Q. Who was that guy who had a piece on Johnson's offensive surge?
A: One more plug for our good bud San-Man. Here y'go amig-O.
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Q: Is Rob Johnson a good defensive catcher, or not?
A: Not that this ends the discussion, but .... scouts and coaches have always taken it as a GIVEN that Johnson is a plus defensive catcher.
This seemed a bit odd to me, too -- at Cheney it always seemed that there were three balls a game to the backstop (which is about a yard behind the catcher, LOL).
But nobody ever thought Johnson would hit. He's in the game because the technical guys love his catching.
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=== Footwork, Dept. ===
Will say this: the first thing they look at, is a catcher's footwork.
They want to know that a guy can get up out of his crouch and get his feet into throwing position quickly.
This quick-feet Grand Theme leads to:
(1) Good "pop time," the interval between the pop of the pitch and the pop of the throw into the SS's glove on a SB. It also leads to
(2) Dependable 2-3 assists, and it
(3) Allows the catcher to recover pitches that get away from him but don't go to the backstop, and it
(4) Is connected with EVENTUAL ability to block pitches by shifting your bodyweight, and
(5) Creates a general "professional" target behind the plate, as opposed to having a blob back there who reaches for pitches and gets "Ball Three" called from the ump, and
(6) Pretty much everything associated with good ML catching connects back to footwork, as measured in quickness.
..............
Without question, Rob Johnson is tremendously light on his feet. The dude must weigh 230 lbs., and he's one of the fastest Mariners. He is a remarkable athlete, and it translates to agility.
(Kenji Johjima also has very good feet, even now.)
Danny Wilson, an ex-hockey goalie, came into the game with the feet of a second baseman (though this changed later). He must have worn about a size-42 sport coat. Johnson goes more like size 48.
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=== Arm ===
I don't know what the SB% say at the moment, and don't care. Rob Johnson is a fine catch-and-throw guy and can deal with ML runners.
He doesn't have an Ivan Rodriguez howitzer, but Johnson is a big man with a powerful arm, and it is an accurate arm. When he first came up, they took off on him and he gunned them down in leisurely fashion.
Every scout in the bigs would tell you, we're sure, that Johnson is a plus catch-and-throw guy.
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=== Pitchers ===
Johnson -- going by TV interviews, quotes, and what they say about him -- is evidently a likeable, intelligent man with a rep for chatting up the pitchers constantly.
As you know, his CERA has been wonderful. Wok dismisses this as short-sample, which is fine. But Wok has also promoted Johnson to #1 catcher.
Johnson's ability to call a game, frame a pitch, etc., to THIS eye are definitely a plus. The pitch sequences, locations ... the tempo the pitches show, etc ... it's all been great.
I mean, C'MON. This staff is #1 in ERA and they ain't doing it with four John Lackeys and Jered Weavers. :- )
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=== Another Double and Walk ===
Wednesday night, Johnson with a BB, a lashed 2B, and a line-drive 1B up the middle, continuing the "rampage." (A rampage from a #7 M's hitter is like a stampede of wild bunnies, but y'know.)
Johnson stated that he has had his own "epiphany: "The game is slowing down for me now," he said recently. That would be "Noise", if it didn't come with a huge spike in his BB/K ratio.
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Personally, I'm alarmed at how fast Johnson is improving, and how well he's playing. Kenji Johjima dropped his hat, Johnson picked it up and I don't believe that Kenji will ever get it back.
What did you say we could get for Adam Moore, again? :- )
Cheers,
Jemanji
Rob is quickley establishing himself as a fixture in this franchise going forward. He's already loved by the coaching staff and pitching staff. He's established himself in his first season as one of the clubhouse leaders.
If his bat continues to progress to a respectable level, Adam Moore can certainly be used to grab another starting pitcher or young position player.
...he can become Johnson's back-up. We don't have another viable back-up catcher around once Johjima leaves, be that 2010 or 2012. Don't want to sacrifice all of your organizational depth at a position just because you like your current guy...especially at catcher, where injuries are extremely frequent.
Agreed.
If the bat continues to improve and the staff loves him, then Moore can be used as trade bait.
Dan Wilson is looking like a good comp right now. but Johnson probably has a slight power edge on him (hes 230) and showed a slightly better eye in the minors.
...he didn't show it as much in the minors because he was promoted way ahead of his baseball experience level (remember...he's a Montana kid and didn't get to play organized ball until very late)...but if we're seeing an accurate representation now (which may actually be underselling him since he's still learning), he's a 1 BB/K eye ratio and 4+ P/PA hard on the barrelhead. You can't buy that at the catching position.
Before we anoint Rob Johnson as a bonafide #1 catcher let the sample size grow to more than 30 or so decent games. Secondly, in no way do you trade Moore unless you get a starting league avg. SS (Brignac maybe??). Beyond MIF depth, the M's have the next least amount of depth at catcher. After Moore the cupboard is bare and given that catchers break down and Kenji may go back to Japan this could turn into a dicey situation. Next year have Johnson start and Moore back him up.
That is my fear as well...that we are setting ourselves up to be in deep trouble if RJ gets hurt.
is the way that baseball men can project catchers.
Danny Wilson, also, looked pretty lame when Lou Piniella grabbed him and said, flatly, "this kid's a number one catcher."
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We saberdogs absolutely HAVE to give credit to baseball men where it is due. Their early belief in Rob Johnson is an illustration of things they know, that we don't.
The Adam Moore quip was TIC. RJ is comin' on pretty gangbusters, tho.
My guess is that a year or two on, Moore is going to be RJ, plus some. In every facet of the game.
They didn't call for Rob to develop a bat...they believed in him because there is value in being the kind of catcher that can work with a pitching staff the way RJ can. And of course...he's also the kind of all around athlete that has projectable skills that don't show up in the numbers (increasing power potential, speed, footwork, plate blocking etc).
20 games played. Games where he failed to reach base ... 1
That's correct, in the last 20 RJ games, only once, (July 22nd, when the Tigers threw a combined 2-hitter - AND LOST to Felix), has Johnson failed to reach by hit or walk). Prior to this current streak, his line
was: .183/.238/.292/.530 (end of June).
Today: .230/.306/.353/.659
In 5 weeks, he's managed to raise his BA by 47 points, his OBP by 68, his slugging by 61, and his OPS by 129. Maybe it's for real. Maybe he's just on a hot streak. But, in either case, it's fun to see.
And are hereby entitled to enjoy every RJ walk at half price from now on, dude.
What do you expect from Johnson at his peak? Do you expect Adam Moore to beat him out for the job in, say, 2011?
Johnson stated that he has had his own "epiphany: "The game is slowing down for me now," he said recently. That would be "Noise", if it didn't come with a huge spike in his BB/K ratio.
3 weeks ago my golf swing felt so good it was completely incomprehensible to me as to why I didn't swing like that more often. It lasted about a week. RJ wouldn't be in the bigs if he had no talent, but I just don't see a guy that is going to hit at all. Come on, I've seen fastballs down the middle clank of his mitt multiple times. I say it's a hot streak, nothing more.
Ryan Langerhans? :- )
Langerhans' swing looks too whippy to me. It seems like he's making his job harder than it needs to be. It actually kind of reminds me of Carlos Guillen when he was a Mariner.
And Rob has two fastballs go off his glove in the 2nd tonight. Neither one was tricky but they aren't the easiest ones I've seen him drop.
Rob Johnson is dropping pitches behind the palte because he is trying too hard to frame them for the pitcher. In both instances tonight, the ball hit off the webbing of his glove and rolled away because he was keeing his hand as still as possible to convince the ump that the pitcher was hitting the mitt. Have you ever seen the movement on a Felix Hernandez fastball? He's underestimating the lateral movement on that ball.
I agree on Langerhans' swing being too whippy though...he seems to be a good guy to use against soft tossing pitchers (because his swing is longer and he prefers to drive the ball the opposite way anyway) but he won't do well against the power pitchers.
There's a HUGE difference between how you feel about your own mechanics and how percieve the world around you. Having the game "slow down" is exactly the sort of thing you would expect for a person recently promoted to a higher level (in whatever field they are in) and is likely a long term improvement. It's easy to be overwhelmed the first time you try something more challenging than you're used to know matter how talented you are but that can be just a tempory phase that evaporates as you get comfortable and adjusted. If he had said that he made some tweak to his stance or something like that then it would be wise to be dismissive.
A transient hitting streak usually comes with no discernable differences in what I call the "approach stats"...things like CT%, P/PA, O-SW%, Z-SW%, and K/BB. A guy in a hot streak that's unlikely to last will be doing everything the same but just (a) getting better results on BIP or (b) hitting the ball a little harder when he makes contact (resulting in a temporary power surge).
That's not what's happening with Rob Johnson. Watch the games, guys...seriously. He's having much tougher at bats, swinging at fewer balls, loading up in crippling counts, etc.
The result has been a P/PA split that does this:
APR: 3.43
MAY: 3.62
JUN: 3.72
JUL: 3.84
AUG: 4.40
And K% by month of:
APR - JUN) 26.5
JUL) 16.1
AUG) 9.1 (granted...small sample)
His O-SW% was 32.6 at the end of June (I looked at it then), and is now 26.7, his LD% has shifted from being extremely low at the end of June (14.5%) to being almost unsustainably high now (24.3%) and the entire shift has been from flyballs to line drives...meaning he's getting on top of the ball a lot better now.
and of course we all know that his K/BB has shifted suddenly and dramatically.
This isn't the profile of a guy having a little a hot streak. This is a player LEARNING.
But I'm not unwilling to appear foolish from time to time, so ...
Do I think he's REALLY a 50/50 K/BB guy with an .800 OPS? Of course not. But, I do think he's capable of maintaining a .730 ish power-empty line. (And I didn't believe Branyan was a thousand OPS guy, either).
As for Moore? I have no more reason to expect Moore to succeed in the majors than Johnson or Clement. He's too far away to project. The incredible plus in all this is that the Ms could have TWO under-30 quality catchers under club control for half a decade. Why is everyone so intent on CHOOSING between the two? Especially at the position that requires the most play by reserve, AND the one that is most conducive to non-DL injury.
Based on what I've seen thus far in regards of the ability of the blog-o-projections on Seattle prospects, I'd take the under on whether Moore ends up as a better or worse MLB player than Johnson. You want a sign of a GOOD organization? They have to CHOOSE between McCann and Saltimachia. This is precisely the kind of "problem" Seattle is in desperate need of.
For 2010, my dream would be Joh traded, and Moore comes up as the #2 behind Johnson, and then we see how he fares. But, I think that's a pipedream. I'd love a worst case where you're "forced" to V-Mart one of them. Aw darn, we had to trade away a guy who was gonna play 45 games a year for us to get a boatload of prospects.
The only downside at this point is with Clement gone, the catching cache for Seattle isn't as full as it was previously. There's some A-ball guys with some potential, but they're too far away for help in the near-term.
Having the game "slow down" is exactly the sort of thing you would expect for a person recently promoted to a higher level (in whatever field they are in) and is likely a long term improvement.
When things are going well hitters often say things like the ball looks so big coming out of the pitcher's hand. Blowers said on the broadcast that when he faced a pitcher he liked to hit that it was as if he just knew what was going to be thrown ahead of time (which is very similar to the game slowing down) while against pitchers that were tough on him it was like he was constantly confused (which is the same as the game speeding up). Seriously, if the quote were instead Rob saying "the ball just looks so big coming out of the pitcher's hand" I think you'd be saying "See, he's learning to read the spin on the ball!" You cannot make the big leagues if you cannot put together streaks where you look like you know what you are doing.
Langerhans is probably a good example that Doc brought up. Wasn't it Sandy who said that he'd look really good for about a month or so at a time before going on long streaks where he's completely lost?
You're correct that all players are a combo of streak and slump. Branyan was a can-do-no-wrong, thousand OPS guy that fans couldn't get enough of ... until he slumped to a 650 OPS for a month.
This is where ORDER changes perception. Lopez starts with .650 OPS production, when he hits .950 for a month, it isn't noticed, because most people ONLY track the on-going stat sheet.
But, first impressions are typically hard to shake. Going .650 to .950 creates a perception that the .650 is "real" and the .950 is just a streak. Go .950 to .650 and people get the impression .950 is real and .650 is just a slump. The reality, of course, is NEITHER perception is correct. The "reality" for every hitter is the aggregate combination of both streaks and slumps. No hitter -- not Ronny Cedeno -- not Albert Pujols -- hits at a fixed rate.
Pointing out that Johnson has been hitting over .800 for a month doesn't mean I believe he's an .800 hitter. I don't. But pretending the streak isn't as much a part of what Johnson is as a hitter is just as silly as pretending the first months didn't exist. It's not an either or. The question is not "is Johnson hitting .800 today?" - he is -- not "was Johnson hitting under .600 earlier?" -- he was. The question is, what is the likely combination of streak and slump long term?
For a guy with 2000 PAs in the majors, playing at various stops, with a slew of different coaches, most of the time he is what he is. Like Langerhans. He's a decent #4 OF, who will waffle between All-Star level and dogmeat level.
For a guy with only a couple of hundred PAs in the majors, it's just dumb to think those 200 PAs *COMPLETELY* define everything he is and will ever be as a hitter. Did Jose Lopez first 200 PAs define his ultimate journey? How about Wlad? How about Clement? Or Adam Jones?
If 200 MLB PAs was all that was needed to judge every hitter, then NO hitter would ever get YEARS of major league instruction to help him figure it out. Anyone projecting Johnson to become a 20-HR guy would reasonbly be laughed off the planet. But, projecting Johnson to be a .270/.350/.390 hitter (.720 OPS), with .750 upside isn't completely insane. Nor is projecting him to get "figured out" by pitchers and plunge to a .630 level.
As Matt noted, "some" streaks are easy to identify as "luck-based". A huge spike in BABIP with no change in Ks, no change in walks, no change in ISO ... that's a lucky streak. A period where a 25-year-old rookie shows major improvement in a bunch of skills with NO major spike in BABIP ... that doesn't scream "luck". The suggests STRONGLY that the hitter is growing.
Yes, it could be just a period of being in the zone. But, the month of August should be very instructional. Why? Because historically, streaks AND slumps typically max out at about 6 weeks. You go back and look at any players best periods - and by and large you can find 6 week windows of performance (high or low) well away from their standard production. Of course, a 25-year-old rookie doesn't HAVE any standard production. Johnson's current streak began almost precisely on July 1st. His August and September numbers will be VERY important in attempting to determine where his ultimate likely production level will land.
The Mariners have shown NO FEAR in handling underperforming big contracts. If they can't drive Johjima out to Japan, they'll just DFA him and trade him for an interesting A-baller (and eat the cost) when they get to a point where they want Moore on the big league roster.
...like Sandy...I'm not projecting that Johnson will hit like July/August his whole career...I doubt he's a 1 K/BB plate discipline monster. I do think his dropping K rate is a real change and I do think he's going to draw way more walks than he did in APR-JUN.
I am willing to bet that Rob Johnson ends up a better hitter than Dan Wilson and a better fielder too). But we'll see. Like Sandy says, we have two months to watch.