Lueke's a guy I've always believed in. Yeah, I agree, his motion isn't always pretty on the back end, but he knows where the zone is and makes hitters look stupid while pounding it.
I'm glad his velocity is back. He said he might have to throw all winter since his velocity seems to wane if he doesn't, and he's had that problem for a couple of years, so assuming he does that and can fire at 95 all season long...
How good does that trade look?
Beavan has no Ks, but otherwise looks like a classic no-walks back-end starter and he can throw a million innings, IMO - he just has to keep his runs down to be given the chance to.
Smoak...I still think he's a 130 OPS+ guy going forward, just like we saw earlier in the year (or like we see from the right hand side of the plate, if you prefer).
And now Lueke is showing that the idea of him closing games for us in the future is not outrageous, as a thinking-League type (I like that description).
The Randy Johnson trade landed a few years of a TOR starter who then declined to a MOR one, plus a #5-6 guy and a decent SS who got TB, then blossomed into a plus hitter and heart-of-the-order capable guy.
I would take Closer, BOR #5-6 and and MOTO 1B out of this trade and call it comparable - just don't trade Smoak for a Ramon Santiago and it's all good.
And have Fister show Beavan how to strike some guys out, please. Lueke should have that part figured out in his second go-round.
~G
...................
Q. What was the toolbox in his return game against the Sox?
A. As depicted. Two-pitch arsenal: a 95-97 fastball, and an 83 split/change, NOT SLIDER, with armside run.
According to F/X, here are all of the relievers in baseball who throw 94+ mph, using armside-run changes and splits as their second pitches:
- Brandon League
- Jonathan Papelbon
- Jose Valverde
- Leo Nunez
- Ryan Madson
- Joaquin Benoit
Blake Hawksworth almost made the list, but he has a three-pitch arsenal using his curve ball a good amount. As we have mentioned before, a three-pitch arsenal is geometrically harder to master and maintain than is a two-pitch whipsaw approach; Hawksworth has a real good change and would probably be well advised to go for hair-fine finesse on his FB and cambio. ... Jim Johnson looks at first glance like he could do this, but actually JJ's curve is a lot better than his change, so no go.
Anyway, there you go: six guys besides Lueke throw 94+ with change/splits as their second pitches. Five are high-strikeout closers, plus Benoit. Benoit is an interesting flier here -- he has achieved a major velo boost the last two years. Talk about a "get."
I think it's fair to say that Lueke has a closer's arsenal. Everybody else* who has his arsenal actually is a closer, so yeah.
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Q. Is his change/split really that good?
A. I didn't think that it had much bite, and the chart above --- > confirmed the eye.
But this dude has a seriously strange motion, great arm action, and it is obvious that the hitters cannot possibly read the changeup out of his hand. We'll get to why in a moment.
The bottom line is, Lueke gets plus deception on his split/change, he always will, and it has a real hard yo-yo string to it. +13 mph is about as big a difference as you're ever going to find.
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Q. Mainframe crunch on the fastball?
A. That's a Brandon Morrow fastball. If he throws a zillion just like that, he's going to run a 10+ strikeout rate.
It is the degree of rise on a fastball that determines its lethality; hitters swing under good velocity. Lueke's rise, obviously, was stunning on Friday.
Who knows if he'll do that again, but if he does, he'll strike guys out routinely. There is no arguing about whether he has closer stuff, is there?
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Q. Okay, what's strange about the motion?
A. Two things that I loathe with the burning intensity of a thousand suns:
First, Lueke has the Daniel Cortes problem that he doesn't bend at the waist to finish. He is putting 96 mph torque on the ball, and then he doesn't bend over to clear his arm, so his lead knee and ankle are "sprained" every pitch, his arm crunches against his chest, he never finishes the same way twice, etc etc etc.
Now, objectively speaking, a few relievers do this. Boxers do it, if you think about it. But I hate it. :shrug:
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Q. What is the second thing you hate?
A. Like Cortes, and like Gerrit Cole, Lueke begins his acceleration before the top.
There can be no debate about this: it's a huge negative. Imagine a PGA golfer yanking his club back real fast on the backswing?! What's the advantage? There is none. It has exactly one consequence: the golfer (pitcher) never starts his downstroke from the same place twice.
***
Still, you know what other 97 mph reliever had these two things? Early acceleration, and no bend at the waist? Troy Percival.
Relievers are max effort. Lousy throwing motions don't doom them; lousy motions only mean that they have to practice twice as much, to get the same results.
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Q. But he was throwing better ...
A. bah humbug.... [next page]
Comments
Lueke looked like the guy from the scouting reports last year.
Maybe the Rangers didn't like Lueke and his mechanics, Beavan and his K's, etc?
All debates aside, Justin Smoak was one whale of a big fish to give up for two months of Cliff Lee. I'm still not getting the sweeteners. Your thoughts?
And Smoak alone would not have gotten it done. The benefits of a bidding war - the other guy has to throw a minor leaguer with 11 K/9 and a 4:1 K:BB into the mix.
Now, Lueke came cheaper because he has the off-the-field baggage. But now that we've had our uproar about it Josh can just pitch for a while, until he becomes famous, and then he'll have another round of it.
And yeah, sure, Beavan's lack of velo and Ks made ability to maintain his performances dubious, while his status as Texas League pitcher of the year gave him value.
The no-doubter you want is the main guy. You want the no-doubt MOTO hitter, not the no-doubt #5 arm. Beavan has Fister-level upside. Lueke could be an all-star closer.
But if they don't pan out, you still have the MOTO hitter you needed.
The Rangers had more 'spects than they needed at certain positions. For them giving up Beavan is like us giving up Carraway - would anybody who's not a minor-league guru even realize he was gone, or worry that we couldn't duplicate his performance elsewhere?
Lueke would be a Pryor or Fields type, assuming those were working out for us. We have half-a-dozen closers in the system doing interesting work, and just drafted a couple more. He's a righty - they can find another. They found one in the same deal, in fact - let's not forget we gave them Mark Lowe to make it work. They just swapped righties with us.
And then there's Smoak, who was one of THREE first basemen they had with approximately the same skillset. We should be so lucky to have so much corner power that we could afford to trade some. They were that lucky. And I'm still grateful for the Yankees for swaggering in to the debate with Montero so that the Rangers were willing to pony up Smoak. We probably would have gotten Mitch Moreland as an offer otherwise, which is still good...but I think Smoak will have the better career by a decent margin when park factors are accounted for.
And the other pieces might not have been as good either. It was as good a deal as I could have ever expected to see for the rental of Lee, but it was right-place, right-time...twice in one year.
Too bad we need Jack to do it again, and maybe one more time after that, just to dig out of this hole.
~G