His nickname's gotta be 'Great Blue', right???? As in, that's where he hits em.
He seems like a fundamentally different animal than Kotchman and Olerud, who are lankier and more talented. Alonso is thicker, bigger thighs, looks to me more like a natural power hitter. Also his swing shape looks more light tower than line drive. I'm just going off impressions, don't mistake my musings for anything based on actual knowledge. ; )
I like that he was drafted as a prep player in the 16th round, then raised his stock to top-10 in the draft after killing the ball in college. And in college he just got better every year....
I agree in your assessment that he looks far more intriguing than Hicks, and far closer to contributing soon. The hamate injury is huge, you're right, and that could easily explain the dropoff in production the past year. This could be buying low, especially with M-Vott-P clogging the path in Cincinnatti.
Q. Would Alonso be available?
A. It's been Twittered a bunch that he is available, and that would make sense. He's having a slow year in the upper minors, and Joey Votto is slugging .600 at first for the Reds. It's easy to imagine the Reds being thrilled with the idea of featuring Alonso in a Lee package.
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Q. How concerned are you about his (lack of) production?
A. Somewhat, but two things about that: (1) he's been slowed by a broken hamate bone in his hand. That's very important. And (2) like Aaron Hicks, he's a "projectable" guy with visibly special talent.
MLB.com has Hicks as the #29 in baseball and Alonso as the #30, I think. SSI is not huge on either player, but believes that cyber-Seattle is overrating Hicks and underrating Alonso.
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Q. What's the Exec Sum on him?
A. Here is a guy who did a real nice job producing a readable, pro-style scouting report that is on the mark. Read that and you probably have a feel for Alonso.
BaseballHQ is high on Alonso, giving him a 9C grade that is higher than Aaron Hicks'. Pre-season, HQ had Alonso #17 in all of baseball, the #2 first baseman behind Smoak. HQ had Alonso higher than Domonic Brown, for example. Don't limit your assessment of Yonder Alonso to his 230 at-bats this year.
HQ's checkpoints:
- Pure hitter with excellent contact (HIT)
- Outstanding bat speed
- Drives ball hard the other way, as well as to his pull field
- WILL hit for a high AVG in the major leagues
- Slow and a poor defender
Adding it all up, you've got a player who is either going to be Casey Kotchman (without the glove) on the down side, or a John Olerud / Mark Grace type (without the glove) on the high side. Smooth LH first basemen who are HIT first and PWR second can turn out to be anything from replacement-level to borderline HOF.
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Q. Which does SSI favor with this guy, the Kotchman scenario or the Olerud scenario?
A. Having just sat through the electroshock of the 2010 season, SSI has a hard time not flinching here.
I honestly don't know whether Yonder Alonso is going to pan out as (1) a 7+ RC/27 guy, .400 OBP and 25 homers and help lead you to a pennant, or whether he's going to be one more Casey Kotchman or Sean Casey, a big guy with a nice EYE who doesn't do much with the ball when he does square it up.
Once more, you've got a guessing game that you need a Zduriencik or a Jongewaard or a Gillick on hand to run for you.
.............
Will say this: Yonder Alonso has a dynamic swing that Kotch (and Carp) can only dream of. Here's an example: compare it to the upper-body, non-accelerated, static swing that Kotchman takes.
Match that dynamic swing with a reportedly 70 HIT talent and I've got an inkling that Alonso will play well in the majors, something in the 6-7 RC/game range. I see Alonso as driving the ball with authority. ... Probably. :eek:
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Q. Enough for Lee?
A. You'd much rather have "a package built around our catching" (Yankees) or a Justin Smoak deal ... don't write that one off, because the Rangers are in BK, and the M's could send cash to a team that is in a weird negotiating position.
As the feature player, I wouldn't be devastated Alonso, because his chance of helping the Mariners (a lot) is way over >50%.* But you can get 6-7 RC/game first basemen; the Mariners just landed one from the Indians.
But, if you got a guy you thought would hit .300/.400/.475, and if you then added exciting low-minors lotto tickets with him, that could be cool.
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Comments
To me the rarest commodities in baseball are (1) legitimate defensive catchers or shortstops that are league average or better with the bat, (2) pitchers with the stamina, command, and talent to regularly get through a lineup three times, and (3) bats that are good enough you don't care how well they catch the ball (say OPS > .900). What we would all like for Lee is a player that has a much better than 50% chance of being one of these three, and given the team specific strengths, (1) and (3) look better.
Ramos and Alonzo look like 50/50 bets to meet spec. You will also notice that Aaron Hicks isn't a good bet for any of these categories. Some would argue that the centerfield or second base options should be added to (1), but my opinion is that those positions are easier to fill. Frankly, I see 3rd base to be just as difficult.
The last point I would like to make is that the Phillies didn't get all that much for a FULL year of Lee. Frankly, Ramos and Hicks are both more valuable than any of the prospects we sent to the Phillies. The presence of Joe Mauer is the only reason why this deal could make sense to the Twins. From a value standpoint, I would guess convincing the Twins to part with Ramos and Hicks for Lee is the sticking point, not the other way around. What is quite possible is that Z wants Ramos and Hicks to set the value of Lee and then he can go shop that value for the players he actually wants.
If we want Alonso to be Olerud without the glove, does that make him Nick Johnson, basically? I do think he can be Nick Johnson.
He's 23, and has growth left. If we can forgive Ackley's lack of power at 23, Alonso should get the same benefit of the doubt, especially with the hamate injury. You don't bust a hamate curl off without holding a bat a certain way, and having the knob of the bat constantly rub on the healing bone isn't especially comfortable. He's changing his approach in AAA and starting to club for power at the expense of decreased walks and increased Ks (1.100 OPS his last 10 games, with a 9:1 K:BB rate). That's not what I want him doing necessarily, but there IS power there. I think he can be what Kotchman could not be at the plate: a patient hitter who has a decent average, good eye and power. He just has a little more to learn, yet.
Would I trade 3 months of Cliff Lee for a package that included 6 club controlled years of Nick Johnson, 3 of em making the minimum? Yeah, I think I probably would. I'd rather get Smoak, but I don't think that's as likely.
Alonso is possible - Votto is making Yonder extremely expendable. I prefer him to the theoretical package that includes the Twins' version of Michael Saunders circa 2007. And since we're talking about Alonso PLUS another couple of prospects it gets even better.
Getting a AAA first baseman with a historically good eye, power potential to all fields who is still young enough to have significant growth in his game and is dirt-cheap would be great. I'd feel better about filling that hole with a trade than trying to get yet ANOTHER catching prospect, or betting on a toolsy A-baller to come through in 2014.
I'd feel better about signing Victor Martinez for a bunch of change to throw out 19% of base-stealers and OPS 110 behind the plate. Victor + Branyan + Ichiro + F-Gut suddenly gives us some decent top of the order hitters, and assuming a Chone rebound, would let us play young kids like Ackley and Saunders in 2011, and Alonso in 2012 when Branyan's gone.
It seems likelier to bear the kind of offensive fruit we need. And it looks like - according to the rumors - that Jack is stepping up his press for offense.
I wouldn't scream like a schoolgirl if we added Yonder, but I would like it better than some of the alternatives. Somebody talk the Reds into having some stones on the trade deadline market, for once.
~G
And if Alonso were to turn out to be a player of that level, but healthier, that would be a nice return on Lee. You'd have the 3+3 years of value that you mention.
Johnson had one of the most freakish BB rates of recent years, but OTOH his PWR never projected to much. No reason to rule out 25-30 homers for Alonso yet.
As mentioned, if you're getting 6.5, 7.0 runs per 27 out of a first baseman with 6 years of club control, that's a player to shout about. Alonso could easily deliver MOTO production very soon after making the bigs.
Looking at it from a Nick Johnson MID projection, the trade looks better to me. Especially if you could finagle hi-upside young players in the deal.
Maybe Jack could ask you to pick him out a Robles, G :- )
I was grasping about for the idea here: get something you can't easily get in a non-Cliff-Lee scenario. :- )
Absolutely. Get yourself at least one piece to really build around - a SS or C who can hit #5 for you, or a thumper who can give you a true cleanup bat even if he's DH'ing, or something like that.
Of course, if Hicks becomes a switch-hitting Andruw Jones, that's a rare commodity, but seems to me that's so unlikely as to be close to the "wishful thinking" territory.
It's safe to assume that he doesn't have the wonderful all-around hand-eye coordination that Olerud and Kotchman and Segui did.
But fundamentally different animal, I dunno. In broad strokes we are talking about a super-balanced swing from a LH who is very selective, and who emphasizes HIT way over PWR.
G seems to have split the difference with his Johnson comp. Johnson was also a stiff mechanical athlete who became un-mechanical once he stepped into the batter's box.
Story at the time was that Raben had to play RF since Alonso could only play 1b. Alonso went #7 in the first round; we took Raben with the #66 pick in Rd. 2. Raben has been getting a fair amount of 1b time, so it would be odd if they got back on a collision course.
Minor quibbles: Alonso actually started the year in AA and played 31 G there (121 PA) with a .267/.388/.406 line (19 BB: 16 K). The struggling that you mention didn't really come until he moved up a level, and the K rate at AAA is so out of line with what he's done before that you'd think it must relate to something that can be adjusted.
Also, it looks as if they have him splitting between 1b and LF (AA: 14 1b, 13 LF, 1 DH; AAA: 38 1b, 15 LF). I assume that's a response to those ahead of him at 1b, and I assume the Ms would stick him back at 1b for good. That might calm him down at the plate, too, since, based on the reports on his 1b defense, his OF is probably not so hot.
That being said, the single-digit HR and low-to-mid-.400 SLG are kind of discouraging for a glamour prospect at 1b.
As you know, it's nothing unusual for a glamor spect out of college to have a slow year or two or three once he hits the pros.
Just one example off the top of the head, the #2 overall in 2008, Pedro Alvarez, went to class-A baseball, had lukewarm results, and we remember a fair amount of panic about it.
Don't have two dozen examples in my shirt pocket, but you'd find all kinds of top-10 draft picks out of college who had trouble with the minors for a while, and later starred in the bigs.
Wayyyyyyyyyyy too much made in cyber-Seattle of Alonso's start in the minors. Especially given the hamate.
Surprising, around the 'net, the lack of familiarity with typical post-NCAA development arcs. College players have to learn to hit the ball with a different part of the bat.
A little help?
I don't know what an RSS feed is. If you could explain it to me I'd be glad to ask the pro's and it sounds like something they'd be thrilled to frappe' for us.
:- )
Brandon Morrow $11.1 war per inning pitchedFelix Hernandez $10.1 war per inning pitched
An RSS feed is basically the feed for a blog's posts that can be viewed away from the site in a program such as Google Reader. Here is the feed for my site: http://www.proballnw.com/feed/ I highly recommend using a Reader if you're surfing a bunch of different sites, by the way. Makes browsing blog posts a lot faster and easier.
I used to have the RSS feed address for this site but deleted it when I was feeling kind of burnt out and simplifying a couple months ago (don't be offended, I deleted pretty much everything), but now that this site has been redesigned a bit I can't find the feed address. My web browser (Firefox) usually generates an RSS button for most blogs, but doesn't for this one anymore. Perhaps Klat is doing this on purpose to get people to come to the actual site, but without RSS feeds I tend to forget to check in and miss a bunch of stuff from high content sites such as yours.
No doubt there would be others in the same boat, if only because of wanting to scan the blog-o-sphere quickly
And the button is now there. Gracias.