in DER.
I honestly believe this is a 95-97 OPS+ team, if Beltre and Lopez are hitting -- without changing anything else. I also believe that with the bodies available, if the club can get some health gains on the pitching side ... well, they could potentially push their current 117 ERA+, (and remember that IS adjusted for the park), past 120 toward the 125 arena. (The 2001 team had a 118 ERA+, for those who have forgotten).
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I know you're a spiritual dude, Doc. Well, I believe that one of, (if not THE) most important thing a person can do to be blessed is to express gratitude. I believe blessing flows forth directly in response to gratitude. I am greatful to be witnessing one of the most impressive pitching/defense combos of the 21st century, (and remember, I'm a Braves fan - I do have some experience in this realm). I just wish a few more people would start seeing what I'm seeing.
I think Johjima was ALWAYS making the pitchers worse, not the fielders worse. It's not a coincidence to me that his OPS allowed has CONSISTENTLY been 100-150 points higher than his back-ups since he arrived in Seattle, even though it's gotten there in different ways each year. I think Johjima's problem is that he calls pitch sequences in which the Mariners are not confident...which results in harder hit balls in play, more home runs, more missed locations, etc.
Fair or not...Johjima is the single most important thing that was ever wrong with the Mariner defense.
Now...what do I make of the Mariner defense being middle of the pack? We started off playing great fundamental ball...but have since started making a gazillion errors (unearned runs do NOT influence ERA+ or hit rates!) which started dragging on our metrical showing. The primary culprits have been Betancourt, Balentien, and Lopez, none of whom we were counting on for great defense.
Here's how the Ms look by UZR:
Gutierrez: 8.2
Beltre: 7.2
Ichiro: 4.4
Chavez: 4.0
Griffey: 0.6
Branyan: -0.3
Cedeno: -1.0
Balentien: -1.0
Sweeney: -1.1
Lopez: -3.6
Betancourt: -10.0 (!)
Oh mon dio! Not only is Betancourt terrible this year...he's so terrible that he almost single-handedly erases the entire positive strength of the Mariner outfield defense! He and Lopez together a force of nature in infield sucktacularism.
Meanwhile, Cedeno's not good either...so don't get your hopes up about him stepping in for Betancourt and saving the Mariner defense. They need to acquire a glove-strong middle infielder...there's just no other way around it. And let's not underestimate how painful it will be to lose Beltre at third and how hard he will be to replace defensively.
Beltre, Lopez, the catchers, and Betancourt have all been TERRIBLE with the bats...we need Beltre and Lopez to hit...this team cannot win without that happening first...you can't trade Beltre...that wrecks the infield defense and the guy we get in return won't be MLB ready probably...I mean I'm not against trading Beltre, but doing so you have to recognize that it's waving a white flag on this season. And I don't think the Mariners can win without a good glove at short. That needs to happen sooner rather than later.
I love your (and Matty's) eclectic senses of proportion in baseball, the way that you can combine common sense and hair-fine data in Jamesian style.
I only agree with you what, 70% of the time, San, but that's what creates interesting discussions here. Genuinely treasure the idea exchanges.
Of course, I agree that Endy is an impact corner defender with the glove. I only wonder how much difference any defender can make in the corners, where chances are down by 30 to 70% over the middle of the field.
But Endy is a very interesting bench player. Reminds me of Paul Blair in a wannabe kinda way.
One of the reasons I believe that assessment of defensive worth 'might' be off is that the way defensive and offensive stats for INDIVIDUALS are presented support a subtle obfuscation of scale.
For defensive players, the stats push the idea of -- first give X credit to the pitchers, then divide up the rest among the fielders. On top of this is the push for calculating worth "above replacement", (which again removes some portion of actual plays from consideration).
To summarize:
Defense makes X plays.
Remove "pitcher" plays.
Remove "typical" plays.
Analyze what is left over. (defensive impact 0.0000314 runs per game).
For hitters, the push is actually in the opposite direction. The concept of RC27 is based on a lineup of NINE of this player.
Player makes X plays.
Normalize him UP to a full 162 games.
Picture a whole team up him playing, (multiply production by 9).
Analyze results. (offensive impact is 7.35695639 runs per game).
conclusion: defense is trivial.
Okay - not every offensive stat is RC27. But, the basic truth is that in many of the offensive metrics there is "piling on". OPS includes BA twice is another example.
The SCALE of many of the offensive metrics is different, because offense begins by being 100% the responsibility of the hitter - and the only nominal adjustment to hitting stats is park effect, (which increases them in half the cases).
RC27 says the average AL player produces 5.1 runs per game, (which is strange, since the AL only scores 4.82 runs per game - but I digress).
But, a player is only one of 9. That means the 'typical' player actually only produces 1/9 of that ... meaning 0.5666 runs per game, (based on RC27). Or, 0.535 is using actual runs produced.
Ichiro is at 7.6 RC27 -- that's 2.5 runs above typical. Sounds big. Except, it's really 0.84 compared to 0.56. Ichiro adds 0.28 runs per game more than the typical player. That's good. That's significant. But, if you ask yourself, can a guy in LF actually save 0.28 runs per game with his glove? Well, the question gets really, really hard.
Too many math ways to look at stuff. But Pirata did a chart on hits (including HRs), and run scoring. It turned out that in the range of typical baseball production, (worst to best), the actual slope of hits to runs was 0.8. Every extra hit, (after you reached major league TEAM minimums), was effectively worth 0.8 runs.
Can Endy prevent one extra hit every 3 games compared to Wlad? I don't know. Two extra plays per week? Seems possible - even at a corner OF spot. But, really, really, really hard to tell.
Of course, if you use the most basic ratio for hits to run, the ratio is closer to 0.5. Is 0.5 more reasonable to use? Or is 0.8? Would using 0.8 just be using the slope that most readily supports a desired outcome (for my argument)?
I'm willing to concede I don't know the answer to that. But I do believe that the methodologies for defensive assessment seem to all be built on throwing out large chunks of data as irrelevant to the analysis. But hitting stats do not remove HRs from the hitter totals because the pitcher grooved a fastball -- or because the wind was blowing out in Wrigley -- or because the official scorer decided to score something a hit instead of an error.
The Rays from 2007 to 2008 prevented 300 extra hits. That's an average of 33 hits per position. Few of those prevented hits came from the pitcher or catcher slots.
But 300 fewer hits led to ... wait for it ... 273 fewer runs. The run saving in that particular case was 0.9. Two years. Same club. Same park. Each hit prevented saved 0.9 runs.
Endy Chavez only produces 4.1 RC27. That's 0.45 runs per game created, compared to the average 0.56. Compared to average guy, Endy costs the Ms offense a run every 9 games. But, if that 0.8 runs per hit IS accurate, then being even a little below average defensively can have major impacts on runs allowed.
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In the end, I agree that Endy is a great #4 OF, and would rather see an average defensive LF with more pop. At this point, I agree that it's time to move Wlad out, get a MI back from somebody overstocked with MIs, and cycle another OF spec thru the mill. In the meantime, Endy remains a superb #4 OF, who I believe would be a very beneficial veteran to hold onto for helping these kids adjust to the bigs.