Part 3

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Q.  What are you saying, in one sentence?

A.  Upton's cool -- but ain't worth $100M, and he ain't worth Felix. 

Those paradigms are based on WAR-VALUE calculations that assume an ML ballclub has no minor league system.

It's a free country ... at least on the internet ... :- ) and that's my $0.02.

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Q.  But you have to delta Felix, Bedard, and Lee against your minors pitchers too, right?

A.  Much less so.  The performances of #5 starters are historically feeble.  The performances of LF's, not so much.

Still, if your particular MLB org projects your #5 starter to defy gravity and run a 100 ERA+, then sure.  Delta Iwakuma against that.

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Q.  OK, how good is Upton?

A.  He reminds me of a young Juan Gonzalez.

We remember when Juan Gone was in AAA.  Bill James wrote him up -- we remember the entry like it was yesterday --

"This guy is going to be a cleanup hitter.  Just the same, he's not my kind of player.  His K/BB ratios are going to be awful, and he's not going to help his team as much as people will perceive him to be helping them."

Or somesuch.

Upton is 22 and a quality ML player, and by virtue of that, he's got probably a 30% shot at being inducted into the Hall of Fame.  I'm not minimizing him here.  He's going to hit cleanup.

Just the same, Upton might very easily "create" tons of runs without actually driving in, or scoring, tons of runs.  He's not my kind of player.

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Q.  Does SSI project Upton UP, DOWN, or MID?

A.  His career arc, so far, is sensational.  He's very good, very young.

Just the same, his brother B.J. had a 136 OPS+ at age 22 (!!) and .... then fizzled horribly.

I don't want to put this wrong, but I don't give B.J. Upton credit for the kind of game intelligence, or work ethic, that you saw in a Ken Griffey Jr., an ARod, or a Dustin Ackley. 

I think the Uptons are more show than go.  It's just an opinion, but I'd be careful about Justin Upton's career arc because of his best comp:  his brother.

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Andruw Jones is another guy like this, a guy who gained some weight, who wasn't motivated quite like he might have been, and his career wasn't all it might have been.  Andruw was as good at age 21 as he ever got.

And Andruw had a good EYE from early on.  The Uptons don't.

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The mainframe just doesn't crunch Upton as a guy to buy long on.  Objectively speaking, he's a premier talent.  If you're talking about building your entire franchise around him, he's a guy to be careful with.  Take it or leave it :- )

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Part 5

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