If USSM was suggesting we trade Morrow to the Brewers for Hardy, I'm suggesting the USSM enjoys too much cannibus.
Morrow, if he gets traded at all, would be in a deal to the Nats for Dunn...that's the only high profile player who is available in trade who I'd be willing to move Morrow for. My questions about Morrow's mental make-up, his durability, and his econdary pitchers make him the high-value piece I move in trade if I'm getting something I REALLY need. Hardy is not something I really need. He's an "it would be nice if I could get..." I learned from my father's Navy background...when you make plans and have to spend resources on those plans...you don't start with the dream scenario...you don't ask when you WANT to accomplish. You ask what you NEED to accomplish.
I will disagree with you a tad on the triple-move commentary....you said acquiring Hardy, Hudson and Danks moved the org problem from SS to 2B...I say O-Hud is a much better fit for Safeco Field and a better bet to age well than Hardy. So no...I think after that swap, the Mariners' problem is still squarely at shortstop.
Q. OK, Hardy's sabermetrics are on scary trend. How about from a scouting standpoint?
A. A lot depends on whether you consider the Milwaukee Brewers MLB (TM) organization to offer any valid scouting on the subject.
If so, you watched as the Brew tossed him overboard to the sharks and, just to make sure he couldn't scale the hull on the way back, followed it up with a shark-chum bucket chaser.
I mean, he could rebound, like Bill Hall could. But slap me silly! For your own org to send four guys to grab wrists and ankles and heave-ho you, right after a great season?!
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Avast, ye lubbers. Think it over. Imagine that in June 2010, the Mariners sent Franklin Gutierrez to Tacoma, never to return, hey who'll give us something for him? What the deuce would it TAKE to cause that to happen?
Hardy's own team watched that LD% across five years, watched him swing behind fastballs, watched what the pitchers were doing, and then waved him off in disgust.
You and I, behind our monitors, are going to trump that with our, "Hey! This guy's a proven All-Star!" from Seattle? I think not, Peppermint Patty sir.
What, you think the Brewers front office got stupid because Jack Zduriencik and Tony Blengino left? What does their opinion count with you, compared to the opinions of the bloggers in Seattle? The grandmasters have sunk-cost one of their most important young players. Yowch.
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I don't expect Hardy to rebound with the bat, no. When last seen, he was squaring up the pitchers in a whopping 1-in-7 AB's and fly-fishing for low-away sliders like Miguel Olivo.
It's not buying low. Buying low is when a guy has a dip in his sine wave, like Erik Bedard 2009 or Ichiro 2008 or Washburn this winter. Taking J.J. Hardy is accepting a reclamation project. That's okay, but know the difference.
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Q. Well, the Brewers had Escobar ready.
A. Yeah, and the Mariners are going to have Ackley ready. Does that mean they'll "cancel" Franklin Gutierrez with a 9mm if a hot prospect comes up at his position?
J.J. Hardy was one whale of a valuable commodity for the Brewers, mate.
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Q. How was the Nashville takeout, by the way?
A. 70 AB's, hit like Jose Lopez again -- .260/.290/.460, tons of pulled groundballs, 4 homers.
Huge platoon split, plastered LHP, but posted an OBP of .240 against triple-A righthanders.
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Q. The good, the bad, and the ugly leaves us where?
A. If you want a pick-it SS, chip in with the bat where he can, maybe a 10%, 20% chance of recapturing the old glory, I'm good with the guy. (He's also got a 10%, 20% chance of never playing effectively in the big leagues again -- 90% chance, according to the Milwaukee Brewers.)
I don't want to swap him out for Jose Lopez* and I blamed sure ain't giving you Brandon Morrow or Dustin Ackley or Matt Tuiasosopo for him, but he'd be a legit solution to the 2010-11 shortstop problemos.
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Q. You'd rather have Jack Wilson or J.J. Hardy if it were the same $5M in 2010?
A. Well, Wilson is a legit 15-20 runs saved with the mitt; Hardy is 10; Hardy offers a potentially (somewhat) better bat.
It's roughly a push. I'm not trading you one of my best player for the delta between two NL Central glove specialists, but if you can get Hardy cheap, I'll plump for him over Jack Wilson.
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From a WAR standpoint, Hardy used to be a +4 wins and last year was +1, granting the UZR figures. I'm figuring him to bounce back to 2.0 ... but then again, that's Jack Wilson's level, +2.0. And with the same template: good glove, poor bat. Hardy is less extreme with the plus glove and minus bat.
For D-O-V, adding Hardy (or any other glove SS) is an isolated, measured step forward. I wouldn't tear apart the fabric of what I have to get it done, but I'd like to see it in isolation.
My $0.02,
Dr D
Comments
I didn't say it, so of course you didn't infer it, but am referring to the Hudson* move as the variable here.
If you were to deal Morrow for Hardy and Lopez-Lowe-plus for Danks, and let's say that Orlando Hudson doesn't want to come to the tough league, then your problem has been moved to 2B.
Shoulda been in the post :- )
I suppose there's room for that much disagreement as to what value Brandon Morrow has. This is obviously one of the places where you and I would veer quite a ways off from their proposal.
I value J.J. Hardy quite a bit less, and Morrow quite a bit more, than they do... and probably Lopez and Mark Lowe more.
But it's within the realm of reason -- in an expert Ultra roto league, I'd expect to find a couple of owners who would give me Morrow, Lopez, Wilson* and Mark Lowe in return for Danks, Hardy, and Hudson, even considering Morrow's service time.
And I'd trade them, too. I think Morrow is within 10, 15 starts of getting on top of his pitches and becoming at least as good as John Danks, and Morrow has much more time left on his club-controls clock. At the moment Brandon Morrow jells, that 3-for-3 is hari-kiri. Until he does, though, John Danks' fine pitching makes the 3-for-3 interesting.
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To boot, I'm devoting about $5M more in salary, along with Mark Lowe, in order to make that 3-for-3 when the whole 3-for-3 is about a push to me anyway (considering Morrow's service time remaining).
Mark Lowe is no small commodity to the Mariners. He and the white-knuckle Aardsma are the only two talented short relievers we have right now...
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My real question about this plan is that if the 3-for-3 is mostly a lateral, zero-net proposition... then your only improvement would be Nick Johnson, if he stays on the field.
Rather keep my 3, spend the $5m savings on even more talent, get Dunn instead of NJ, and swap out Hudson/Wilson for Scutaro.
Be a fun winter, won't it :- )
Misunderstood your point...but yes...Hudson not coming here would screw up the plan...that's for sure. :)
Incidentally...I dislike BOTH of those deals. Danks is an OK pitcher, but Lopez AND Lowe for him? PASS
Is a position rich with debate possibility. :- )
I like the idea of trading players to fit their parks better. And John Danks is a legit #2-3 with a much higher REL score than, say, Bedard, Morrow, or Snell. I like the REL factor.
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But: is Safeco really a bad fit for Lopez? It's a bad fit for RH pull hitters in the abstract, but it just so happens that Jose's HR scatterchart clears the scoreboard out there in LF.
Lopez is, it says here, either going to stay the same (2.6 WAR) or bust out; Danks regressed a bit in 2009 (K/BB dropped from 2.8 to 2.0) and is either going to stay the same (2.9 WAR) or get worse -- or injured, him being a young SP. Could be a buy-high sell-low scenario.
In roto, I probably don't trade you Lopez for Danks even-up, unless I have a surplus of infielders and am short in pitching.
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Do the M's need IF's more or SP's more?
Not trying to bust anybody's chops. It's a cool trade idea, this 3-for-3, and worth consideration.
When we talk about such a simple plan as, "add Scutaro, trade for Dunn, and sign Bedard/Harden/Sheets," obviously we're leaving out 50 trade possibilities that are beknownst to Capt Jack.
Gimme those trade possibilities and I'll do a whale of a lot better than sitting here with a 2-D transparency and magic marker. :- )
Zduriencik probably has a 20 step plan with 12 different contingencies for the winter written on his war-room board along with his complete depth charts and scouting info. So yes...I'm gumming at nothing here...like a 10-month old who takes an hour to chew through a Starburst. :) But I like my plan a heck of a lot better than I like the USSM plan. And that's what the hot stove is for...gumming at nothing and working yourself into a geeky frenzy imagining the possibilities. :)
Pointing out ultimately meaningless, but nonetheless tantalizing, box score lines like this one from Lara:
Saunders CF 3-for-5, HR
For anyone wishing to geek out on such things, this page has all the fall/winter stats with links to each MLB org's players as well as each of the leagues: http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/
If you only want Mariners, or want to instantly see if Ackley is getting more hits in Arizona than Saunders is in Venezuela: http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/org.jsp?id=sea
I agree with Doc here. Earlier in the season Hardy was one of my targets, but you have to be concerned about the true decline in his bat.. It may not recover. Seeing how well some NL hitters have translated over, thats another concern.
I'm all for trading Morrow, but not for Hardy most likely. Definetly not for Dunn either unless the Nats pick up his entire '10 contract and throw in some talent.
I think Lopez+Lowe+Vargas for Danks is hilariously one-sided for the Mariners. I can't see the White Sox accepting that deal.
Lopez just had a career year with the bat and glove (per UZR) and was worth a measly 2.6 WAR. Danks LAST YEAR in a launchpad in the AL, was a 5+ WAR lefty SP. Even this year Danks was more valuable, and you are comparing a down year to a career year.
That trade is so one-sided its rediculous. Lopez would be a nice start, but you'd need to add another significant piece to get in the discussion for Danks IMO.
Either you don't like Dunn at all (which is irrational if he's a DH)...or you think Morrow is an ace already. Sorry...but I'd do Morrow for Dunn in a heartbeat.
...Lopez *didn't* have a career year...he had a plateau jump. At least that's how *I'M* valuing Lopez.
Here, if you please