Seattle Sports Insider

Power Dive

Posted by

4/16/11

Some losing streaks are ... just losing streaks. Others are life-threatening. The current M's losing streak is the latter.

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=== Two Stats ===

STAT ONE: Bedard, 15 K in 13 IP. That's not a stat posted by ANYBODY with a dead arm. It's a real shame that things haven't gone his way -- especially during an early pivot point.

But Erikkk is who he is. If he pulls a Chris Carpenter and rips off three years of healthy performance, he's a (third) Opening Day starter. And if the M's could ever get to the playoffs with Felix, Pineda, and Erikkkk...

STAT TWO: Bedard, 0-3 .. if he'd started hot, and the M's won those 3 games, they'd be .500 and feel like they were even better...

Woulda, coulda, shouda. Not through any lack of effort on his part, his and Felix' W/L records are killing.

=== Theoden's Keep 300 vs 10,000 Dept. ===

This ballclub came out game for a fight. But sometimes you come out for a fight and, in the second round, realize that you cannot win this fight...

In Kansas City, the Mariners have looked like a ballclub that realized, precisely during Chris Ray's meltdown, that they are outmanned.

SSI is into callin' 'em as it sees 'em, and right now the 2011 Seattle Mariners are teetering in dress shoes on the edge of the skyscraper roof. They don't know if they've got the horses. Whatever you and I are wondering, they're wondering more...

=== All Apologies Dept. ===

We could go back historically and find lotsa teams that had terrible records early and then put on a run.

F'r instance, the 2007 Rockies started 18-27 .... and then went to the World Series. The 2009 Rockies started 18-28 ... and went to the playoffs. The 1995 Mariners... etc etc.

It's not intellectual suicide to continue to root for the Mariners. Teams pull out of power dives and go on strafing runs, and that's exactly what Zduriencik and Wedge will be trying to do.

They've got a big problem right now, though. This club doesn't believe it can win. Not because it doesn't care, but simply because they're smart enough to know their weaknesses.

=== Pearl on Black Velvet ===

Again Michael Pineda goes into his Sunday start with an 80%, 90% chance of laying the enemy waste ... and again it will provide a shocking contrast to the way that Bedard is being hit, and to the way that Felix is being immolated.

The Blue Jays blew up Felix and it was exactly that lineup that Pineda buried with 9,000 swinging strikes. The next day.

The Royals handed Felix a 7-0 drubbing -- probably his worst two consecutive losses in how long? -- and watch SSI's Adopt-a-Beast go out Sunday and make Felix look like a dead man. Again.

Of course, Jack Zduriencik goes into his Sunday start expecting a bunt popup on which Pineda and Smoak collide, tearing four knee ligaments on the Beast and collapsing Smoak's cranium. Ray Chapman II would be the absolute only way that luck could go south from where it is right now.

=== Lose the Battle, Win the War ===

Hey, we traded a 4/15 start for --- > the realization that we have Michael Pineda. Want to trade me a 3-and-25 month for James Paxton being C.C. Sabathia? I'll see you and raise Tom Wilhelmsen too...

I don't care if a team goes 4-158, it has two young pitchers like Felix and Pineda, it is in bidness :- )

If they were losing with Beltre, Silva and Batista, I'd go play 'net chess and watch Arsenal.

But any team that is rolling ballplayers like Felix, Pineda, Ackley and Smoak in there? They've got my money during a rebuild. Period.

You go Capt Jack,

Dr D

Comments

It's a given that we aren't a

It's a given that we aren't a competitive team this year, so if we're going to lose I don't have a problem losing hard. Even the team that loses on in the bottom of the ninth in the World Series has failed to reach their goal. The consolation prize is going to the playoffs and having the boost and belief that they can return.
Get Ackley up here sooner rather than later and let him, Smoak, Saunders and Pineda take their licks. We'll pick up Cole/Rendon in June and then another top 5 pick in 2012. Then, and only then, will we be ready to be the team that Seattle deserves. Any other studs from the farm system will be ready or close to ready by then.

streak central?

Honestly, this team, as constructed, I believe has the inate makeup to be one of the streakiest clubs in history. But, it works both ways.
The offense is - to be honest - bad. BUT ... the offense is also super heavy on high-K guys with sputtering power strokes. (Smoak may DEVELOP the "realiable" power stroke, but he certainly doesn't "own" it -- not yet).
Bradley, Cust, Smoak, Saunders ... heck, even Olivo ... all have "sneaky" 20-HR power. But, they don't have the Branyan-esque kind that will knock the occasional mistake pitch out even when they're slumping.
I think this club has the OBP potential that Z was hoping to get from last year's club. But, it's also got significantly more power potential. What it gives back is consistency - EXCEPT in the walk rate. Even when scuffling, this club will run counts up and draw some walks.
But, with a rotation that arguably has ZERO number 5 pitchers, (heck, depending on how highly one wants to mark Fister and Vargas, you could make a case that it doesn't have a true #4, since Vargas and Fister both have profiles that suggest either could be an average #3 pitcher).
And that's the thing. If you've got an offense that CAN get rolling - coupled with a rotation with 5 pitchers capable of throwing 3 or 4 QS in a row ... you've got a recipe for a team that COULD be very streaky.
That combo of steady pitching (rotation at least) - and on-again, off-again offense has created a very slow start. But, I think the 10-12 game win streak is just as plausible. I think the bullpen is the part which is more likely to extend the losing streaks (and cut short the win streaks), but I expect the bullpen to get better.
What I don't expect is a lot of time with a 5-5 in-the-last 10 readings on the streak-o-meter.

The streak theory is OK by me

The streak theory is OK by me as long as the streaks run a fair number of times in the wins column and not only in the loss column. So far the streaks have been of one category. It's great to posit streakiness of both kinds when only one kind has been in evidence. Talk to me a little more about this once they've had a win streak or two and I'll be more receptive.

And, the opponents too . . .

Texas, Cleveland and KC are streaky, as well -- and all 3 have been hot when we faced them.
Of course, one can debate the arrow of causality as to the streakiness (as in, maybe they got hot because they were facing the Ms), but Toronto was not on a roll and we played them to a fair fight.

Nah!

Don't see the streak capability in this team right now. 10 game win streak? You have to score 60 runs. I'm not seeing 6 runs per game in this team....not at all, as currently configured.
If Ackley comes up and walks 100+ points, Figgins turns (miraculously) into something that isn't completely abysmal offensively (or Z just lets Wedge bench him for Rodriguez or Kennedy), and we get some offense out of the DH and C....THEN we might be OK.
One of those...Ackley, will happen (in 5 weeks or so)....The others? Whooooo...long bet.

BTW...This team needs a RH OF/DH bat with pop . Geee....where have we heard that before? Guti when healthy? Maybe....Nah.
Add that....and then we might be streaky. Right now we'll lose too many 3-2 games to be streaky.

Ironic

I posted that then we WIN 3-2 today!
Doesn't chage the offensive equation, though.